by winston » Thu Sep 19, 2013 8:01 pm
Centurion Corporation: BUY (Initiating Coverage); S$0.555; CENT SP
Ample room for upsides
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.77
• Only listed dormitory operator to benefit from higher rents due to severe shortage of purpose-built worker dormitories in Singapore.
• Aggressive expansion in Singapore and Malaysia from c.30k beds today to c.55k beds by 2015.
• Initiate with BUY, DCF fair value of S$0.77.
Singapore’s only listed workers dormitory operator. Centurion is a premier player in the foreign worker dormitory business, garnering c.11% market share with 18,000 beds in three dormitories in Singapore. The Group has also expanded into Malaysia since 2011, operating 11,000 beds as the first and only purpose-built dormitory operator in the country.
With its aggressive growth strategy, the Group has grown from operating 5,300 beds in 2011 to c.30,000 today, with another 25,000 beds in the pipeline by 2015.
Key beneficiary of demand/supply imbalance, enforcement to raise living standards of workers. As an operator of approved dormitories, Centurion is a beneficiary of increasing government rigour in ensuring that minimum housing standards for foreign workers are adopted.
However, the availability of such dormitories is limited – there are c.740k foreign workers vs. c.160k purpose-built dormitories today – and as a result, monthly bed rents have increased c.30% over the past three years.
This shortage should continue to support further rent increases over the next few years. Meanwhile, supply of dormitory land remains scarce due to the relative difficulty in identifying socially and commercially viable land plots for development.
40% core earnings CAGR. Key growth drivers are continued rent increases (we assumed 5% p.a.), higher occupancy and 50% expansion in beds in Singapore from 2013 to 2015 and 120% in Malaysia by 2015. Beyond worker’s dormitory business, Centurion has also expanded its mandate to include student accommodation in the region.
BUY, TP S$0.77. Including the potential dilution from a proposed 1-for-10 bonus issue of warrants, we derived a DCF-based TP of S$0.77, assuming 6.97% WACC. Further acquisitions and higher than expected rent rates are potential upsides, while there are risks of higher land/construction costs resulting from competition and regulatory changes.
Source: DBS
Source: DBS
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