AUD 01 (May 08 - Feb 12)

[winston]

Perhaps you can convert to RMB , a big country and population too

Yes, I thought about this one but I will give it a skip as I have no confidence in their numbers.

[Chinaman]

Boss W, what your view on AUD.

Now at 1.325, right time to enter?

Thinking of putting some $ in AUD FD giving 5.2% for 6 months...from ANZ bank.

[winston]

Dear Chinaman,

I'm not really a currency expert.

I bought AUD a long time ago as I wanted a Commodities Currency that would ride on the boom in the Emerging Markets.

At the same time, I wanted to reduce my exposure to Singapore. This is because Singapore's GDP is only a small fraction of the world's GDP, so it does not make sense for me to have the bulk of my assets in SGD.

I will continue to reduce my exposure to Singapore. Not sure whether I will continue to increase my exposure to AUD.

I'm waiting to see how deep the correction will be, before I decide on where to put my money next.

Take care,
Winston

[Chinaman]

Dear Chinaman,

I'm not really a currency expert.

I bought AUD a long time ago as I wanted a Commodities Currency that would ride on the boom in the Emerging Markets.

At the same time, I wanted to reduce my exposure to Singapore. This is because Singapore's GDP is only a small fraction of the world's GDP, so it does not make sense for me to have the bulk of my assets in SGD.

I will continue to reduce my exposure to Singapore. Not sure whether I will continue to increase my exposure to AUD.

I'm waiting to see how deep the correction will be, before I decide on where to put my money next.

Take care,
Winston

Thanks boss by your valuable feedback.

Point taken, me too shd reduce my exposure to S'pore.....dunno i parked 15% of my fund in HSI (HK market, most counters have their business in China, would this consider reduce exposure in S'pore market?)

[winston]

Point taken, me too shd reduce my exposure to S'pore.....dunno i parked 15% of my fund in HSI (HK market, most counters have their business in China, would this consider reduce exposure in S'pore market?)

Hi Chinaman,

I have to do it in stages.

First, reduce exposure to Singapore.

Second, reduce exposure to Asia.

I would consider AUD as a China story, so I will also have to reduce my exposure to AUD as well. I'm very uncomfortable having a big exposure to the China story.

Take care,
Winston

[eauyong]

From NAB.

AUSSIE: The rate has inched up further, up to $1.0854 vs $1.0835 at open, with yesterday's budget announcement doing nothing to change expectations of a rate hike from the RBA sooner rather than later.

Focus today is on the plethora of Chinese data with the main one being the CPI inflation. A fall towards 5% (from 5.4) would be regarded as positive for Aussie as it will ease expectations for further policy tightening in China and boost commodity prices, says NAB.

NAB notes that the Aussie has now risen above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (at 1.0830) of its sharp decline last week from $1.1012 to $1.0537. The next level of resistance is now at $1.0900.

[winston]

Vested

Aussie offers clues on commodities
Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Recent lackluster jobs data will likely deter the Reserve Bank of Australia from raising interest rates in the short term.

The Aussie dollar will likely weaken further versus the greenback. Watch out if it hits 1.0511 - a 50 percent retracement from its recent peak.

This would imply a slide in commodity prices as Australia is among the world's largest raw material and grain exporters.

Source: Dr. Check, The Standard HK

[winston]

On CNBC:-

Ray Barros mentioned that the support is around 1.04

[kennynah]

well ray barros is eventually wrong on his call on the 1.04 support

aud/usd is now <1...to be more precise, it's now 0.97

a major weakness on kangeroo money

[tonylim]

Owing to weak commodities prces ?