Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (Apr 10 - Jul 12)

[lithium]

Happy birthday tomorrow Winston! HAHA......

[winston]

TOL as of October 10, 2010:-


101010

For those that are "mystically inclined", today is supposed to be a very special day. Various ceremonies are supposedly being held, at various "energy centres" throughout the world.

At the same time, others talked about the "Perfection" of the day, as "10" is supposedly a perfect number and we do have 3 of them today.

That got me thinking about the market, whom I believed also had three "10"s already and is now priced for "Perfection".

The first "10" came from Window Dressing. The second "10" came from the inflows of a new month. The third "10" came from the hope of QE2.

Now, it's hoping for a fourth "10", that Earnings would come in better than expectation

Will we be able to really get a fourth "10" ? Or does good things comes only in threes ?


The week in review:-

1) Oil - US$82.84 from US$81.73 last week

2) Gold - US$1347 from US$1318 last week

3) Shanghai Equities - 2739 from 2656 last week. Breaking Out ?

4) HK Equities - 22944 from 22358 last week. Sold Fook Woo and China High Speed Transmission. Bought Rexlot and NagaCorp. Reaching Resistance level ?

5) Spore Equities - 3153 from 3131 last week. When is the GE ? Sold Breadtalk

6) US Equities - 1165 from 1146 last week. Catalysts from Earnings Season ?

7) Japan Equities - 9589 from 9404 last week. How high can the Yen go ?

8) Emerging Markets - Still a lot of inflows.

9) Iran - Non-event now ?

10) USD - 77.48 from 78.31 last week. Support of 80 broken convincingly.

11) Properties - various programs to curb prices in HK, China and Singapore


I celebrated my birthday with my parents this year. It must have been decades ago since I last celebrated my birthday with them.

I have also not lived in the same city as my parents over the past few decades. I did not realized that they have grown that old already. When I was talking to my mum yesterday, I was shocked when she told me their age.

My impression was that they were 10 years younger than they actually are. If you are also not living in the same country as your parents, be aware that decades can pass by very quickly. This is especially so, when you are the "sandwich generation" and your focus has been on raising your kids and focusing on your career.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


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[kennynah]

I celebrated my birthday with my parents this year. It must have been decades ago since I last celebrated my birthday with them.

congratulations

[Aspellian]

I celebrated my birthday with my parents this year. It must have been decades ago since I last celebrated my birthday with them.

Winston,

Happy Belated Birthday!

[winston]

TOL as of October 17, 2010:-


QE2

By now, everyone has probably heard of QE2. By now, the smart money has already bought in anticipation of QE2.

So what's next ?
1) Would the markets continued to be safe until November 3 ?
2) Or would there be a lot of profit-taking before November 3 ?

And what about on November 3 ? What could be the scenarios ?
1) QE2 is not announced and the market is flat
2) QE2 is not announced and the market drops
3) QE2 is not announced and the market continues to explode upwards
4) QE2 is announced and the market is flat
5) QE2 is announced and the market drops
6) QE2 is announced and the market continues to explode upwards

As I think about the various probabilities for the various scenarios above, it's still probably safe to Scalp or Swing Trade for another week ...


The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$81.25 from US$82.84 last week. Hurricane season and Summer Driving is probably over. Are weak Oil prices, trying to tell us something ?

2. Gold - US$1365 from US$1347 last week. Where's the top ?

3. Shanghai Equities - 2971 from 2739 last week. On Fire

4. HK Equities - 23758 from 22944 last week. Traded China High Speed & Rexlot; Sold NagaCorp. Volume has been 2x normal. Hitting resistance ?

5. Spore Equities - 3204 from 3153 last week. When is the GE ? Sold Wilmar. Bought Capital Malls Asia

6. US Equities - 1176 from 1165 last week. Can the party continue ?

7. Japan Equities - 9500 from 9589 last week. Outflows from Japan. How high can the Yen go ? How much money has the Japanese government lost already ? How much more money can they lose before the Japanese public turn against them ?

8. Emerging Markets - The inflows are gushing in.

9. Iran - Non-event now ?

10. USD - 77.27 from 77.48 last week. Looks like a crowded traded.

11. Properties - various programs to curb prices in HK, China and Singapore


My spidey sense is tingling that there's danger ahead. However, the trend is always your friend. Therefore, I'll continue to Scalp and Swing Trade for another week or until the trend is broken. I smell something fishy but who am I to argue with the charts ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of October 24, 2010:-



Hitting Resistance ?


The Equities Markets seems to be hitting resistance. The buyers are no longer willing to chase while the Sellers could be taking some money off the table.

Is this the calm before the storm on Nov 3 ? Or would it gap upwards on Nov 3 ?

Market Direction seems to be back on the agenda so I will start including that in my weekly review from now onwards.



The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$81.95 from US$81.25 last week. What is Oil trying to tell us ?

2. Gold - US$1328 from US$1365 last week. Is the correction over ?

3. Shanghai Equities - 2975 from 2971 last week. Hitting Resistance ?

4. HK Equities - 23518 from 23758 last week. Traded Anhui Conch. Added to Rexlot. Bought China High Speed, China Shipping Development, Yangzhou Coal, CNBM, Asia Cassava, and Chaoda. Volume is heavy. Distribution ? Hitting Resistance ?

5. Spore Equities - 3174 from 3204 last week. When is the GE ? Added to Capital Malls Asia. Bought Fraser Commercial Trust and Trina Solar ADR.

6. US Equities - 1183 from 1176 last week. Hitting Resistance ?

7. Japan Equities - 9427 from 9500 last week. Outflows. How high can the Yen go ?

8. Emerging Markets - Inflows of $3.8 billion in the week ending Oct. 20. Year-to-date inflows has exceeded the record $44.2 billion for the whole of 2009.

