Sugar, Stevia etc.

[winston]

MARKET TALK: China Sugar Makers Likely Hurt; Reserve Sugar Auction

Source: Dow Jones Newswire


Not vested

[profittaker]

Rains cut Australian sugar output to 19-year low

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/rains-cut ... -2416.html

The spate of sugar downgrades has extended to Australia, the third-ranked exporter of the sweetener, where production now looks set for a 19-year low, and may not rebound strongly next season.

National Australia Bank, in a report forecasting continued strength in sugar prices, pegged Australia's output in 2010-11 at 4.1m tonnes, the lowest figure since 1991-92, and considerably below the hopes of some other observers.

The US Department of Agriculture, whose estimates set global benchmark, has pencilled in a 5.0m-tonne result.

The reduced hopes reflects the excessive rains which are also turning into a curse for grain farmers, and blamed on the La Nina weather pattern.
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China prices tumble

Turning to demand, NAB doubled to 2m tonnes its forecast for China's imports in 2010-11, reflecting the strong pace so far.

Nonetheless, sugar prices on China's Zhengzhou exchange fell by the maximum 5% allowed before recovering some ground to stand down 4.9% at 6,490 yuan a tonne, for the most-active, May contract, a fall attributed by dealers to profit taking.

New York raw sugar for March stood 0.3% lower at 28.62 cents a pound at 09:15 GMT, with London white sugar for December down 2.1% at $715.10 a tonne.

[winston]

Not vested

DJ China 4Q Sugar Prices To Keep Rising -Industry Report

BEIJING (Dow Jones)--China's sugar prices will likely continue to strengthen in the fourth quarter as a global shortage appears likely to choke off sugar shipments to China in the same period, an industry report from a trading firm affiliated with the Ministry of Commerce said Tuesday.

'Raw sugar imports are not likely to large in the fourth quarter, as prices of Thailand and Brazil sugar are already CNY5,500-CNY5,600/ton, higher than domestic sugar prices by more than CNY1,000/ton,' the Kunming Commodity Wholesale Market Center said in a market review published on the China Sugar Industry Trade Network.

It added that China's overall sugar output in 2011 was expected to rise slightly on year, as production in the key Guangxi Autonomous Region, which produces two-thirds of domestic supply, returns to the market.

However, it noted that output in other producing provinces, Yunnan and Guangdong, was estimated to fall by 100,000-200,000 tons, while beet sugar production in northern areas was likely to decrease by 350,000-400,000 tons.

China's refined sugar output in 2009 was 13.2 million tons.

Source: Chuin-Wei Yap, Dow Jones Newswires

[winston]

*DJ China Jan-Oct Refined Sugar Output 8.1 Mln Tons; Down 18% On Year


Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[winston]

Sugar output revised downwards by 10% due to Australian flood


Source: Rabobank

[winston]

China Sugar

Domestic sugar prices rose about 35% over the year to around CNY7,000/ton at the end of 2010, according to the Kunming Commodity Wholesale Market Center, a major sugar trade center in the southwestern province of Yunan.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[Aspellian]

Beverages companies and F&B companies that have sugar as core ingredients will be affected...

[winston]

Big Category 3 Cyclone going to whack Queensland Wednesday night.

Not vested in any Sugar company

[winston]

Australian Sugar Area May Lose 50% of Output Potential
By Phoebe Sedgman and Madelene Pearson

Sugarcane plantations in the north of Australia’s Queensland state may lose 50 percent of production potential after Tropical Cyclone Yasi scythed through an area accounting for a third of output, according to a growers’ group.

Sugar rallied to a 30-year high in New York on Feb. 2 amid concern Cyclone Yasi would cut output in Australia, before slumping 9.3 percent yesterday. The 2011 crop is likely to be “significantly reduced” by the storm, Queensland Sugar Ltd., the nation’s biggest exporter, said today.

“Some growers have lost 100 percent of their crop, a blow from which they may never recover,” Canegrowers said in the statement. “The losses will translate over many years, as sugarcane is a multiple-year crop.”

Global sugar production may exceed demand by a “small” amount in the coming 2011-2012 season, though the “fragile” balance will remain vulnerable to weather-related risks, C. Czarnikow Sugar Futures Ltd. said Jan. 31. The world market will remain in deficit in the current 2010-2011 season, it said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-0 ... rmath.html

[winston]

Uncertainty Over Supplies May Keep Sugar Price Volatile


The potential for world Sugar supplies to move back into a surplus this year could send Sugar futures prices sharply lower and put an end to this historic bull market run.


Fundamentals

Multiple years of world Sugar supply deficits have been behind Sugar’s price rise to over 30 cents per pound, but there is some hope that the market may return to a surplus in 2011.

High Sugar prices have been the catalyst for increased production estimates, with analysts expecting increased Sugar output from both India and Brazil this year. However, Mother Nature has not been kind to the Sugar growers in Australia, where devastating floods are expected to sharply lower production from the 3rd largest Sugar exporter.

The demand outlook remains mixed, as high world Sugar prices may curtail demand from some importing countries. Given the tight supplies the past few years, however, even normally price sensitive buyers may be forced to buy, even at current high prices, to guarantee supplies should this year’s output fail to meet estimates.

However, if Sugar production does live up to expectations, the days of 30 plus cent Sugar may be nothing but a memory later this year.


Technical Notes

Looking at the daily chart for July Sugar, we notice prices moving higher since the intermediate low at 20.22 was recorded back on November 17th. During this time, the 14-day RSI has failed to make a new higher reading, creating a long-term bearish divergence in this momentum indicator.

Mike Zarembski, Senior Commodity Analyst

http://www.dailymarkets.com/economy/201 ... -volatile/