US to Experience Stagflation Worse Than 1970s: Jim Rogers
The U.S. economy is likely to experience a period of stagflation worse than the 1970s, which would cause
bond yields to spike, commodity bull Jim Rogers told CNBC on Friday in Singapore.
Rogers said governments were lying about the inflation problem and the
recent rally in Treasurys was a bubble.
Between 1974 and 1978 average inflation in the U.S. was at 8 percent, while unemployment hit a peak of 9 percent in May 1975. Currently, unemployment is at 9.1 percent while CPI is at 3.8 percent.
Rogers believes
inflation will get much worse this time because, he said, in the 1970s only the Fed was printing money, whereas now many global central banks have been easing monetary policy.
Rogers, who told CNBC in July that he was
shorting Treasurys, admitted that his view on U.S. bonds hadn't panned out. Since July, 30-year Treasurys have rallied and the yields have fallen from 4.36 percent to 3.15 percent. Bond prices and yields move inversely.
For now though Rogers is playing it safe and
avoiding bonds. Instead, he's betting on stagflation by being
long commodities and currencies (such as the Chinese yuan) and
shorting stocks."I wouldn't advise anybody to buy bonds,
I would advise you to sell bonds," he said. "If I were a bond portfolio manager, I would get another job."
"In the 70s you didn't make much money in stocks, you made fortunes owning commodities," Rogers added.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44900450
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