Vested
China's Lenovo inches closer to a global tech title by Lee Chyen Yee
HONG KONG (Reuters) - Lenovo Group Ltd is on track to overtake Hewlett-Packard Co as the
world's biggest PC maker, by sales as soon as this year, making it the first Chinese company to grab the top spot globally in a technology sector.
The ThinkPad maker's rise highlights the advance of China's technology firms on the world stage in recent years thanks to a combination of ag
gressive pricing, overseas acquisitions and their taking advantage of a
fast-growing home market.Analysts, however, also warn that Lenovo's rapid gains in market share have
come at the expense of profit margins, while the company faces slowing growth in the market for personal computers and tough rivals in the tablet PC space.
"It's just a matter of time before Lenovo becomes No. 1 and it won't be surprising at all if it happens later this year," said Frederick Wong, executive director at Avant Capital Management (Hong Kong) Ltd, which owns shares in Lenovo.
He added, however, that
competition in the tablet sector and a weak PC market outlook could put pressure on Lenovo.
Lenovo, which became the world's No. 2 PC vendor in the third quarter of 2011, had a
14.9 percent global market share in the April-June quarter this year, a mere 0.6 percentage point away from HP's 15.5 percent, according to research firm IDC's latest data. Figures from industry tracker Gartner show an even narrower gap, with Lenovo just 0.2 percentage point from HP.
SWITCHING LANESLenovo's rise has been helped by its
purchase of Germany's Medion and a
joint venture with Japan's NEC Corp last year, as well as its acquisition of
IBM Corp's PC business in 2005.
Investors have rewarded Lenovo for its market share gains, sending its stock
up by around 16 percent this year and outpacing rivals HP, third-ranked Dell Inc and No. 4 Acer Inc, whose stocks have dropped over the same period.
Lenovo currently trades at a
multiple of 12.5 times forward earnings, the second-highest among the top-five PC makers and well above the 4.6 times multiple for HP, Thomson Reuters Starmine data showed.
But profit margins have suffered. Lenovo had
a 1.4 percent operating margin in the latest quarter, lower than HP's 7.4 percent and Dell's 6.2 percent, the data showed.
"HP, Dell and Acer have switched lanes in the PC race and passed the baton to Lenovo in terms of focusing on sales rather than margins," said Dickie Chang, an analyst at IDC in Hong Kong.
Another risk is slowing growth in the PC market as the global economy, including Lenovo's home turf and stronghold China, eases.
China accounts for about 42 percent of Lenovo's total revenue, with the bulk of that coming from PC sales.
Global PC shipment growth was largely flat in the second quarter, marking the
seventh straight quarter of low 0 to 5 percent growth for the industry.
"We remain positive on Lenovo's market share expansion, but the absolute growth is nevertheless being negatively impacted by a slower market," Jefferies said in a report. Jefferies has an "underperform" rating on Lenovo with a price target of HK$5.70.
Overall PC demand could pick up this year with the launch of
Windows 8, though the catch is that competition in the sector for tablet PCs -- not Lenovo's strongest area -- will heat up because the operating system is designed to run on laptops and tablets.
Mizuho analyst Charles Park forecasts
the PC market will grow by just 3 percent this year.
Lenovo's tablets, its
LePads, will also face competition from new products, including the next versions of
Amazon.com Inc's Kindle Fire and
Apple Inc's iPad, as well as
Google Inc's Nexus 7 and
Microsoft Corp's Surface.
Source: Reuters
http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/1 ... HM20120715
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"