Short-Selling, Puts & Inverse ETFs 02 (Feb 12 - Dec 25)

[kennynah]

my guess is... it will plummet to the abyss

[winston]

Looks like HK is still strong.

240 points drop in the Dow and it's only down 30 points.

Shorting opportunity ?

[kennynah]

very strong boss...

[winston]

TOL:-

Will the market correct after the January effect, say in the third week of Jamuary, 2013 ?

[winston]

TOL:-

With the very negative lead from the US, is it time to buy some puts, first thing on Monday morning ?

But isn't it a half-day of trading on Monday ?

And would you want to carry forward a short position over a public holiday ?

In addition, is the set-up in place already ? Can you really see that H&S, "M" or "Triple Top" ?

[profittaker]

I entered 2 bet of side way market based on technical.

However, with the fiscal cliff, I guess many people has try to avoid being in-the-market, for obvious reason of unknown volatility.

To me, this explains the decreasing volume from the downwards movement which looks like decreasing selling pressure on chart.

I think the real picture is because of the unknown volatility, coupled with holiday, volume is thin and it is easy to move price up and down.

[winston]

And the US market is up > 1% when everyone on CNBC Friday, was talking about the Fiscal Cliff with at least a 150 points drop on Monday US Trading ...

Reminder: No "M", No "Triple Top", No "H&S" .... No set-up

[winston]

Am reminding myself of the following:-

1. January Effect where Fund Managers are normally more aggresive at the beginning of a new year

2. Money flowing in from a new month

3. Fiscal Cliff solution

4. Bonus Time

[winston]

Never short a dull market By Kevin Marder

Activity quiets down on the New York Stock Exchange, as shares settle into their two-week range.

Wednesday's high-low spread in the futures was the second-narrowest in the last 10 sessions. Price closes in the upper portion of each day's travel range recently.

The chart below shows the vaults of Dec. 31 and Jan. 2, and their aftermath. The fact that price has scarcely dipped since then objectively says that institutions are not selling into this rally.

For the most part, they are content to sit on positions and are not interested in locking in profits.

All of this adds up to a market that wants to go higher.

If this was the end of a bull market, the Dec. 31-Jan. 2 move would have been used as an opportunity to dump positions. Institutions begin to sell into a rising market which provides the demand for the shares they need to off.

Of course, this could begin to change tomorrow. But for most speculators and shorter-term traders, it is best to stay in synch with the trend — i.e. what the market has already done — and not try to predict when that will turn. And at this moment the trend is up.

It is to be noted that volatility is mean-reverting. In theory, this means it will go from one extreme to something closer to an average. In reality, volatility will often overshoot the average and go to the opposite extreme. As the above S&P chart shows, the extreme of two wide-range days yielded to the opposite extreme, a series of very-narrow range bars.

Thus, the current low-volatility action is expected to yield to something more dynamic. Because most consolidation periods, which is what the averages are currently in, tend to result in upward revaluation, this is a likely prospect.

Volatility tends to be high early in a bull and late in a bull. This is true not only for the averages but also for individual issues. The end of a bull market is normally characterized by choppy, back-and-forth activity. Big swings that do not produce much upward price progress. This has yet to be seen.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/never- ... lcountdown

[winston]

Trader’s Mystery $11.25 Million Options Bet

An ‘options trader’ has made a $11.25 million dollar ‘bet’ that something very bad will happen within the next 60 days.

What does this person know that we don’t?

According to this story from Business Insider, we all need to be very alert over the next two months.

http://www.stuartwilde.com/2013/02/trad ... tions-bet/