Short-Selling, Puts & Inverse ETFs 02 (Feb 12 - Dec 25)

[winston]

TOL:-

If you are shorting, how much pain can you endure before you start covering ?

[winston]

TOL:-

Need to remind myself that there would be new money from a new month soon, so I better be careful if my hands are itchy and wants to buy some Puts or Inverse ETFs ...

[kennynah]

my pain is capped by the amount i am willing to lose..

liddat, no need stress out...just let the market take me out or pay me

TOL:-

If you are shorting, how much pain can you endure before you start covering ?

[winston]

TOL:-

The election results in Greece and France were within expectation.

Yet it supposedly caught the Asians by surprise today...

I took the opportunity to sell my S&P 500 Inverse ETF, as I think that the selling was a bit over-done. In addition, I dont want to be also against the PPT or Helicopter Ben, in an Election year.

I may kick myself later but so be it. No point being in a position that I do not have much confidence in.

[winston]

NYSE Short Interest Rises To 2012 Highs by Tyler Durden

On the surface, the fact that NYSE short interest was just reported today to have risen to 13.1 billion shares as of April 30 could be troubling for the bears, as this just happens to be the highest short interest number of 2012.

Indeed, an increase in short interest into a centrally-planned market is always disturbing, as it opens up stocks to the kinds of baseless short covering melt ups that simply have some HFT algo going on a stop hunt as their source, that we have seen in the past several weeks.

Naturally, it would be far easier to be short a market in which Ben Bernanke managed to eradicate all other bears, especially when considering that a year ago the Short Interest as of April 30 was virtually identical.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nyse-shor ... 2012-highs

[winston]

Put/Call Ratio.

The put/call ratio is at 1.34. It is down a bit from Thursday, but it is high. It has been high for several days straight. It is over a week now above 1.0, and it has been in the 1.2 - 1.4 range which is extraordinarily high.

Looking at Investor's Business Daily where they compile all of the put/call numbers together, it is all the way up to 1.4. It is quite high, and that shows that there are a lot of downside plays.

We do not know whether they are speculating to the downside or hedging for the downside by buying puts. You do know from general knowledge that it is a combination of those.

Point being that this is a very high number. When everyone starts to think the market is going lower as evidenced by the number of puts being bought either for hedging or outright speculation, that it usually a sign that you have something of a turn coming.

Again, this fits into our thesis that the indices are approaching a support level that will at least bounce them up some in a relief bounce.


Summary: We have volatility running higher, hitting almost a resistance point. We have the bulls and bears getting a bit more in line. They need to do more work.

We also have the put/call ratio showing that it was a very high level and plays into a rebound scenario. The sentiment indicators are getting a little extreme. When they get extreme, you look for turns in the opposite direction.


Source: Investment House

[winston]

SELL SIGNAL CONFIRMED by Lance Roberts

As of this morning the recent initial sell signalwas confirmed by a crossover in our longer term indicator as shown in the first chart.

Also, the expected oversold bounce is now officially engaged.

This is NOT a buying opportunity — this rally should be used to sell and reduce exposure to portfolio equity risk.

Our short term moving average has now turned down, and like last summer, will cross below our long term moving average by July.


http://pragcap.com/sell-signal-confirmed

[winston]

TOL:-

With the Dow springing 286 points, is it not a good time to short the market again, if you think that this rout can last till October ?

But didnt the jump of 286 points tells you that there's still a lot of money on the sidelines, that would be willing to buy, if things just go from worst to less worst ?

Or was it short-covering and not genuine buying, that was the cause of the 286 points rebound last night ?

Maybe this is still a Trading Market ....

[winston]

TOL:-

If you have been shorting the market going into 1H Window Dressing, then it's not a nice position to be in.

So do u now try to average down ( up ) or just throw in the towel and cover your positions now ?

[winston]

TOL:-

Three Central bankers ie. China, ECB and BoE, made their announcements at around the same time.

Looks like a coordinated move.

Maybe they discussed in the last G20 meeting.

Do you wanna short, when these guys are talking and coordinating things with each other ?