by winston » Wed Apr 05, 2023 10:37 am
China Strategy: Diverging trends among Chinese banks
Chinese banks as a sector posted a muted 4Q22 results, with the decline of pre-provisions operating profit (PPOP) accelerating to -9% year-on-year (YoY), with the diverging trend in PPOP growth between large state-owned banks and major joint-stock banks (JSBs) continuing.
The underlying fundamentals for major banks have softened faster-than-expected due to ongoing net interest margin (NIM) compression and a persistent weakness in fee income. Earnings growth for most large state-owned banks and major JSBs held up well owing to a reduction in provisions.
MSCI China Financials Index has risen 2.7% year-to-date (YTD), underperforming MSCI China Index by about 2.1 percentage points (ppt).
With a relatively high 2022 dividend yield of more than 8%, the sector offers a once-a-year tactical trading opportunity in the near-term.
Looking ahead, we expect Chinese banks to underperform the broader market post ex-dividend date (which will be in end-June/early-July) owing to deteriorating fundamentals as NIM compression persists.
Within Chinese banks, we prefer China Construction Bank (CCB, 939 HK, Fair value HKD7.0) as it posted the most balanced set of results in terms of earnings growth, NIM, capital levels and return on equity.
For income-oriented investors, Telcos and Energy could be considered as alternatives.
We prefer telcos as it also offer a potential upside riding on the “Digital China” policy priority.
Source: OCBC
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"