Richard Russell 01 (May 08 - Dec 14)

[winston]

RICHARD RUSSELL: THIS IS A MODERN DAY DEPRESSION
by Cullen Roche

I wouldn’t know what one looks like so who am I to question someone who has lived through an actual depression (via Richard Russell):

“The signs are growing. I can see the signs in the number of vagrants in La Jolla and south in Pacific Beach. As I drive by I see little clusters of men and women (mostly men) huddled in doorways or sitting in the bushes beside the roads.

These are vagrants, always a sign of a severe recession. Men holding cardboard signs stand by the side of the road. The signs read, “Vet needs work.” or “Single mom needs food for her three children.”

Where do these people live? I wonder, where do they sleep? How do they have the energy to stand in the blaring sun all day with their cardboard signs?

But they are the signs of hard times. I’ve seen them before — in the 1930s. Today they are pushing shopping carts around the city, carts filled with junk — old blankets, tin cans, old toys, anything, it seems to fill up their carts.

These are the remnants of society, the “leftovers.” How do they survive, I keep wondering. And it scares me. These are people who have lost everything. And it is spreading.

On Wall Street they’re “taking it to the streets.” But these people are being shoved into the streets and the alleys and the bushes of every town in the US.

And I think, “But why La Jolla?” And the answer is that “Nobody ever froze to death in La Jolla.”

I’ve seen them weather the nights in NYC. Some sleep on top of the subway grills where warm air is pushed up from below. Some sleep on the steps of churches where the chances of being robbed are slim. Others sleep under slabs of cardboard, which are fashioned into little huts.

The signs of hard times are all about, but will it get harder? It all brings back bad memories of the 1930s. And to tell you the truth I’m scared.

And above it all stands Wall Street with its giant buildings and it heart of concrete. No wonder they hate the Street most when hard times arrive.”

Source: Dow Theory Letters

.http://pragcap.com/richard-russell-this ... depression

[winston]

“New normal will mean living on a survival scale,” says Richard Russell by Prieur du Plessis

Today’s quote du jour comes from 86-year-old Richard Russell, author of the Dow Theory Letters, who recently slipped and broke his hip.

He tells the story from his hospital bed: “I’m dead tired. I’m looking for any excuse to get some rest.

I take a shower, I slip on the soap suds below. My body comes slamming down to the floor. I can’t lift my left leg at all. Something is obviously broken.

My assistant calls for an ambulance. I’m delivered to Scripps Memorial Hospital in La Jolla.

I have broken my hip and that same day I have a complete hip replacement.

“For three days I have post-surgery psychosis. I don’t know where I am, I can’t read newspapers, I have trouble recognizing anyone, including my children. On the 4th day I am lucid and sane once more.

“Meanwhile, the market is almost as chaotic as I am. Nothing really makes sense. A thousand stories and opinions invade the media.

My own thinking is that the solution to this international mess, is going to take years and the result will be a lower standard of living in the U.S.

The idea of making money under our capitalistic system will change. The new focus will be how to avoid losing money.

The new normal will be living on a survival scale. It will be slow and costly.”

Source: Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters, November 1, 2011.

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2011 ... pe+Town%29

[winston]

Richard Russell: “Debt balloon moving closer to its fate – a pin” by Prieur du Plessis

Writing from rehab (after a hip replacement operation), 86-year-old Richard Russell of Dow Theory Letters fame said:

“The world’s inflated debt balloon is moving ever closer to its fate – a pin. Anybody younger than 80 years old is used to viewing the markets like a rubber band; stretch it one way, and it will always bounce back.

That’s the widespread thinking and acting. If a correction comes, don’t sweat it, the markets will come back and end up higher. That’s been the story and thinking since the year 1900.

“I’m saying that the economy and the markets have lost elasticity. We’re moving into the period where the markets will go down but they’ll no longer act like a rubber band, they won’t bounce back.

This period lies ahead one or two years, or possibly even three. For this reason, timing, or when to buy bargains, is antique thinking.

