MYR (Malaysian Ringgit)

[winston]

USDMYR Heads Higher Amid
Weaker Global Sentiment
MYR Sees Weakening Due to External Factors

The USDMYR has been climbing quite substantially recently, breaching several key resistance levels as the global macro situation has turned unfavourable.

Weakness in the prices of key Malaysian (such as crude palm oil and crude oil), disappointment on China’s recovery and broad USD strength/rising UST 10 y yields (amid more hawkish Fed speak) has weighed heavily on the MYR.

In the near term, we do not rule out the possibility that the USDMYR could still be move further upwards given that global sentiment could be subdued for a while still.

We see key resistance levels for the pair at 4.6244 and 4.7495.

Support is at 4.5481, 4.5000 and 4.4729.

Amid the global uncertainty, our FX-tracking model finds that the USDMYR in the short run may not hit the high of 2022 and top out at 4.69.

Source: Maybank

https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/320481.pdf

[behappyalways]

Malaysian ringgit fell into Asia's worst currency, is it actually related to China?

马币不争气跌成亚洲最差货币 居然与中国有关？ | 八点最热报 26/05/2023

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Whh-PtgrYfQ&t=109s

[behappyalways]

Will rate hikes help the ringgit? Nor Shamsiah: Ringgit's depreciation is due to the impact of the US dollar and China's economy

升息对令吉没帮助？ 诺珊霞：令吉贬因受美元和中国经济影响 | 八点最热报 28/05/2023

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kJyr_QwG070

[behappyalways]

S$1 to RM3.44: S'pore dollar blasts to new record high against M'sia ringgit
https://mothership.sg/2023/06/sing-doll ... -high-344/

[behappyalways]

If the ringgit is pegged to the US dollar, Deputy Finance Minister: OPR must rise to 5.25%

若令吉与美元挂钩 副财长：OPR须升至5.25% | 八点最热报 20/06/2023

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ECpZHiQkMq4

[behappyalways]

The ringgit stopped falling and rebounded, can you pay attention to the three key time points?

马币止跌回扬 可留意三大关键时间点? | 八点最热报 04/07/2023

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6j7jGmjVvzM&t=4s

[winston]

Rapid descent in ringgit puts Malaysia’s currency stance to test

By David Finnerty

Domestic political instability, a vanishing yield premium over Treasuries and China’s slowing growth have all contributed to the ringgit’s decline.

“The 2022 highs at around 4.7495 would be a natural point to watch.”

“Currency intervention could slow MYR weakness, but the wide US-Malaysia interest rate differential could continue to weigh on the MYR”.

Stronger pushback by Chinese policymakers against the yuan’s depreciation should help the ringgit given the high correlation between the two currencies.

Source: Bloomberg

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/674150

[winston]

The ringgit: What we need to understand

Exchange rate pressures stem from both global and domestic factors and relative interest rate differentials are one of the dominant factors.

Other fundamental factors influencing the behaviour of exchange rates are relative price levels (inflation), balance of payments (in a simpler term, exports more than imports), government’s budget balance and debt, as well as other non-economic risks (political condition and governance).

On a regional comparison basis, our OPR is the second lowest in the region after Thailand.

Source: The Star

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... understand

[winston]

Flagging ringgit bodes ill for Malaysia’s Anwar

Local currency tumbles amid rising investor perceptions ‘unity’ government hasn’t kept its word on reforming the economy

By NILE BOWIE

The local stock market saw foreign outflows of 4.19 billion ringgit (US$920 million) in the first half of 2023.

Malaysia’s economy grew above market expectations at 5.6% in the first quarter of the year.

Malaysia has a relatively high foreign currency-denominated debt exposure with data showing only 33% of total debt being ringgit-denominated as of 2022.

National debt that has ballooned to 1.5 trillion ringgit ($329 billion), exceeding 80% of gross domestic product (GDP).

Household debt is also among the highest in the region as a result of heavy borrowing by Malaysian citizens, accounting for 81% of the country’s nominal GDP in December 2022.

The Malaysian ringgit is down approximately 10.61% against the US dollar from early January, when it traded at 4.24 before falling to a low of 4.69 in late June. As a historical benchmark, the ringgit weakened to 4.88 during the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis and traded at 4.74 ahead of last November’s general election before recovering by year-end.

Source: Asia Times

https://asiatimes.com/2023/07/flagging- ... ias-anwar/

[behappyalways]

Will ringgit depreciate as Fed raises interest rates?
Short-term factors may have an impact

美联储升息导致令吉贬？ 张国林：短期因素或带来影响 | 八点最热报 10/10/2023

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OHdF9EDyUi4