InvestIdeas

If You Can Do These 3 Things Consistently, You’ll Make A Fortune

by Whitney Tilson

After 20-plus years on Wall Street, I’ve realized that all of my successful investments – both long and short – start with three key steps…
1. Performing good, fundamental analysis
2. Developing an edge through “scuttlebutt” research
3. Taking advantage of extreme investor sentiment

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2019/04/19/ ... a-fortune/

5 Investment Themes for the Summer

1. Value over Growth
2. Large Cap as a Category
3. U.S. over Foreign
4. Municipals and Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
5. Don't Fight Volatility

Source: Zack's

US: Strategies for an Uncertain Market

1. I'm watching the insider buying for clues as to the bottom. When the selling is overdone, the insiders will jump in to buy. Right now, I'm seeing the buying in many of the retailers as the retail stocks have been pummeled. In some cases, they have been sold off to absurd levels.

2. Rotate into "safer" stocks. While no stock is ever completely safe, there are some industries such as some REITs, online content, and social media companies, that will feel less impact from the trade war.

3. If you're really stressed out, move to the sidelines and wait for a better entry point. Your investments should never keep you up at night.

Source: Zack's

Investec takes defensive position

by Avery Chen

Investec Asset Management expects the world's longest economic expansion since World War II will extend to at least next year but is taking a more defensive approach to delivering a more consistent return amid a late economic cycle, said John Stopford, head of multi-asset income.

The economic cycle may not near its end, given that global central banks are looking to cut interest rates and extend the cycle and Investec reckons there still are some potential growth in the market, he said.

Within growth assets, Investec thinks equities look more attractive, while corporate bonds are pretty fully priced, Stopford said.

He said the company is not relying too heavily on government bonds, as investors have begun to price in for a reasonable probability of recession.

The company prefers the yen to provide a good defense, as it is cheap because Japan has been running a very loose policy for a long time, Stopford said.

Investec also owns options in equity hedging to provide protection.

He also warns that there is room for disappointment in the decision over the United States Federal Reserve's interest rates at the end of July, adding that there's a big argument for cutting rates aggressively.

"What I think in the short term, that's a definite risk", he said, given that there was a lot of speculation in the market that pricing in 50 basis points rate cuts next week, and equities have gone up a lot so far this year.

Source: The Standard

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-n ... 0723&sid=2

10 questions you need to ask before you buy any stock:

1. Is the company currently making money?
2. Has it made a profit in 7 of the last 8 years?
3. Does it have plenty of free cash flow?
4. Does it have the right level of debt for its size?
5. Is its industry growing?
6. Have shareholders enjoyed a good return on their money?
7. Has the company created any new products recently?
8. Has it recently revised its earnings estimates UPWARD?
9. Are some investors selling the stock for reasons unrelated to the fundamental quality of the company?
10. Is the stock’s price currently on the rise?

Source: Trading Tips

Here’s what it takes to weather a major bear market and then buy stocks on the cheap

By Mark Hulbert

Less-aggressive investors can take greater advantage of market downturns

A far better indication of how you will react in the next bear market is how you behaved in the last bear market.

If it’s applicable, go back and see how you actually behaved in the 2007-09 bear market, for example, during which the S&P 500 SPX, -0.26% lost 57%.

How much lower was your equity exposure at the March 2009 bottom than where it was at the October 2007 market top?

There is no shame in realizing you don’t have the stomach to stick with an aggressive strategy through a bear market. The only shame, if there is any, is lying to yourself about it.

My hunch is that you will discover that you don’t have the discipline and courage to stick with a fully invested posture, or any aggressive strategy for that matter, through a major bear market.

If that’s the case, then trim your equity exposure now, when the stock market is at or near all-time highs, rather than wait until the bottom of the bear market to throw in the towel.

Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres ... yptr=yahoo

Four Profitable, Market-Moving Investment Trends

by Nicholas Vardy

No. 1: Interest rates are falling
No. 2: Precious metals are soaring
No. 3: The tech bubble is deflating
No. 4: The "China miracle" is imploding

Source: The Oxford Club

5 ways to beat the market — from a fund manager who’s done it for years

By Michael Brush

Focus on companies with predictable growth, make big bets, and be patient

1. Look for the proverbial self-reinforcing fly wheel
2. Look for what the market gets wrong, then bet the other way
3. Don’t get shaken out of good positions
4. Put money in the path of mega-trends
5. Make big bets

Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-way ... yptr=yahoo

This fund manager consistently beats the stock market by exploiting your foibles

By Michael Brush

1. Exploit fast money dreams
2. Exploit short-term thinking
3. Buy pricing power
4. Buy brand power
5. Hitch a ride on global growth

Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this- ... yptr=yahoo

A Winning Checklist for Finding the Best Stocks to Buy

1. Double-digit sales growth. "You have to see robust top-line growth in order to get really dramatic bottom-line growth."

2. Earnings growth of 20% or better for at least three years. "It's natural for people to think that after three years of 20% growth, the big move is already behind the company.

"But companies tend to get in a profitable niche, find an industry where they've got a competitive advantage and exploit it... and they have several years of extraordinary growth. That's why we want at least three years of 20% or better earnings growth."

3. Earnings growth of 25% or better in the most recent quarter. "We want those earnings to even be accelerating in the most recent quarter, so for the most recent earnings, we want to see 25% or better growth in net income."

4. Return on equity of 17% or better. "Even though this is a growth methodology and Warren Buffett uses a value methodology... he says the single most important criterion when he's evaluating companies for purchase is whether they have a high return on equity; that's how important it is. So we insist on that as well."

5. Level of innovation. "A perfect example of this is Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL). It came out with the iMac, iPod, iTunes music store, iPhone and iPad, and new iterations of all these products..."And because it was a great innovator, that led to strong sales growth, which led to strong earnings growth, which led to the stock making a dramatic move upward."

6. High-quality management. "Just as every great sports franchise needs a Vince Lombardi or Bear Bryant or Phil Jackson or who-have-you to get the maximum out of the team, so do you have to have world-class management to get the best performance out of a stock."

7. Timeline (within eight years of IPO). "Most of the companies that we buy are within eight years of their IPOs. They tend to be young, entrepreneurial companies and midcap stocks."

8. Share buybacks. "When a company announces a big buyback, management is essentially betting their careers that the stock is undervalued; that's a very strong indicator.

9. Technical factors. "You never want to buy into a company that goes through what I call a 'waterfall drop.' That's when the stock's trading up and all of a sudden it goes down due to a bad piece of news.

"Studies show that stocks that have a waterfall drop, six months later they're significantly lower than they were the day they dropped. So you never want to fight the technicals on the stock, and what you want to see is a stock rising on good volume."

10. Institutional support. "The vast majority of the volume that takes place in the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq is not individual investors like you and me... "It's big pension plans and mutual funds and hedge funds and endowments, and you don't want to be buying the stocks that these companies, these huge investors, are selling."

Source: The Oxford Club