Experts 'wrong' on swine flu by Mary Ann Benitez
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Experts were wrong in thinking that a pandemic caused by a previously dormant swine flu could not occur before the 2009 pandemic, an international flu expert admitted.
Until the swine flu (H1N1) outbreak two years ago, it was widely believed that the next pandemic would be a "novel subtype" of flu, said professor Malik Peiris, scientific director of HKU- Pasteur Research Centre and chair professor of the microbiology department.
"People thought that you cannot have a pandemic caused by an H1 or an H3 virus, but of course we were wrong in that," he told a two-day Voice of America disaster preparedness and influenza workshop for journalists in Hong Kong, Macau and the mainland, which ended yesterday.
Before 2009, it was widely believed a possible pandemic candidate was bird flu (H5N1) and global attention had increased fears.
But the pandemic was caused by H1N1, a highly mutated variant of the strain that caused the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic which killed at least 50 million people worldwide.
Peiris said although H1N1 in pigs did not show much mutation in the past 80 years, it acquired genes from human, avian and pig viruses to create the 2009 strain.
It turned out the severity of the pandemic "overall was not as bad as one might have expected."
Forty-five percent of Hong Kong children were infected in the first five months, but their symptoms were mild. Among older people where the disease was severe, the infection rate was low.
But Peiris warned the fallout from the management of the pandemic where countries stockpiled vaccines that went to waste, may have repercussions when the next outbreak strikes.
"The fallout has been quite damaging, and if we had a severe situation right now, very few governments might be willing to risk sticking their heads out to take pre-emptive action," Peiris said, adding H5N1 remains a concern.
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