The big picture trumps all timing methods. The strategy now is to get out of debt and accumulate eternal wealth, which is gold and gem-quality diamonds.

“Federal Reserve money pumping has equated with a rise in stock market and numerous bubbles. When the Fed stops pumping the markets stall, as they are doing now.”

Source Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters, November 18, 2011.

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2011 ... pe+Town%29

[winston]

Have you ever seen an optimistic old guy in your life before ?

THE MESSENGER OF CHANGING TIMES… by Cullen Roche

Here are some deep thoughts from the great Richard Russell that will give the bears something to chew on for a while:

“I talked with my good friend, Joe Granville, over the weekend, and Joe is as bearish as I’ve ever seen or heard him, based on his OBV volume figures. This checks with my own work and studies.

While fundamentalists scour the news for indications of bullish news, the internals of the stock market continue to deteriorate. Even the action of the stock market is bearish as the market rallies on dull volume but declines on higher volume. F

urthermore, rising breadth is narrow on rallies while declining breadth is broad when the market heads down.

I don’t know what more I can do or say to convinced subscribers that we are seeing the resumption of the bear market. This means that we should be OUT of all stocks.

As for gold mining stocks, this is a personal choice. In due time, I expect gold to fully express itself with a huge upside blow-off. At that time I expect gold mining stocks to follow, but between now and then gold mining shares will probably be hit like every thing else by the fury of the bear market.

I should add that I am expecting this bear market to be far worse than most people expect or are prepared for. The fact is that I don’t believe that Americans expect any thing more than a temporary spate of difficult times, an annoying patch that should be over in a year or so. This is not what I am expecting or predicting.

Once the Dow breaks under 10,000, I believe that the analysts and the PUBLIC will become frightened and start to cut back on their buying. The newspapers will halt their bullish stance, and a great stillness will envelope that land.

( Winston: Does the newspapers really have a bullish stance ? What newspaper is this guy reading ? )

That stillness will be the result of shock as it dawns on Americans that they are seeing something far different than what they were expecting.

By the way, the Dow is now trading below its 200-day moving average, which stands at 11,938. The 50-day MA is bearishly below the 200-day MA (50-day is 11,811).

Spiritual — While in rehab and after my hip operation I had a lot of time to think. And I wondered why I was still alive. I had survived combat in World War II.

I had survived two heart attacks and a stroke. I had survived a mastoid infection and operation. I had survived 50 years of riding motorcycles with one dangerous crash. I had survived two divorces.

I have survived (and believe me it was survival) a severely autistic daughter who almost drove me mad. I have survived the years, since I will be 88 (the Chinese lucky number is 8).

So why, I ask myself, am I still here with my brain still functioning. My conclusion, arrived at after a lot of hard thinking, is that I’m supposed to be the messenger of changing times.

I have 8,034 subscribers. What percentage of these ladies and gentlemen take me seriously and follow my advice, and what percentage of this group think I am a self-opinionated loonie I don’t know.

In other words, some body wants me to hang around. I know this based on e-mails and kind letters I have received from many subscribers.

My advice over the years on gold and various bull and bear markets has resulted in changing some lives for the better. Which is a source of great satisfaction to me.

So that’s my story. I’m afraid it may sound prideful or mystical, but it is what I think, and when a man is 87 years old, he’s long past the need or the desire to lie. “

Messenger of changing times sounds more like the messenger of doom….Let’s hope Richard Russell is wrong. Unfortunately, it’s hard to ignore a man with more market cycles under his belt than just about anyone around….

Source: Dow Theory Letters

http://pragcap.com/the-messenger-of-changing-times

[winston]

“Please move into gold,” urges Richard Russell By Prieur du Plessis

Since its precipitous decline of more than $350 from August to December last year, gold bullion has regained almost $100 of its loss.

The yellow metal two days ago managed to climb above its 200-day moving average in what appears to be an upside break from a mini inverse head-and-shoulders pattern.

