InvestIdeas

1. Liquidity - the combined size of the balance sheets of the Feds, ECB, BOJ plus funds made available via the PBOC liquidity operations—is down to below $22 trillion from almost $25 trillion early last year.

2. Banks are tightening their belts on lending - a shift that stands to eventually make less money available both for businesses and consumers.

3. Concern is even showing up in the credit market, a dynamic usually not found at the start of bull runs. The average yield on 10-year triple-B bonds is about 1.87 percentage points above the recent 3.7% yield on 10-year Treasury debt, compared with about 1.6 percentage points a few months ago.

The amount of margin debt in the US market exceeded the free cash on these accounts by 4.69 times, setting a new record.

So, the June stock market growth was caused by Americans' aggressive buying of shares at the expense of debt.