Jim Rogers 02 (Jun 10 - Dec 26)

[winston]

Jim Rogers Talks EU, US Debt, Elections, Next Recession/Depression

A dapper Jim Rogers covers a number of important issues in the clip below.

Despite the Reuters interviewer, who acts almost as if she is speaking to a senile person, Rogers keeps his cool and seems as sharp as ever.

Key points:

• US needs to cut spending “with a chainsaw”.

• EU rescue will “absolutely not” work.

• Says Romney’s economic advisers “couldn’t be worse” than Obama’s, may be significantly better [count me skeptical on this point].

• Generally short stocks, long commodities.

• “Gold is going much higher over the decade.”

• “More interested in agriculture than anything else”.

• Buys Chinese Renminbi “whenever he gets the chance”.

• Thinks Facebook is sh1t (join the club).

http://www.bearishnews.com/post/5069

[winston]

Does it matter WHY the market is going up ? It only matters that it's going up. And Mr. Jim Rogers is short the market ...

Jim Rogers: This Stock Market Rally Will ‘End Terribly’ By Forrest Jones

Stocks have hit multi-year highs recently but are due for selloff since the gains have not been based on fundamentals but rather loose Federal Reserve policies marked by liquidity injections into the economy that have artificially propped up markets, said noted international investor Jim Rogers.

“The 30 percent gains since last October have been largely driven by one catalyst — the Fed,” Rogers told CNBC.

“The Federal Reserve is pumping huge amounts of money into the market,” Rogers said.

“This is a Federal Reserve rally. The money has to go somewhere and it’s going into the stock market and the commodity market.”

Those who timed the market right will do well, but most won’t.

”It’s going to end terribly,” Rogers said.

http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Rog ... /id/451547

[winston]

Jim Rogers to Moneynews: Now's the Time to Invest in Russia and the Ruble By Forrest Jones and Kathleen Walter

Russia and its currency represent very attractive investment venues, and investors looking to get in early should consider doing so now, says international investor Jim Rogers.

Political stability and a large economy make Russia a rising star.

"I am looking at Russia for the first time in my life, contemplating buying Russia. I am even looking at the ruble," Rogers told Newsmax.TV in an exclusive interview.

While he hasn't moved into Russia yet, Rogers said the investment environment has been making notable improvements under President Vladimir Putin.

"Russia has a freely convertible currency, despite what people may think.

Secondly, the Russians have been playing the wrong game for 95 years now. They kept promising that if you put your money in Russia, everything will be OK and we will protect you. But of course, they take it away from you or whatever," Roger said.

"Mr. Putin seems to be changing his attitude toward outside investors and toward inside investors, for that matter. He seems to be understanding that you can't just take money away from people, you can't just throw people in jail," Rogers added.

"He seems to be changing and if that is the case, and I am convinced it is, there are going to be pretty great opportunities in Russia, a staggeringly big country, lots of assets — it could be a great, great story."

Rogers adds that he owns the U.S. dollar due to the sheer demand for the currency, as investors in search of safe harbor are snapping it up due to its liquidity and not necessarily because of U.S. economic fundamentals.

The official Chinese currency, the renminbi, is a good buy as well though buying into China can be difficult at times.

Other currencies worth mentioning include the Hong Kong dollar and the Swiss franc since they are pegged to the U.S. dollar and euro respectively, meaning if things turn south in Brussels or Washington, monetary authorities in Hong Kong and Switzerland can tweak with their exchange rates to protect the currencies' values.

Stay away from stocks now that the Federal Reserve has made it official that a third round of quantitative easing is under way.

"Normally what the market does is it rallies in anticipation of good news, and then when the good news comes it does something else. So I would suspect we are not going to have much strength for a while."

Commodities, meanwhile, remain the way to go under such ultra-loose policies.

"Either the world economy is going to get better and commodities are going to go up because of shortages, or they are going to print more money, and throughout history when they printed a lot of money, you protect yourself by owning real assets."