Source: StockCharts.com

I remain bullish on the fundamental outlook for gold for, among others, the following reasons:

• Stress in sovereign debt markets.
• A likely recession in Europe (and commensurate quantitative easing in whatever form).
• L0w real interest rates.
• Central bank buying.
• The least bullish positioning of investors in gold since 2008. (Also see yesterday’s post “Gold bounces off most oversold level since ’08 – buying time?“)

Having said this, I believe gold has more consolidation ahead before resuming its bull market. Pull-backs during this period should be used for adding to positions.

I often get asked what Richard Russell, 87-year old writer of the Dow Theory Letters, nowadays says about the outlook for gold.

In short, he sees a world “economic train wreck” ahead, and views gold as the “last man standing”. A few of his comments are below.

“For a decade I have been urging my subscribers to move into gold – either physical bullion or otherwise. Now I am at it again PLEASE MOVE INTO GOLD.

Those who think gold has lapsed into a bear market simply do not know what they are talking about. Gold has simply been correcting in an on-going bull market.

“This is a time when almost every central bank in the world is grinding out paper currency, grinding it out by the car-load. This is a time when people are searching for safety. People are frightened and confused. Where is the land of safety?

“There is only one safe asset on the planet: that safe asset is gold. Uninformed people believe gold is just a commodity. Wrong, gold is absolute money.

Gold alone is the world’s only completely safe currency. Gold has no counter-party against it, and no central bank has ever found a way to create gold.

“Almost every nation on earth has indulged in the same kind of fiscal madness. To cover the insane spending, nations have had to create an almost endless amount of fiat currency.

This avalanche of “money” has steadily reduced the buying power of almost every currency. The result is that it takes increasingly more paper currency to buy one ounce of real money – gold.

“Gold may now be ending its latest correction. If I am correct in this, gold is in a buying zone.”

The long-timer has spoken!

Source: Dow Theory Letters , January 11, 2012.



http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2012 ... pe+Town%29

[winston]

RICHARD RUSSELL: 2012′S MARKET MOVING EVENT WILL BE AN IRAN/ISRAEL WAR by Cullen Roche

Richard Russell senses something momentous building in the markets and he’s waiting for the right catalyst.

He thinks that catalyst will be an eventual nuclear stand-off between Iran and Israel.

http://pragcap.com/richard-russell-2012 ... israel-war

[winston]

Richard Russell: "In a depression, everybody loses. The winner is the guy who loses the least."

[winston]

The Bear Is Back, Say Chartists By RANDALL W. FORSYTH

Actually, it's just reawakening after having been lulled to sleep by central bankers.

If you laid all the economists in the world end to end, they still wouldn't reach a conclusion. By contrast, a large cohort of technical analysts is remarkably unanimous in their view of the stock market's direction -- down.

Richard Russell, the dean of the chartists who still is at it penning the Dow Theory Letters after more than half a century, declares the bear is back.

"I've been saying that a primary bear market started in 2007 and that this bear market was interrupted by a terrified Fed in 2009 -- interrupted, but not ended.


Source: Barron's

[iam802]

The Bear Is Back, Say Chartists By RANDALL W. FORSYTH
...


Richard Russell, the dean of the chartists who still is at it penning the Dow Theory Letters after more than half a century, declares the bear is back.

..

Like that a bit late leh...

[winston]

The big bear market has officially returned

IMPORTANT – Dow Theory – The D-J industrial Average recorded a high of 13,279.32 on May 1, 2012. This Dow high was not confirmed by the Transports. The two averages then turned down and broke below their April lows.

This action confirmed that a primary bear market is in progress – it was a textbook bear signal.

Russell comment – I consider the April-May action to be a continuation of a primary bear market that started on October 9, 2007 with the Dow at 14,164.53. We are now dealing with the latter part of the primary bear market that began in 2007.

Subscribers should now follow a course of utmost caution...

Source: Dow Theory Letters