Although weak last year, Anwar: Ringgit Malaysia is the strongest performer in Asia this year
去年虽疲弱 安华:马币亚洲今年表现最强 | 新闻报报看 29/07/2024 | #Maxis5G
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hBw51Oa_gsM&t=186s
For the first time since 2007, the deposit level in Malaysia’s foreign currency account (FCA) saw a significant drop in the month of August.
The deposits declined by RM11 billion to RM246 billion in that month. Prior to August, deposits in the FCA, which are primarily the proceeds brought back into the system by Malaysian exporters but not converted into ringgit, always rose.
FCA deposits have dropped before, especially when the global economy slowed and the US dollar was weak.
Going forward, exporters are likely to convert more of their proceeds into ringgit considering the weakening US dollar.
Exporters tend to keep their proceeds in US dollars for ease of taking the money out with minimal Bank Negara approvals.
The central bank gave assurances of easy approval for the ringgit to be converted back into foreign currency should there be a need to do so.
Among those already feeling the impact are firms in the electrical and electronics sector, oil and gas companies and selected manufacturers.
Export sector, which grew 8.4% in the second quarter, compared with 5.2% in the first.
The strength of the ringgit in the near term will depend on the magnitude of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut and growth of the China economy.
The broader slowdown has put additional pressure on export-reliant currencies like the ringgit.
The demand for the US dollar will be higher when the degree of market uncertainties are high, but the Fed will cut interest rates.
Looking ahead to 2025, it expects the ringgit’s upward trajectory to continue with a high probability of breaking the RM4 psychological barrier and testing the next support level at RM3.90.
“Although some volatility is expected between RM4.30 and RM3.90, the ringgit could record a stronger average of RM4.10 in 2025, better than the expected RM4.55 this year"
“Over the medium term, we maintain a positive outlook on the ringgit, supported by narrowing yield differentials with the United States and a relatively resilient domestic economic growth outlook.
We believe there is further potential for appreciation in the long term, particularly if the Fed continues its monetary easing,” it said.
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