Posted: Thu Feb 09, 2017 7:39 pmPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:22 pmIs a retest in 2019 possible? Yes, but if so, we would view that as a buying opportunity.”
Lee is bullish on stocks in 2019 and expects the S&P 500 to end 2019 at 2,850. That represents about 10.5% upside from the index’s current level of 2,580. From 2,351, Lee’s target equates to a 21% surge.
1. Lee is bullish on FANG stocks.
2. Demographics may also boost the stock market. Millennials drive over 50% of GDP growth.
3. Lee is also overweight on stocks that benefit from automation and artificial intelligence.
The two major downside market risks Lee sees include a possible central bank policy error and the inversion of the yield curve.
Posted: Thu May 20, 2021 9:32 pmPosted: Tue Jul 20, 2021 11:57 amHe acknowledges, however, that the market is being buffeted by uncertainty and that this month may be one where investors should avoid taking any additional big wagers.
“I just think that Julys, at least in my 30 years of doing research, have never been great months for people to really make big profits,” he said.
“For the next couple weeks, I think it’s tough,” he said.
‘I think, again, the message that I would have [for investors] is [that] it’s not a month to be a hero.’
Lee warned investors back in late June that when markets are strong in the first half of a year, July tends to be choppy.
That said, Lee is still bullish on equities in the longer term and maintains his 4,600 year-end target for the S&P 500. “I think that stocks are still going to have a double-digit second half,” he told CNBC Monday.
He said that investors “shouldn’t extrapolate that we’ve lost the war against COVID.”
Posted: Tue Sep 07, 2021 8:53 amLee’s top market picks still involve trades most tied to the economic recovery.
He particularly likes energy, and materials.
He also sees opportunities in FAANG stocks.
“My guess is that quite a number of investors thought we’d have a 10% correction in August,” Lee said.
“So, money was taken off the table. Usually when people re-risk they start buying cyclical and epicenter ideas.”
Posted: Mon May 08, 2023 11:36 amPosted: Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:47 amLee pointed to signs of falling inflation and improving market breadth that support his bull case.
He has made the case for months that a new bull market is emerging in stocks.
1. The May Consumer Price Index Report: June 13th
2. The AI-driven rally for tech stocks
3. Increasing market breadth
Posted: Wed Jun 14, 2023 6:25 pmLee pointed to falling commodity prices, healing supply chains, and the strong labor market as evidence that the economy—and corporate America—may be in better health than many imagine.
Lee pointed to falling commodity prices, healing supply chains and the strong labor market, as evidence that the economy—and corporate America—may be in better health than many imagine.
Posted: Wed Jul 26, 2023 1:06 pmProfessional investors’ overly pessimistic disposition has left a lot of cash on the sidelines, according to Lee, which should be deployed into stocks when they drop, putting a floor on prices.
Tom Lee decided to increase his price target for the S&P 500 to 4,825 earlier this month, implying a potential 5.5% jump in the index by year-end.
At a 3.7% 10-year [Treasury yield], the 30-year mortgage [rate] should be 5% or so. So when that drops, that’s huge stimulus.
Companies have battened down the hatches, they’re not going to get tripped up,” Lee said, arguing that a U.S. recession or stock market crash is unlikely over the next two years.
Posted: Thu Aug 03, 2023 7:18 pmInvestors should "be wary" of a potential stock market sell-off, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee.
He highlighted in a Wednesday note why stocks could sell off in the coming weeks.
"We believe investors just simply need to be vigilant," Lee said.
Lee noted that Friday's upcoming jobs report could be stronger than expected, and if so that could lead investors to question whether or not the Federal Reserve really is done with hiking interest rates.
Also not helping the market over the next few weeks is seasonal data, which shows that the month of August and September are weaker than most other months in terms of stock market returns.
Lee highlighted DeMark Analytics' "13" sell signal just flashed.
The index measures the New York Stock Exchange's percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average and is a gauge of momentum on the stock market.