Market Sentiment 05 (Nov 17 - Dec 25)

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 9.14; -0.79
VXN: 13.90; -0.80
VXO: 8.09; -0.69

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.94; +0.07

Bulls and Bears: Bulls continue rising for the fourth week over 60.0 and bears fall to lows not seen since 2014 and 2015.

60+ has been a governor on market rises, but it is not an immediate cause and effect. In other words, you hit the levels, but the market can continue to rally.

Bulls: 63.5 versus 62.3
Bears: 14.4 versus 15.1

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 11.29; +0.79
VXN: 15.03; -0.01
VXO: 9.80; +0.54

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.18; +0.08

Bulls and Bears: Bulls put in the fifth consecutive week above 60.0, rising to a cycle high at 64.4. Definitely enough bullishness to work against a continued upside move.

Bulls: 64.4 versus 63.5
Bears: 14.4 versus 14.4

Source: Investment House

[winston]

Why investors shouldn’t rely on sentiment indicators for market-timing

By Anora M. Gaudiano

‘Sentiment is a tricky thing’, says Bespoke’s macrostrategist Pearkes

Several measures of Wall Street sentiment peaked this year and rolled over without a corresponding pullback in the stock market, underlining the faultiness of metrics used for timing the market that have so far consistently betrayed Wall Street investors.

Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-i ... yptr=yahoo

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 11.43; -0.33
VXN: 13.79; -0.52
VXO: 9.75; +0.27

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.80; -0.15

Bulls and Bears: Bulls dipped a bit but still over 60.0 for now six weeks. That is certainly putting in the time for a top. Bears rose, indicating it was not just a dip in bulls but bears are a bit more concerned.

Bulls: 63.5 versus 64.4
Bears: 15.4 versus 14.4

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 11.43; +0.15
VXN: 16.57; +0.64
VXO: 10.86; +0.50

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.78; -0.07

Bulls and Bears: Bulls dipped two weeks back then recovered this past week though still off the recent peaks. It will be interesting to see how the DJ30 versus NASDAQ/SOX will play out this past week.

Bears dipped but still hold a more elevated level, though still way off the highs. Still very high
bullish reading.

Bulls: 62.3 versus 61.5
Bears: 15.1 versus 15.4

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 9.58; -0.58
VXN: 14.42; -1.44
VXO: 8.54; -1.02

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.94; +0.10

Bulls and Bears: Bulls roared back from the dip a dip 3 weeks back, but never fell below 60. That is a high level of bulls, suggesting that a lot of money is already in the market.

For now, however, the market still is moving higher but it is noteworthy SOX is under pressure and the big name techs, while they did bounce the past week, still have to show they can
recover the prior highs without slipping into a basing/consolidation process.

Why? Because you want the yearend rally to continue and to play it.

Bulls: 64.2 versus 62.3
Bears: 15.1 versus 15.1

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 9.42; -1.07
VXN: 11.88; -0.51
VXO: 7.88; -0.81

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.97; +0.17

Bulls and Bears: Pretty large drop though still easily over 60 for the bulls. That is still in the overly optimistic range and of course the surge Friday will bring them around again to the upside. This is a warning indication, but not a great timing device.

Bulls: 61.9 versus 64.2
Bears: 15.2 versus 15.1

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 9.90; +0.28
VXN: 12.54; -0.11
VXO: 8.45; +0.12

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.95; +0.11

Bulls and Bears: Pretty large drop though still easily over 60 for the bulls. That is still in the overly optimistic range and of course the surge Friday will bring them around again to the upside. This is a warning indication, but not a great timing device.

Bulls: 61.9 versus 64.2
Bears: 15.2 versus 15.1

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 11.04; +0.86
VXN: 15.68; +1.06
VXO: 9.46; +1.03

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.11; -0.02

Bulls and Bears: Pretty large drop though still easily over 60 for the bulls. That is still in the overly optimistic range and of course the surge Friday will bring them around again to the upside. This is a warning indication, but not a great timing device.

Bulls: 61.9 versus 64.2
Bears: 15.2 versus 15.1

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

If you have not done so, please read the Thursday report discussion of sentiment in the Market Summary.

VIX: 9.22; 0.00
VXN: 13.48; -0.49
VXO: 8.56; +0.24

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.92; +0.10

Bulls and Bears: Trading back and forth in a narrow range at the top what is historically an extreme level for bulls.

Bulls: 61.9 versus 64.1
Bears: 15.2 versus 15.1

Source: Investment House