China - Market Direction 01 (May 12 - Jul 15)

[iam802]

中国铁道部等国营大企财务风险〝极大〞

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwHJrdyA ... re=g-all-u

[winston]

China shares hurt by report on fund redemptions

* Report on A-share ETF redemptions hits mainland investors

HONG KONG, Nov 6 (Reuters) - China shares were headed for their worst day since Oct. 26 and weighing on the Hong Kong market, with retail investors worried by a state media report about substantial redemptions of the mainland's exchange-traded funds (ETF) last week.

"If redemptions were so high last week when the market had a good week, it shows that institutional investors still lack confidence in the market and retail investors have reacted accordingly," said Cao Xuefeng, head of research at Huaxi Securities in Chengdu.

The state-run China Securities Journal reported on Tuesday that last week was the fifth one this year, in which redemptions by institutional investors in ETFs tracking mainland markets topped 2 billion units.

Source: Reuters

[winston]

“Giant Multi-Year Flag” pattern in China is about to end! by Chris Kimble

Power of the Pattern suggested the Shanghai index was due a bounce weeks ago and that has taken place, over the past few weeks! (see "Bounce due" here)

Of late the China ETF (FXI) has outperformed the S&P 500 by 14% in the past 60 days. This rally has taken FXI to the top of a multi-year flag pattern. This pattern has to end soon as a breakdown/breakout will take place.

The U.S. is caught up in the elections, don't over look how important this pattern is to the world and the message it will send!!!

Continued strength in FXI would send a positive message to global stock markets and basic materials!

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http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com ... ut-to-end/

[winston]

CHINA BULLS: GET READY FOR AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT by Jeff Clark

China bears take note…

Today's chart shows the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index (SSEC). This index is like the "Dow Industrials of China." It tracks the price action in the country's most important equities.

For much of the past three years, this index has slumped. But as you can see in the chart below, China is slowly turning bullish.

The SSEC shows the potential for an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. This is a bottoming formation, which usually indicates the reversal of a trend from bearish to bullish.

The pattern starts to form when a chart hits a new low, as the SSEC did in October. It then rallies and breaks the trend of lower highs.

If the next decline fails to make a lower low before it starts to rally again, the potential for a trend reversal is in place.

If the SSEC can break above the neckline (the blue line) of the pattern – at about 2,130 – it should be a quick trip up to the next resistance line near 2,250 (the red line).

Source: Daily Wealth

[winston]

Maybe all B Shares will be converted to H shares ...

CIMC unveils mechanism for changing B shrs into H shrs

CIMC unveiled its guidelines for changing its B shares into H shares.

After the conversion, H shares of CMIC will be traded within the borders of China under the code '299901' and there will be no restrictions on intraday volatility.

For domestic investors who do not sell their CIMC B shares held on the very last trading day of these B shares, they can only hold the H shares or sell the H shares after the conversion and cannot buy CIMC H shares.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[behappyalways]

got this from a website.....

看看中国新一届领导班子名单，就知道股市快止跌了：洗尽贫，立刻强，涨得奖，预正升，量云山，望齐山，涨高哩

[winston]

H-share dividend tax may double by Natallie Cai

Local investors who trade H shares for the short term, may have to pay a dividend tax of up to 20 percent - double that of the current level.

China's Ministry of Finance on Friday said individuals who hold an A share for less than one month have to pay a dividend tax of 20 percent from January 1.

Those who keep a stock between one month and one year will be levied a tax of 10 percent. Investors who sell a stock after holding it for more than one year will be charged a 5 percent dividend tax.

At present, dividend tax is fixed at 10 percent for those who hold A and H shares.

H-share holders may have to pay a higher levy if local authorities agree to adopt Beijing's new tax scheme, said Core-Pacific Yamaichi head of research Castor Pang Wai-sun. "But Hong Kong will not follow the mainland 100 percent."

Pang also noted there could be technical obstacles in processing the new tax scheme.

"It is hard to figure out exactly how long H-share investors have held their stocks, as most of them trade through brokerages' accounts," Pang said.

Local brokerages are not allowed to disclose the stock position of investors to a third party without obtaining approval, Pang added.

First Shanghai Securities chief strategist Linus Yip Sheung-chi said even if dividend taxes were raised for H-share investors, it would not have much of an impact on the local market, because "sentiment is already sluggish."


http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_deta ... 21119&fc=1

[winston]

Could the Shanghai index fall 28% again? Impact U.S. broad market? by Chris Kimble

The Power of the Pattern reflected that the Shanghai Index was starting to break support on May 25th, 2011 at (1) in the chart below.

What has happened since this break of support? The Shanghai index has declined 28% since the breakdown!

Now the Shanghai index is breaking down from another large flag pattern in the chart below at (2).

Could this index fall another 28% on a breakdown of this multi-year flag pattern? I don't know!

I do know this... the breakdown last year impacted emerging markets a great deal and U.S. markets (SPY) for a while.

A further breakdown from here should be respected and odds are high would impact emerging markets again!


http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com ... -28-again/

[winston]

THE BEAR MARKET IN CHINA CONTINUES by Brian Hunt

The market keeps siding with the bears in the big China debate…

Regular readers know China is the center of a great financial debate. Some world-class analysts and investors, including Jim Chanos, say the country is a powder keg of government malinvestment… which will cause a big economic slowdown.

On the other hand, you have many "China bulls," who say the bearish arguments are overblown and overhyped.

China is a major cog in the world economy, so this debate is worth monitoring. One way to monitor it is with the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index (SSEC). You can think of it as the "Dow Industrials of China." It tracks the largest and most important Chinese companies.

The Shanghai Index has been in a bear market for several years. Back in September, it reached a low of 2,004. This looked like a potential bottom for Chinese stocks. The index rallied past the 2,100 level.

But in just the past few weeks, it dropped below 2,000… and struck its lowest level since January 2009. The bear market in China continues… but our interest in buying "left for dead" assets is now piqued.

Source: Daily Wealth

[winston]

China's retail investors have given up on the stock market; could we be approaching the bottom?

China's retail investors have lost all confidence in the nation's stock market.

In spite of improving economic fundamentals (see discussion), the market continues to plunge.

Unlike many other emerging markets, China's domestic stock market trading is dominated by retail investors.

And many feel they have been duped, as the market hits new lows.

http://soberlook.com/2012/11/chinas-ret ... en-up.html