Vested thru a Bear Put Warrant
Feb 17, 2012
PING AN (02318) cut to Neutral with target maintained at $69.11 by BofA MLBank of America Merrill Lynch reported on PING AN (02318) stating its Neutral rating and target $69.11 with the following details:
Rally, but no changes in fundamentals... upside at 5.7%
We downgrade Ping An to Neutral as the stock has rallied by 27.7% outperforming the HSCEI by 14.3% and our fair value only implies 5.7% upside potential.
Ping An has rallied on the back of market’s expectations of improving liquidity. Nonetheless, A-share only increased by 7-8.0% to date, and there has been no change in Ping An’s investment return and premium growth momentum.
While we maintain our long term positive view on Ping An, we believe the stock may not outperform in the near term, given there is with no visible improvement in growth momentum and potential disappointment in FY11 VNB. With 5.7% upside potential to our target price, we downgrade Ping An to Neutral, PO maintained at HK$69.11.
Equity may boost momentum, but not high BETAPing An is currently trading at
1.57x P/EV and 8.02x new biz multiple, lower than two year historical average of 1.95x P/EV and 12.75x new biz multiple.
That said, given premium growth momentum in the near term may remain weak; the sector may not re-rate to its two year historical valuation.
Should equity market rally, Ping An may trade up in line with the market to its two year historical average of 1.95x P/EV and 12.75x new business multiple (implying values of HK$76.40 to HK$81.40 and 17-24% upside). Nonetheless, for BETA exposure, we would prefer New China Life and for defensive exposure, we prefer CPIC.
What to watch out for?- We believe that FY11 VNB (due mid March) for Ping An would come in at around 8.0%, which is lower than market expectations. Further 1Q12 FYP may be slower than peers. Hence no fundamental catalyst in the near term.
- On the positive end, the potential implementation of deferred tax pension program could boost momentum.
http://www.aastocks.com/EN/News/HK6/023 ... 74163.html
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