SGD

[iam802]

Is USD/SGD ready to head back to 1.30?

Seems like a ‘W’ is forming and the Tenkan sen is about to cross the Kijun sen for the upside.

[iam802]

Singapore’s MAS to Hold Currency-Gain Pace, Survey Shows

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/201 ... shows.html

The Monetary Authority of Singapore will maintain the current pace of appreciation of the city state’s currency on speculation consumer-price gains will limit the authority’s scope to ease policy, analysts said.

Officials will hold the current rate of the local dollar’s advance and refrain from altering its trading band, according to 20 of 21 financial companies surveyed by Bloomberg News. One said there is a 50 percent chance the central bank will either keep its stance unchanged or increase the band’s slope to levels prior to its last review in October. The government will announce the currency decision on April 13, the same day it releases preliminary gross domestic product data.

Core inflation is “proving to be more persistent,” Khoon Goh, a Singapore-based senior currency strategist at ANZ National Bank, wrote in an e-mailed response to questions. “We see the MAS maintaining the current appreciation slope to keep inflation within target.”

The MAS is forecast to join central banks from Australia to Thailand, which refrained from raising benchmark rates this month and last as they weigh inflation risks. Economists predict policy makers in Indonesia and South Korea will also hold borrowing costs when they gather this week.

Singapore’s central bank uses the exchange rate rather than borrowing costs to conduct monetary policy, adjusting the pace of appreciation or depreciation against an undisclosed trade- weighted band of currencies by changing the slope, width and center of the band. A flatter slope allows slower appreciation or depreciation over time.

Core Inflation

The MAS announced a reduction to the slope of its policy band on Oct. 14, citing an “expected moderation in core inflation.” It tightened monetary conditions at each of its previous three gatherings.

Costs in the economy have been more persistent, and the MAS is “very concerned” about prices, Minister for Trade and Industry Lim Hng Kiang said yesterday. The authority doesn’t have a formal inflation target, Lim said, speaking in parliament.

The city state’s consumer price index rose 4.6 percent in February from a year earlier, after climbing 4.8 percent in January, the Department of Statistics said March 23.

The core inflation rate, which excludes accommodation and private transportation costs, was 3 percent. The measure may be about 3 percent in the next few months, the central bank and trade ministry said in a monthly statement on price trends released on the same day.

Singapore’s dollar traded at S$1.2612 against its U.S. counterpart as of 6:53 a.m. local time, up from this year’s low of S$1.3006. The median forecast shows the currency may advance to S$1.25 by June 30 and strengthen to S$1.23 by year-end.

It has appreciated 2.8 percent since Dec. 31, the fourth-biggest gain against the U.S. dollar among the most-traded currencies. In 2011, the Singapore dollar gained 1 percent versus the greenback and advanced against 10 of 16 major peers.

The economy probably rebounded from a contraction, growing 7 percent in the first quarter from the previous three months, according to the median of 11 estimates in a separate Bloomberg survey.


....
...

[eauyong]

MNI DOLLAR-SING TECHS: Closely watching 21 day moving average

RES 4: Sgd1.2970 - Monthly high June 1
RES 3: Sgd1.2888 - High June 8
RES 2: Sgd1.2850 - 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 1: Sgd1.2726 - 21 day moving average
LATEST PRICE: 1.2685
SUP 1: Sgd1.2653 - Low July 10
SUP 2: Sgd1.2607 - Low July 5
SUP 3: Sgd1.2546 - Low May 15
SUP 4: Sgd1.2447 - Low May 8

COMMENTARY: USD/SGD needs to close back above the 21 day moving average that is currently thwarting the recovery from the double daily
bottom in the Sgd1.2605-10 region.

Above the 21 day MA would see initial focus shift back to the upper end of the favoured Sgd1.2610-1.2890 range for this week and then June monthly highs above.

[kennynah]

too strong liao

[winston]

Deutsche Bank expresses bearish bias on Singapore dollar

See what positions you should be taking.

Deutsche Bank also dismissed the idea of drawing confidence from Monetary Authority of Singapore's (MAS) decision to keep policy unchanged.

"Conditions for easing nearly existed, with growth disappointing, inflation forecasts lowered, and imported inflation negative," said the bank.

It advised FX traders that the risk-reward is firmly in favor of maintaining long USD/SGD and short S$NEER positions.

With S$NEER trading at the top end of the band, the risk-reward is asymmetric. Downside in USD/SGD will be limited by firm intervention at the bands in the near-term, a move higher in the USD complex of Singapore's trade partners in the medium-term, and potentially by the risk of easing down the line," Deutsche Bank said.


http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/deutsc ... 00218.html

[winston]

Why the Singapore Dollar is Starring Into the Abyss

By Brad Thomas


http://www.investing.com/analysis/why-t ... yss-227763

[winston]

Oil price crash brings out Singapore dollar bears

The Singapore dollar dropped more than 7 percent against the U.S. dollar over the past six months as the Federal Reserve brought its asset purchase program to an end and appears on course for further weakness given lower oil prices

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/asian- ... ef_article

[winston]

TOL:-

If a major crisis hits Singapore, would Singapore be able to recover from it, since it's such a small place ?

If not, shouldn't you be diversifying some of your SGD into other currencies ?

And what currencies would you be choosing ? USD ? CNY ? CHF ? What else ?

If you are asking what crisis can really hit Singapore, then you don't really understand the question or you have lost your memory.

If you can know in advance what crisis will hit Singapore, then it's no longer a crisis.

Some examples in the past ie. Forward Contracts of Pan Electric, 1987 October Crash, Asian Financial Crisis, SARS and Financial Tsunami. Have you forgotten these crisis or have you lost your memory ?

Low probability does not mean no probability. ( from "Low Crime Does Not Mean No Crime" )

[behappyalways]

Jittery local depositors flee to foreign currencies as SGD steadily deteriorates
http://sbr.com.sg/economy/news/jittery- ... teriorates

[behappyalways]

Singapore Dollar Slumps Most Since 2010 on Monetary Policy Shift
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-2 ... -fall.html