Semiconductor Industry 02 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)

[behappyalways]

Shortage
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qgXtlafr--g

[behappyalways]

SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics were among the biggest decliners after DeepSeek said it managed to reduce the amount of high-bandwidth memory needed for its latest model, stoking worries about the outlook for semiconductor demand: BBG
https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2098262360083329066


DeepSeek-V4.1 Flash is pushing KV cache compression to levels once thought impossible.

This is actually insane.
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/2098094324437184575

[behappyalways]

Huawei Pulls Its Nvidia-Killer Forward To Q1 - But There's A Catch
https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/huawei-pul ... eres-catch

[behappyalways]

"Supply Shortage Problem Has Disappeared": Acer CEO Says Memory Prices To Decline In 2027 As CXMT Starts Mass Production Of New Chip Platform
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/suppl ... -2027-cxmt

[winston]

<Research> Citi: Severe HBM Market Supply Shortage Seen in 2027-2028 as Demand Growth Far Exceeds Expectations

Citi released a research report stating that the recent HBM de-spec trend is not a sign of weakening demand, but rather a pragmatic approach to maximize accelerator shipments amid tight supply conditions.

Driven by scaled-out AI architectures, continual learning, and broader adoption of ASICs/GPUs, the bank expects HBM bit demand to surge 62% YoY to 75.2 billion Gb in 2027, and rise a further 69% YoY to 127 billion Gb in 2028, around double market estimates.

The bank noted that even as suppliers continue capacity expansion, supply will still significantly lag demand.

The supply-demand gap is expected to widen from negative 21% in 2027 to negative 36% in 2028.

Citi forecasts HBM supply to grow 64% YoY to 59.3 billion Gb in 2027, and increase 36% YoY to 80.9 billion Gb in 2028.

By supplier, Samsung Electronics, SK hynix Inc. (SKHY.US) and Micron Technology, Inc. (MU.US) are expected to increase HBM capacity by 50%, 67% and 52% YoY respectively in 2027, reaching monthly wafer capacities of 240,000, 270,000 and 140,000 wafers respectively.

Related News BofAS: AI Dominates Discussions at Asia-Pacific Investor Conference, Bullish on S Korea and Taiwan Memory and Semiconductor Sectors

The bank believes the projections reflect a severe supply shortage.

Except for isolated cases, prices for HBM4 12hi are expected to surge 100% to 150% YoY from around USD2 per Gb in 2026 to a range of USD4-5 per Gb in 2027.

HBM 8hi is expected to command a premium of around 20% to 30% over 12hi, creating substantial upside for memory suppliers in terms of average selling prices and profit margins.

Source: AASTOCKS Financial News

https://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

<Research> Daiwa Raises 4Q26 PC DRAM Contract Price Forecast to 13%-18% QoQ Growth, Maintains Positive View on Memory Sector

Daiwa released a research report stating that according to TrendForce data on September 30, PC DRAM contract prices in September rose 2% to 4% MoM.

Based on suppliers' catch-up price hikes for server DRAM, TrendForce raised its forecast for 4Q26 PC DRAM contract price growth from a QoQ increase of 3% to 8% to a QoQ increase of 13% to 18%.

The broker maintained a positive view on the memory sector and global memory manufacturers, believing that the upward revision in fourth-quarter contract prices will be positive for memory makers' earnings and investor sentiment.

The broker noted that PC DRAM contract prices remained relatively stable in September.

Average contract prices for 8GB DDR4 and 16GB DDR5 were USD148 (up 4% MoM) and USD247 (flat MoM), respectively.

The price discount of DDR5 relative to DDR4 widened to 10%.

Improved supply of certain PC central processing units supported shipments by some original equipment manufacturers in the third quarter, though this was mainly driven by channel inventory accumulation.

Current inventory has risen to more than two quarters of supply, compared with a normal level of half a quarter to one quarter, which is expected to limit future shipment growth.

Suppliers are seeking catch-up price increases to narrow the gap with server DRAM, and quotations are expected to rise gradually in October and November.

The broker added that consumer DRAM contract prices rose 2% to 7% MoM, mainly because major suppliers prioritized capacity allocation to DDR5 and HBM, leading to shrinking output of traditional DRAM.

In addition, demand for DDR4 related to QLC solid-state drives from North American cloud service providers has kept prices elevated in recent months.

MLC NAND contract prices edged up slightly and have entered a consolidation phase, as downstream buyers are unwilling to accept further price increases due to difficulties in passing on costs, while supply remains constrained.

TrendForce expects buyer resistance and continued supply shortages to offset each other, leading NAND prices to shift toward an extremely stable pattern.

Key downside risks include delays in data center construction and macroeconomic issues.

Source: AASTOCKS Financial News

https://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news ... -news/AAFN

[behappyalways]

Korean Media Exposes the Dark Secrets Behind CXMT's Rise! China's State-Backed Interference and C...
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wDG7gmX6t ... UMAYcqIYzv

[behappyalways]

Memory prices probably aren't dropping anytime soon.
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/2107823398747287885

[winston]

Memory stocks: Is the wall of worry justified?

by Ayushman Ojha

Concerns over future supply growth and competition may be overstated, leaving the sector attractively valued amid strong demand from artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Source: investing.com

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-ma ... ed-4955476