Source: Moneynews

http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Rog ... /id/457859

[winston]

Jim Rogers: Bernanke ‘Has Never Been Right About Anything’ as Fed Chairman By Dan Weil

Renowned investor Jim Rogers continues to blast Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke for the Fed’s massive easing campaign.

"He's never been right about anything since he's been in Washington," Rogers tells Yahoo. Bernanke has served as Fed chairman since 2006.

Bernanke gave a speech this week saying emerging markets should allow their currencies to strengthen, as a result of the Fed’s easing and thereby stanch a flood of incoming investment.

Rogers wasn’t impressed by that reasoning. "Mr. Bernanke does not understand anything about currencies,” the former hedge fund partner of George Soros says.

“He does not understand finance. He does not understand economics. All he understands is money printing. That's the man's whole intellectual career."

Bernanke has taught economics at Princeton, New York and Stanford Universities.

Meanwhile, Rogers remains long gold, as he has been for most of the metal’s 12-year rally. But he worries about excess speculation in commodities markets.

The SPDR Gold Shares exchange-traded fund, many investors’ favorite vehicle for gold speculation, has $74 billion of assets – gold.

Many market participants have grown bullish on gold in recent weeks, thanks to renewed easing by central banks around the world.

http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Rog ... /id/460324

[winston]

Jim Rogers On Russia

With a cool down in China, Jim Rogers is looking around the globe for areas of growth. One of the countries he is looking at is Russia and it’s abundant natural resources including natural gas and oil.

Jim Rogers has been a big bear on Russia and its economy due in large part to corruption and its unwillingness to open up to foreign investment. But something has changed in the last couple of months that has Jim Rogers optimistic about the Eurosian country. Among those positive changes are structural reforms in the way it does business.

At the moment Jim Rogers does not have any investments in Russia but is looking for opportunities such at equities or possibly its currency.

At the same time, Jim is more opportunist about China but is bullish on both. Keep in mind, Russia has many of the natural resources that China needs such as oil.

Finally, Jim mentions he continues to be bullish on agriculture whether it be stocks, commodities or investing in companies that develop farms.

Other topics covered in this 20+ minute interview is the possibility of a U.S. fiscal cliff, emerging markets, Asia. Around the 15th minute Jim Rogers mentions some of the reasons why he was bearish on Russia and avoided the Kremlin economy for half a century.

http://www.allthingsjimrogers.com/2012/ ... on-russia/

[winston]

Jim Rogers: Obama Re-election Will Spark Soaring Inflation By Forrest Jones

A newly re-elected President Barack Obama will continue encouraging loose monetary policies that will fuel inflation rates down the road, and investors need to get ready now, said famed commodities investor Jim Rogers.

Now that Obama is set to preside for another four years, expect the Fed to keep monetary policy loose with the aim of spurring investing and hiring, when in reality, inflation rates are on the rise.

“It’s going to be more inflation, more money printing, more debt, more spending,” Rogers told CNBC just prior to Obama's re-election.

Investors should avoid U.S. government debt and the dollar and stock up on gold.

Source: Moneynews

http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Rog ... /id/463179

[winston]

Jim Rogers: Market turmoil ahead By Anjani Trivedi

(CNN) -- Investor Jim Rogers tells CNN to expect choppy investment waters in the years to come.

"I would be very careful. The next couple years we're going to have turmoil and problems in most financial markets," Rogers told CNN's Andrew Stevens.

"Don't invest in anything unless you, yourself know about it. Don't listen to some guy you see on TV -- even if it's me," added Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros.

"You only stay with what you know and if all you know is money in the bank, put the money in the bank."

With worried investors and a re-elected U.S. President, Rogers said he doubts much is set to change as the U.S. Congress faces impasse on the ominous 'fiscal cliff', the December 31 deadline of automatic spending cuts and tax increases that threatens to send the American economy into recession.

"We have the same president, the same Senate, the same House, the same central bank, the same everything. There's not going to be much change.

They're all going to fumble around and grapple with it," Rogers said, "But in the end, they're going to make mistakes -- you and I, and everybody else in the world are going to be worse off.

