Brokers' Take
Fraser and Neave Limited
March 31 close: $4.80
DMG RESEARCH, March 31
INITIATE coverage with 'buy' at $5.30. We are initiating coverage of Fraser and Neave (F&N) with a 'buy' rating and target price of $5.30, pegged at parity to our sum-of-the-parts valuation, which implies 12 per cent upside potential from current levels.
Trading at a P/B of 1.1x, we believe F&N's present valuation appears undemanding vis-a-vis the 1.6x exhibited in CY2007, especially given its sizeable unbilled sales, which could potentially lower net gearing from current 0.48x and resilient earnings from consumer businesses.
Sterling unbilled sales, sizeable unsold landbank. By our estimates, F&N currently has unbilled sales of about $2.3 billion to be recognised through FY2012, which should support forward earnings and cushion any unexpected downturn.
While there were concerns over diminishing landbank, recent award of an executive condominium site has expanded F&N's portfolio to a sizeable 2.4 million square feet (sf) in unsold gross floor area (77 per cent mass), which should help it benefit from the property upcycle and avoid overpaying for land.
Despite historically high mass prices and continued government supervision, we expect demand here to remain strong due to tight completed supply, strong household balance sheets and improved economy.
Timely asset divestments serve as catalyst. Following the recent divestments of $634 million in commercial properties, we believe F&N could monetise additional assets in light of improved credit and economic conditions, which could provide a re-rating of the counter.
Some of these assets include seven office/retail properties (net lettable area: 1.9 million sf and value: $2.2 billion by our estimates), as well as its Glass Containers and Publishing & Printing businesses.
Indochina and economic recovery spur food and beverage growth. APB's $484 million purchase of Indonesia's Bintang beer and a leading New Caledonian brewer will provide immediate earnings accretion. Further growth impetus should herald from its about 50 per cent Ebit exposure to growing Indochina.
Expiry of Coca-Cola's franchise after FY2011 should bear minimal impact, due to potential earnings stream from five-year exclusive distribution of Red Bull, 100 per cent income recognition from marketing and distribution of some soft drinks in Singapore and introduction of 50 new categories and products. The new Rojana plant should support Dairies' venture into burgeoning Indochina.
BUY


