China - Market Direction 01 (May 12 - Jul 15)

[winston]

Guppy on CNBC:-

Resistance at 2300 then 2400.

[winston]

This Sector Is Offering Up Some Bargains… Get Ready to Buy By Jeff Clark

China bears, watch out. There's been a bull sighting in the streets of Shanghai.

We've been bearish on Chinese stocks for most of the past two-and-a-half years. During that time, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (the SSEC) has fallen 37%.

And there really hasn't been any reason to change our bearish stance. Heck, we even reiterated our dislike for Chinese stocks just three months ago.

But after last week's action, it may be time to turn bullish. Take a look…

The SSEC just busted out to the upside of a several-months-long falling-wedge pattern. As we've seen many times before, these sorts of breakouts often signal important intermediate-term trend changes – especially when there's positive divergence on the MACD momentum indicator (the bottom part of the chart).

Typically, when a chart breaks out of this pattern, it explodes higher toward resistance – which is around 2,170 in this case – and then comes back down and retests the former resistance line of the wedge. That's when bulls get their chance to buy.

(Of course, we all know China's economy is slowing. But studies show there is no correlation between GDP growth and stock returns. And when you buy cheap, beaten-up stocks, you can make money no matter what a country's financial condition. For instance, Greek stocks are up 40% since June… And we know what a mess that country is in.)

Being short Chinese stocks has been a profitable strategy for the past couple years. But now, it looks like the long-term bear market is ending…

Traders should cover their bearish China bets now… or at least tighten up the stops on any profitable short sales. Then, if the SSEC drifts back down and retests its breakout level around 2,070, aggressive traders can start buying China. With the index down almost 40% from its high, there's bound to be a few good bargains.


Source: www.growthstockwire.com

[winston]

China closed for the whole week from Monday ?

[winston]

YET ANOTHER NEW LOW FOR CHINA STOCKS by Brian Hunt

The bears are still winning the great China debate…

Regular readers know China is the focus of a great investment debate. Some world-class analysts and traders, including Jim Chanos, say the country is a powder keg of bad government investment… which will cause a huge economic slowdown.

On the other hand, you have many "China bulls," who say the bearish arguments are overhyped.

We follow this debate by monitoring the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index. It's one of the most widely used gauges of Chinese equity prices. For much of the past three years, this index has slumped.

As you can see from today's chart, the slumping is getting worse. Just this week, the Shanghai Index plummeted to its lowest level since 2009. Corporate profits are slowing in China, and investors are fleeing.

In order to get optimistic on China, we'll need to see this awful bear market stop.


Source: Daily Wealth

[winston]

China Stocks to Rally Further After ‘Golden Week’ Break: Chartist By: Daryl Guppy

The Shanghai Composite Index made a new low near 1,999 on September 26 and then developed a good rally rebound. There is a high probability the rally will continue after the Golden week holiday that ends Friday.

This development has the potential to establish the conditions for a trend reversal. This type of trend reversal is first shown with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) Divergence reversal signal.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49250385

[winston]

Shanghai index NEEDS to bounce off of support right now! by Chris Kimble

The Shanghai index finds itself on two multi-year support lines at (2) in the above chart. Prior times this index has hit these support lines it has bounced!

Global markets and especially commodities, NEED this index to bounce off of these support lines!

Should this support set up fail, the Shanghai index would be sending a message that further slowing in China is still in the cards.

http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com ... right-now/

[winston]

J.P. Morgan Asset Management still bullish on Mainland property mkt, consumption industry on plenty of opportunities in greater China

Yip Yee Shun (葉義信), manager of J.P. Morgan Asset Management's greater China fund, said there are still opportunities to bet on Chinese stocks taking into consideration valuations and fundamentals although local GDP is weak.

J.P. Morgan is relatively bullish on Mainland property developers, cement sector and consumption industry.


Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

Suddenly, Everyone's Turning Bullish on China By: Ansuya Harjani

What a difference a quarter makes.

After months of jitters over a possible hard landing in China, market watchers are quickly turning optimistic on the outlook for the world’s second largest economy following a spate of reassuring data this week.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49473027

[winston]

DJ MARKET TALK: Curb Enthusiasm On China Stocks - Julius Bar

1450 [Dow Jones] Julius Bar says while it has become fashionable to be bullish on China, the fact that there is no hard landing should hardly come as a surprise - "the authorities never would have let one happen."

It says the Chinese data is better, but only ever-so-slightly, with the exception of M1 growth, which from a stock market perspective is the most directly impactful number.

The fact that it appears to have stopped its decline and is now rising is a positive.

"However, it would be wrong to infer that money supply will rise very quickly from here. The incoming leaders do not appear the types to embark on a large stimulus plan, and are worried about the wider social divide.

Meanwhile, does Premier Wen talking positively, or Huijin buying stocks, really boost GDP growth?"

The house says the economy is stable, but "we should curb our enthusiasm, because a big boom is not coming, nor will there be big government easing.

While the Chinese market looks like it has bottomed, it is probably not the beginning of a new bull market just yet."


Source: Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

[winston]

Chinese Stocks Looking Like a Bargain

With negative sentiment toward China reaching an extreme in recent months, patient investors have been rewarded with recent news of improving data from the Asian giant.

CLSA Sinology’s Andy Rothman reported that in September, retail sales growth rose 13.2 percent, which was the fastest pace of the year.

Real urban disposable income grew nearly 10 percent and real rural disposable income rose more than 12 percent during the first three quarters of the year. And, while export numbers are weak, China has “so far avoided the large-scale export-sector layoffs that led to 2009’s massive stimulus,” says Andy.

There was strength in commodity imports, too. Copper imports into China increased 11 percent compared to the previous month due to increased demand from power infrastructure, white goods restocking and auto production.

Iron ore rose a modest 4 percent compared to the previous month, which is encouraging. There was also a sharp rebound in oil imports most likely due to holiday restocking and lower international prices.

In fact, Pareto Securities found that Chinese implied oil demand came in at an all-time high of 9.8 million barrels per day in September.

http://www.usfunds.com/investor-resourc ... a-bargain/