InvestIdeas

Rising rates, among other indicators, have often preceded the end of economic expansions and equity bull markets.

Among other telltale signs: a flattening yield curve, record corporate and household debt, an overheated jobs market and increased mergers and acquisition (M&A) activity.

So far this year, the value of global M&As has already reached $2 trillion, a new all-time high. The last two periods when M&As reached similar levels were in 2007 ($1.8 trillion) and in 2000 ($1.5 trillion), according to Reuters. Careful readers will note that those two years came immediately before the financial crisis and tech bubble.

Now, the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, has reportedly turned bearish on “almost all financial assets,” according to one of its most recent notes to investors.

1. The Transports Look Weak
2. About Those Banks
3. Housing Stocks Not Doing Well

Among the recent milestones: Copper dipping below $6,000. West Texas Intermediate crude testing $68. Gold crashing through $1,220.

“Metals prices are timely, highly correlated with world economic activity and perform well at predicting short-term movements in GDP”.

“Consumption moves very closely with GDP.”

A 10 percent move in the LMEX Index of six base metals corresponded to a 7 percent move in the Stoxx Europe 600 Basic Resources sub-index in the past year -- that’s stronger than during the preceding decade.

Copper, often used as bellwether for the global economy due to its wide-ranging industrial applications, fell 18 percent.

The same picture is on display in emerging-market currencies, where 21 out of 24 tracked by Bloomberg declined. The biggest losers included nations such as South Africa, a producer of base and precious metals and coal; Brazil, which exports iron ore, agricultural and petroleum products; Chile, a major copper producer; and Russia, which relies on natural gas, metals and other commodity exports.

US$500m NY Real Estate Project
- $1,000 per square foot to renovate it. But it often costs less than $100 per square foot– ten times less– to BUILD a place from scratch.

The bank expects this to be a five-year project. This means that, when the building is complete in five years, they’re probably going to be selling into the bottom of the market.

Signs of the top are everywhere:-
1. Perks for Plumbers: Hawaiian Vacations, Craft Beer and ‘a lot of Zen’
2. Oil workers in the Permian Basin are getting 100% pay raises.
3. The percentage of the population getting elective, cosmetic surgery is at an all-time high. 4.
4. People are buying pleasure boats and yachts at a record clip.

1. THE YIELD CURVE
2. SHORT-TERM BILLS
3. UNEMPLOYMENT
4. OUTPUT GAP
5. STOCK MARKETS
6. BOOM-BUST BAROMETER
7. HOUSING MARKET
8. EARNINGS GROWTH
9. SOUTH KOREA EXPORTS
10. HIGH-YIELD SPREADS
11. INVESTMENT-GRADE YIELDS
12. MISERY INDEX

What is the “Buffett Indicator”? You just take the total market value of all stocks and divide it by the gross domestic product. When that ratio is more than 100 percent, stocks are generally considered to be overvalued.

The Buffett indicator peaked at about 145% right before the dot-com bubble burst and reached nearly 110% before the financial crisis.

Right now, we are at almost 149 percent, which is the highest level ever recorded…