The debt is going to go higher, the spending is going to go higher and they are going to make mistakes."

"This is not something that's scientific...look it up -- it's historic," he said. "All you have to do is read economics and all you have to do is read history. Eventually your currency becomes less and less attractive to foreigners... there's more currency turmoil."

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/11/09/busin ... index.html

[winston]

Jim Rogers is Betting Against this Entire Sector, Should You Too ? By Joseph Hogue

Billionaire investor Jim Rogers may be most famous for calling the bottom of the commodities marketand buying in 1999, just before it surged 22% during the following three years while the S&P 500 lost almost 40% in the same period.

But the co-founder of the Quantum Funds with George Soros could be just as famous for some of his warnings. In a 2007 interview with Reuters, Rogers predicted a 40-50% drop in real estate prices in some areas of the United States and a massive recession across the country.

We all know how that prediction turned out.

So it’s no surprise investors take note when the legendary investor makes any market prediction. And Rogers is now warning that one sector of the market is “priced in lunacy,” so he is betting heavily against the group.

The sector has seen earnings fall by 4.3% in the third quarter compared with the same period last year, almost double the decline of 2.2% for the overall market.

So which sector could be headed for a big drop?

Rogers is talking about technology.

Bears have a lot to growl about…

To be sure, there are several reasons the technology sector is due for a correction. The sector outperformed all others during the past four years with an annualized gain of 19%, while the S&P 500 Index gained 12% in the same period. This outperformance may already be working itself out with a drop of 10% so far this quarter compared with a decline of 6% in the rest of the market.

In terms of valuation, the stocks in the Technology Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLK), for example, currently trade for about 13 times trailing earnings, which is right at the average for the overall market, but higher than that of the financials and energy sectors.

And dividend yields are not as good either. While many of the big players such as Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) and Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) have started to pay dividends, the sector as a whole only pays a 1.7% dividend yield compared to an average of 2.1% in the overall market.

Of more concern, four years after the financial collapse, U.S. companies have yet to really ramp up hiring. While Europe and China are looking incrementally better, the United States is facing a huge fiscal gap in the coming quarters, with even the most optimistic forecasts only calling for about 1.5% gross domestic product growth. With labor already cut to the bone, companies are putting off improvements in tech spending ahead of the fiscal and economic uncertainty.

One big clue to the level of frothiness in the tech sector could be coming from the rebound in real estate prices in Silicon Valley. Real estate has soared in the tech capital and prices are off their peak by just 1.3% in some cities, while much of the rest of the state continues to struggle with foreclosures.

Bulls still have room to run in individual stocks

There may yet be hope for the sector. Tech companies in the United States earn more revenue outside U.S. borders than any other sector, making the tech industry more resistant to fiscal cliff worries and weakness here at home. Revenue should be marginally supported if Europe can stage a rebound or if emerging markets continue their economic march higher.

President Barack Obama will need to barter with Congress if he wants to let the Bush-era tax cuts expire for those making more than $250,000 a year. One possible deal could revolve around another tax repatriation holiday like we saw in 2004.

Under a repatriation holiday, U.S. companies are lured to bring foreign profits back to the country by taxing them at a roughly 5% tax rate, rather than the current 35% corporate rate. Because the tech sector has the most overseas revenue, it also has the most cash held overseas, so it could win big with such a tax holiday.

In addition, Microsoft launched Windows 8 in October and will stop supporting Windows XP in early-2014. This could reinvigorate the corporate spending cycle for information technology (IT) and services. Further, if demand in fact rebounds, then tech spending usually leads the business cycle because it is easier to buy IT and services than to add staff.

Quality and value vs. hopes and dreams

Even Rogers admits there will always be success stories, but the problem is when an entire sector is pushed up without any real difference between the good and the bad. This was evident in some of this year’s catastrophic IPOs – Facebook (Nasdaq: FB) and Groupon (Nasdaq: GRPN).

