HK - Market Direction 01 (Jan 12 - Jul 15)

[winston]

DJ MARKET TALK: HK Market Too Excited About CNY1T Stimulus - Citi

1323 [Dow Jones] Citi believes "the (Hong Kong) market is getting too excited about NDRC's latest approval of infrastructure projects;"

It says CNY1 trillion should create extra demand of 60 million tons for cement and 18 million tons for steel, and bearing in mind construction periods of 2-3 years for infrastructure projects, it thinks the demand surplus will average less than 1% per year.

The house adds, the CNY4 trillion post-GFC stimulus "created short-term gain and long-term pain," and "decapacity is the only way to go" for China's metals and mining sector.

Citi's tops Sells are China National Building Material (3323.HK) and Maanshan Steel (0323.HK). CNBM retreats 1.7% to HK$7.73 and Maanshan is down 3.4% at HK$1.70. ([email protected])


Source: Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

[winston]

DJ MARKET TALK: Kim Eng Names HK-Listed QE3 Beneficiaries

1252 [Dow Jones] Kim Eng names Asian stocks that could benefit from QE3; those in Hong Kong include:
1. retailers and manufacturers selling to the U.S. such as Li & Fung (0494.HK), Techtronic (0669.HK) and Johnson Electric (0179.HK);
2. transport names like Orient Overseas (0316.HK), Cosco Pacific (1199.HK) and Cathay Pacific (0293.HK) (more freight exposure than Singapore Airlines),
3. container makers like Singamas (0716.HK).

It adds, energy and commodities will only benefit with a lag given the high inventory still being piled up in China;

Ship builders will also benefit with a lag, given excess capacity in shipping.

Kim Eng adds that the other QE3 beneficiary is property names (both developers and investors) in Asia, especially in HK and Singapore due to the prospects of further global liquidity inflows.

Source: Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

[winston]

HK closed on Monday & Tuesday next week ?

[winston]

Resistance is at 21,600 and support should be at around 19,700. The index closed at 20,840 last week.

We are in the middle of the range and our short-term strategy is to remain prudent.


Source: Dr. Check, The Standard HK

[winston]

TOL:-

Looks like HK is coming back and not reacting to the 200 points drop on the Dow.

Shorting opportunity ?

Or time to be careful ?

Didnt they say that the trend is your friend ?

[winston]

HK closed today for the Chung Yeung festival.

[winston]

As for the Hang Seng Index, it has cleared the 52-week high - 21,680 - this year. It now stands at 21,688.

An immediate correction is possible.

Meanwhile, the continued strength in the Hong Kong dollar is a clear reflection of more hot money flowing into the SAR due to the US Federal Reserve's third round of quantitative easing.

This inflow is likely to grow.

The next resistance level for the HSI is around 22,500.

It now looks safe to buy select picks on dips - preferably local and mainland property shares along with those of cement and glass makers.


Source: Dr Check, The Standard HK

[kennynah]

wow...strong...

[winston]

On CNBC:-

Guppy thinks that it's a buying opportunity

[winston]

Guppy on CNBC:-

Support: 22,500
Resistance: 24,500