by winston » Fri Sep 28, 2012 10:12 am
not vested
The on-going takeover tussle for APB and F&N is nearing an end with today’s vote by F&N shareholders on the sale of APB.
Among the potential beneficiaries of the whole saga is Great Eastern, which sold its stakes in F&N and APB to Thai Bev/Kindest Place back in July, reaping total sales proceeds of $2.4bn.
Given the low historical cost of these legacy shares, GEH will realize a total pre-tax gain of ~S$2.2bn.
While most of the gains will accrue to GEH’s insurance funds, GEH itself will realise a net gain of $421m ($0.89/share) for its shareholders.
Taking into account new business embedded value created in 1H12 and the net gain from the sale of shares, we estimate this will lift GEH’s embedded value to well over S$8bn, or $17/share.
GEH’s stock price has appreciated by some 15% to around $15 since the saga first broke out, but remains under-rated given a Price/Embedded Value (P/EV) of 0.9x.
Arising from the gain from the sale of its F&N/APB shares, GEH could dish out a special dividend to shareholders as it remains well capitalised with capital adequacy ratios at over 200%, well in excess of the 120-130% regulatory requirements.
Another potential catalyst is a third privatisation attempt by OCBC to buy out the remaining 13% of minority shareholders. The previous two attempts, in 2004 and 2006, had lifted OCBC’s stake in the insurer from 49% to the current 87% at P/EV ratios of 1.2-1.5x.
On a P/EV multiple of 1.3x, GEH would be valued at $22/share. We recommend a Trading Buy.
Source: DMG
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"