AUD 01 (May 08 - Feb 12)

[winston]

I think a lot of Mrs Watanabe got burnt.

The carry trades are leveraged a few times as well.

Have they unwound all those leveraged carry trades ?

[Chinaman]

WOW !!!!! AUD$ and USD almost on par liao....i never expect this could happen...

I USD = 1.04 AUD$.

AUD, foreign currency FD is giving 5.4% p,a. by Maybank...........

[winston]

AUD at 0.9896.

If the floods cannot weaken the AUD then what would happen after the flood has receeded ?

[iam802]

Quite a number of pple eyeing this trade.

Third time I heard this today.

[kennynah]

i think AUD will not stay stronger than USD in the long term.... the flood is merely an excuse for the weakening

remember than it is primarily an export led economy.... with many of her customers being Asian countries...

i think AUD will stay below USD1 parity...maybe USD0.9 region...

[winston]

Vested

Aussie dollar

– The imposition of a levy on middle-to-higher income earners in order to help flood-damaged regions of the country rebuild has chipped away confidence that the central bank will again raise interest rates.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s taxing initiative is likely to cause a second-half drag on consumer spending and force the RBA to rethink its policy.

The Aussie weakened overnight, but has snapped a three-day decline following the words of Treasurer Wayne Swan. He predicted that labor markets would become further stretched and that consumer prices would rise in response to the flooding estimated today to be A$5.6 billion.

Swan said that in the first quarter he estimated consumer prices to be 0.25% higher and growth to be 0.50% lower than without the flooding.

The Aussie jumped to buy 99.87 U.S. cents in early morning New York trading and has pared gains lately to buy 99.61 cents.

http://www.dailymarkets.com/forex/2011/ ... l-corners/

[winston]

Ray Barros: Resistance at 103.27 and then pull back to 95

If it can penetrate 104, then it can go up some more ...

[winston]

Vested

DJ Australian Dollar May Be Nearing End Of Yearlong Climb By Stephen L. Bernard

-Australian dollar's nearly yearlong climb against dollar likely coming to close in 2011.

-Narrowing interest-rate differentials, slowdown in Chinese growth likely to cause pullback.

-Speculative investors are still long the Australian dollar, could be squeezed by turnaround.


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)-- The Australian dollar's marathon run higher against the U.S. dollar could be reaching the finish line, setting up the currency for a collapse.

The underlying fundamentals that have benefited the Australian dollar at the expense of its U.S. counterpart for nearly a year could be diminishing, and its recent fall against the euro could be a harbinger of a broader decline, analysts said.

Australia's high interest rates and its position as a key trading partner with China have made it a big winner versus the U.S. dollar for nearly a year. With China looking to curb inflation and the U.S. Federal Reserve eventually needing to tighten monetary policy, the Australian dollar could be set for a pullback later in 2011, analysts said.

The Australian dollar has slid 6.4% against the euro since it peaked on Jan. 10 just before ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet first hinted at a potential interest-rate increase in the euro zone.


-By Stephen L. Bernard, Dow Jones Newswires;

[eauyong]

Have the concerted JPY-intervention started? I am long on Kiwi & Aussie.

[iam802]

eauyong.

Nice move. Seems to be going your way.