Investors seem to have forgotten the lessons of the 2000 tech bubble, and are now paying meteoric prices for very little in earnings. While Groupon and Facebook have seen their shares sink since their IPOs, shares of LinkedIn (NYSE: LNKD) are up almost 10% since its offering in May 2011. LinkedIn is basically Facebook for professionals and does not command nearly the audience, so why is it that shares are trading for more than 665 times trailing earnings?

Only a handful of other stocks in the market trade so expensively, and they are all small or mid-cap companies. Earnings are down during the last two quarters and the company has yet to present a clear strategy to monetize on mobile usage.

While there are plenty more examples of unrealistic prices in the tech sector, there are also some good deals. I wrote in September about the once-in-a-decade opportunity in Intel (Nasdaq: INTC). The shares trade for just 8.8 times earnings and pay a 4.5% dividend yield. Investors are worried that the emergence of smartphones and tablets will make PCs obsolete, but, as I mentioned before, there are several catalysts coming next year that could send the stock dramatically higher. The company is extremely well-run, with an operating margin higher than 95% of peers in the industry and has bought back $1.4 million in shares this past quarter.

http://www.yolohub.com/trading/jim-roge ... ld-you-too

[winston]

Jim Rogers: Gold Correction Could Drag on into 2013 By Forrest Jones

Gold prices have been falling lately as investors ditch the yellow metal and opt for the safe-haven U.S. dollar, a trend that could carry on into 2013, said noted commodities investor Jim Rogers.

Fears the United States may careen over the dreaded fiscal cliff and go into a recession have sparked heavy safe-haven demand for the dollar, a popular asset in times of uncertainty that traditionally moves inversely from gold.

Spurts of optimism have typically seen investors ditch the dollar and chase nicely priced equities over gold since inflationary pressures remain at bay.

Gold prices, which rose for over a decade, are trading a little over $1,665 an ounce, down from a record of over $1,920 an ounce hit in late 2011.

Now might not be the time to dive back in.

“Just be careful, there’re too many bulls, including me, but I’m very cautious,” Rogers told CNBC.

“Gold is having a correction — it’s been correcting for 15 to 16 months now — which is normal in my view, and it’s possible that [the] correction is going to continue for a while longer.”

Gold bullion experienced its last major correction during the financial crisis of 2008, contracting 32 percent.

“Most things correct 30 percent every year or two, even in big bull markets — 30 percent corrections are normal and yet gold has only done that once in the past 12 years,” he said.

“Gold on any kind of historic market basis is overdue for a nice correction.”

Waning physical demand in India should dampen prices as well despite loose monetary policies in the west that debase paper currencies to stimulate their economies, a recipe for rising gold prices.

“India’s got a big balance of trade deficit — some Indian politicians are starting to blame it on gold,” Rogers added.

“[If they] figure out a way to cut or crimp imports of gold — if something like that happens — that will be a big shock to all those bulls on gold and who knows how low it can go.”

Still, the Federal Reserve has said monetary policy will stay loose, while in Japan, incoming Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has said he wants to see more aggressive monetary easing at the Bank of Japan, which would weaken the yen and boost the yellow metal’s appeal.

Other investors say despite gold’s recent downturn, the future still looks bright.

“Near-term gold sentiment is under pressure, but further out, the view remains positive and in that sense current weakness ought to be considered a good buying opportunity,” Edel Tully, a London-based analyst at UBS, said in a report, according to Bloomberg.

http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Rog ... /id/468377

[winston]

More Raw Footage from ‘The Bubble’ – Jim Rogers

Another brilliant series of raw cuts, this time featuring legendary investor Jim Rogers, from the upcoming film The Bubble.

Of the hundreds of interviews I’ve seen with Mr. Rogers, this is possibly the best. Why? Probably due to the fact that the film’s writer, Thomas Woods, is an Austrian/free-market economist like Rogers.

“American finance is going to be in a (relative) decline for the next 2 or 3 decades… 10 years ago, most IPOs were done in NY…”

“It will be good for us all when this central bank eventually disappears…”

http://www.bearishnews.com/post/5234