UOL gets a writedown. What should investors do?By Gwyneth Yeo
SINGAPORE (Aug 5): Market watchers are staying positive on UOL Group, despite the unexpected $19.6 million fair value loss from the revaluation of its investment properties in 2Q16.
UBS, DBS and CIMB are maintaining their “buy” recommendations for the stock, with target prices of $7.55, $7.20, and $7.96 respectively. Morgan Stanley is maintaining its “equal weight” rating.
To recap, UOL’s 1H16 earnings declined 36% to $145.9 million. This came on the back of a $19.6 million fair value loss, and $7.1 million in net acquisition cost.
According to UBS analyst Michael Lim, the net fair value losses “came as a surprise, as peers are still reporting positive to flat revaluations”.
UOL had written down most of its retail and office valuations, with the exception of OneKM, where spot rents are weaker though cap rates remained unchanged.
Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Ng on the other hand pointed out that UOL's portfolio of offices and malls had recorded positive rental reversions during the period, particularly at Velocity and Novena Square. “82% of leases due this year have already been renewed, limiting the scope for any negative surprises,” says Ng in a note on Thursday.
In the residential segment, revenue rose 14% from the progressive billings and higher sales rate at ongoing projects Botanique at Bartley and Riverbank at Fernvale, and the maiden contribution from Principal Garden.
On top of that, Seventy St Patrick’s is expected to be completed in 3QFY2016 while Riverbank @ Fernvale will be completed by 1QFY2017. “To extend further earnings visibility, UOL is planning to launch its Park Eleven project in Changning in 3Q and the 505-unit Clementi Ave 1 project in 1Q17,” says CIMB’s Lock Mun Yee.
However, performance of the group’s hotel segment was more mixed. Hotel revenue rose 3%, on the back of better results in Australia, but revenue per available room for its Singapore hotels fell 1–2%.
“Management commented that land bid prices were elevated due to intense competition in recent biddings. As domestic growth slows, we think overseas acquisitions in the target markets of the UK, China and Australia could gather pace,” says Lim.
Even so, DBS analyst Rachel Tan points out that shares of UOL are currently trading at
13 times FY2017 forecast earnings, which is “below the lower end of its historical range, making it one of the cheapest large cap landlords in Singapore”.
Shares in UOL closed 0.2% loer at $5.83.
Source: The Edge
http://smr.theedgemarkets.com/article/u ... 9-87358173
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"