Risks Out There 07 (May 23 - Dec 26)

[behappyalways]

"Part of me regrets my lifelong research"; The godfather is worried that AI will threaten the survival of human beings

"部分的我 懊悔我畢生研究" 教父憂心AI將威脅人類生存 TVBS文茜的世界財經周報 20230507

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=N066wR2U9qs

[behappyalways]

Building value in 2019 $500m

Today $79m

There’s losses on books that are monumental and no one is talking about it….

https://twitter.com/ReelEstateDude/stat ... 8593488905

[behappyalways]

The banking crisis spread across oceans, and Citigroup warned that commercial real estate in Europe and the United States may experience a 40% plunge!

银行危机跨洋传雷，花旗警告欧美商业地产或将出现40%大暴跌！

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pnkS3kEvER0

[behappyalways]

JPMorgan bond chief Bob Michele sees worrying echoes of 2008 in market calm
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/09/recessi ... -2008.html

[winston]

What Could Knock Stocks Back Into a Bear Market

By Jacob Sonenshine

1. Liquidity - the combined size of the balance sheets of the Feds, ECB, BOJ plus funds made available via the PBOC liquidity operations—is down to below $22 trillion from almost $25 trillion early last year.

2. Banks are tightening their belts on lending - a shift that stands to eventually make less money available both for businesses and consumers.

3. Concern is even showing up in the credit market, a dynamic usually not found at the start of bull runs. The average yield on 10-year triple-B bonds is about 1.87 percentage points above the recent 3.7% yield on 10-year Treasury debt, compared with about 1.6 percentage points a few months ago.

Source: Barron's

https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks ... eid=yhoof2

[behappyalways]

The commercial real estate debt maturity wall we are set to start hitting in the back half of 2023 is going to matter for a lot of investors and holders of debt in the space.

Outside of life insurers, many regional banks have significant CRE exposure.

https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/stat ... 4490979333

[behappyalways]

This may not bode well for $SPX, according to this study by Morgan Stanley on the correlation between the S&P 500 and bank reserves.

Bank reserves are set to decline by a total of approximately $500B with the level of Treasury issuance we are seeing post-debt ceiling resolution

The Treasury may issue up to $700B in T-bills just weeks after any debt ceiling resolution, pulling liquidity out of the market.

While the lack of issuance was helpful to offset the impacts of QT, such a sizable issuance is like an amplifier for tightening financial conditions.

https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/stat ... 3808893952

[behappyalways]

'Godfather Of AI' Speaks Out: AI Capable Of Reason, May Seek Control
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/go ... ek-control

[behappyalways]

How do melt-ups end?

The amount of margin debt in the US market exceeded the free cash on these accounts by 4.69 times, setting a new record.

So, the June stock market growth was caused by Americans' aggressive buying of shares at the expense of debt.

https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/statu ... 9311972353

[behappyalways]

A good watch. US will have to start issuing long duration bonds in August due to 20% limit rule on short term debts. This might have impact on long term bond yield.

Three major creditors dump U.S. Treasuries
三大债主齐抛美国国债
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zB5VeL5GyPk