9. Iran - Non-event now ?

10. USD - 77.62 from 77.27 last week. Do you know why you are shorting the USD ?

11. Properties - various programs to curb prices in HK, China and Singapore

12. Market Direction - Hitting resistance. But it does not mean that it will correct sharply. People who missed the move may want to buy on the dip. Short Sellers wont dare to short until after Nov 3. So it would probably be still safe to trade stocks that have strong catalysts. I will change my mind if I start seeing One-Day Reversals.


While I think that it's still safe to trade for another week, I'm starting to go through my portfolio to see where I should protect myself.

I want to be able to react very quickly should there be a sharp reversal.

Buying Put Warrants or Short ETFs may be the simplest way to protect the portfolio rather than to sell some of my Position trades.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[lithium]

My guess is I more surge, then only correction. Maybe after nov 3.

[winston]

My guess is I more surge, then only correction. Maybe after nov 3.

Ha Ha .... Great men think alike !

And fools seldom differ

[winston]

TOL as of October 31, 2010:-


Happy Halloween !

Wonder how many kids would be going around as "Helicopter Ben" tonight when they go trick or treating ? Every single rational person knows that QE2 is not necessary yet Helicopter Ben is probably going ahead with it.

And in the process, Heli Ben is probably going to create a lot of volatility in the market and may even end up destroying wealth, instread of trying to create some wealth.

Does he know something that you dont ? Does he has an ulterior motive ? The reasons does not matter. What matters is that there will be consequences from his action and being on the right side of those consequences, will be the objective for next week.


The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$81.45 from US$81.95 last week. What is Oil trying to tell us ?

2. Gold - US$ 1359 from US$1328 last week. Is the correction over ?

3. Shanghai Equities - 2979 from 2975 last week. Hitting Resistance ?

4. HK Equities - 23096 from 23518 last week. Sold & Bought back Rexlot. Added to China High Speed. Sold China Shipping Development, Yangzhou Coal, CNBM and Asia Cassava. Volume is heavy. Distribution ? The "risk-on" trade seems to be over.

5. Spore Equities - 3143 from 3174 last week. Sold Trina Solar ADR. Bought some DBXT S&P Short ETF. When is the GE ? I dont see a crash here especially when the GE is getting close. The local PPT will ensure that things would appear rosy.

6. US Equities - 1183 from 1176 last week. Support at 1168 then 1120 ? Resistance at 1193 then 1216 ?

7. Japan Equities - 9202 from 9427 last week. How high can the Yen go ? And how much has the Japanese government lost by intervening in the market ? Those money could have been put to better use by providing basic shelter to their homeless

8. Emerging Markets - Inflows continuing ?

9. Iran - Non-event now ?

10. USD - 77.17 from 77.62 last week. When will be the reversal ?

11. Properties - various programs to curb prices in HK, China and Singapore

12. Mid-Term elections - So what if the Republicans win ? Grid-Lock would not be such a bad thing especially when you see billions been thrown away on unproductive projects.

13. Market Direction - I'm no longer that confident that the market direction is upwards. Everybody seems to be focussing on this QE2 and the 'risk-on" trades seemed to be a bit crowded eg. Commodities, Emerging Markets etc. Even if they announce a "QE2 Heavy", I think market players may actually sell into the spike. Fundamentals have not really change over the past few months while Valuation have gone up significantly over the past few weeks.

Ok, so where do we go from here ? Is it still safe to buy on dips especially when the stock has a good catalyst and fundamentals ? Or is the downdraft going to be so strong that everything would be swept in it's path ?

I've reviewed my portfolio to ensure that it can go through a downdraft. I have also short-listed some "Bear Warrants" to buy if fear starts permeating the air. I have also bought some DBXT S&P Short ETF last week.

And what about upside risk ? What happens if the market spikes up instead ? Would I be nimble enough to get rid of my short positions ? Would I be nimble enough to sell my existing long positions into that spike ?

A Straddle is not a bad thing to have at this point in time. Unfortunately, I dont trade options so I will just have to make do with whatever investment vehicles that I can use.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of November 7, 2010:-


QE2 has sailed !


Now that QE2 is here, what should you be doing ? Should you be 100% invested in "risky assets" ? Should you be leveraging up on your risky trades ? Should you be selling your USD ?

Everyone seems to think that this party can now last another 8 months. Everybody seems to think that Cash is trash especially when it's the USD. Everybody seems to think that the best place to be, is in Emerging Markets and Commodities.

It does not matter that the reason for QE2 is that the US economy is weaker than expected. It does not matter that Europe and Japan is stagnating. It does not matter that inflation is very high in China and India. It does not matter that high Commodities prices would eventually affect the margins of the listed companies.


The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$87.40 from US$81.45 last week. Where's the next resistance ?

2. Gold - US$1393 from US$1359 last week. Nobody knows how to value gold anymore which means that this could go up a lot further. How about US$5,000 ?

3. Shanghai Equities - 3130 from 2979 last week. Where's the resistance ?

4. HK Equities - 24877 from 23096 last week. Sold Chaoda, Rexlot and 1/3 China High Speed. Volume is heavy. Where's the resistance ?

5. Spore Equities - 3240 from 3143 last week. When is the GE ?

6. US Equities - 1226 from 1183 last week. Gone past the resistance of 1216. Next Stop 1300 ?

7. Japan Equities - 9626 from 9202 last week. How high can the Yen go ?

8. Emerging Markets - Strong Inflows

9. Iran - Non-event now ?

10. USD - 76.76 from 77.17 last week. When will be the sharp reversal ?

11. Properties - various programs to curb prices in HK, China and Singapore

12. Market Direction - Everyone is not expecting a crash, especially with QE2 just being unleashed. So maybe buying on dips may be the right stategy for the next few weeks.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.