Earnings (General News) 03 (Jan 24 - Dec 27)

[winston]

Five themes for traders to watch as earnings kick in

US$9 trillion 2024 rally

Strategists are predicting that companies in the S&P 500 Index will post their weakest results in the past four quarters, with just a 4.3% increase in third-quarter profits compared with a year ago.

In mid-June, projections were for an 8.4% rise, and in the second quarter growth soared to 14%.

There appears to be room for an upside earnings surprise if those reduced forecasts turn out to be overly gloomy.

Five key themes to watch as the results roll in.
> AI slows down
> Stock picker’s paradise
> All about margins
> Choppy European markets
> Election focus

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... gs-kick-in

[behappyalways]

Earnings revisions for Q3 have been revised down quite a bit, meaning the bar is much lower ahead of this earnings season
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1845667918169669943


Another quarter of zero earnings growth for the S&P 493.
https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1846016328508793258

[behappyalways]

Analysts are cutting estimates on Mag 7 earnings growth for 2025 as these mega cap tech companies are seen to have a rising risk of a broader slowdown.
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1852680060546744386

[winston]

US 2025 Earnings

With roughly 90 per cent of companies in the index having already reported, S&P 500 profits are projected to climb by 8.5 per cent through September from a year ago, double the 4.2 per cent estimate at the start of earnings season.

While profits are expected to grow for a fifth-straight quarter, analysts have marked down earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the next 12 months after executives delivered mixed outlooks or held back on offering guidance amid uncertainty over Federal Reserve interest-rates cuts, weakness in China’s economy and questions about fiscal policy in Washington.

“As we approach the beginning of the new year, you tend to see a bias to more realistic expectations”.

“Combined with Fed comments about not seeing a clear rate-cut path, the headwinds become more realistic.”

Since mid-October, analysts have lowered year-ahead projections by the most for energy and materials companies as crude prices slump. Excluding energy, which skewed estimates due to lower commodity prices and ebbing inflation, S&P 500 earnings are forecast to grow by about 11 per cent year-over-year in the third quarter.

All told, S&P 500 profit growth is forecast to climb 15 per cent annually in 2025, up from estimates of 8 per cent this year.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compan ... rket-rally

[behappyalways]

Zombified: 42% Of US Small Caps Still Have 'Negative Earnings'
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/zombi ... e-earnings

[winston]

4Q Earnings

The fourth-quarter earnings announcement season officially kicks off next week, with several big financial institutions scheduled to release results.

And based on early projections, the fourth quarter will kick off several quarters of double-digit earnings growth for the S&P 500.

FactSet currently anticipates that the S&P 500 will achieve average earnings growth of 11.9% in the fourth quarter. That represents the fastest earnings growth in three years.

But what’s even more exciting is that earnings momentum will hit the gas in each of the four quarters of 2025.

FactSet expects average earnings growth of 11.9%, 11.6%, 15.2% and 16.6% in the next four quarters, respectively.

Calendar year 2025 earnings are forecast to soar 14.8% year-over-year, up from current estimates for 9.5% in 2024.

Simply put, earnings are set to accelerate in 2025 – and positive results from our fundamentally superior stocks should dropkick and drive their shares higher this year.

Source: Investor Place

[behappyalways]

S&P 500 earnings growth is expected to accelerate for the second year in a row in 2025
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1881672526545445281

[winston]

4Q Earnings Update:-

About 81% of S&P 500 companies have beaten analyst earnings estimates, according to data from MacroMicro.

The biggest beats relative to consensus are coming from the materials, real estate, financials, and tech sectors.

So far, the energy and healthcare sectors have left much to be desired.

"Magnificent Seven" components have shown good results, headlined by Meta and, to a lesser extent, Microsoft.

Stocks are continuing to chug along this earnings season, notwithstanding the recent one-day DeepSeek-fueled clobbering .

But I have to say, I'm not really digging the commentary on earnings calls regarding future policies from the Trump administration. And I'm really not liking what top leaders are telling me on and off the record.

‌While there is optimism around regulations and taxes, it's as if Trump has frozen the action-oriented public company C-suite. Execs are tepid about taking bold risks until they gain more clarity on taxes and tariffs.

In turn, execs aren't sharing worst-case scenario guidance ranges out of the gate in 2025, which would be helpful to investors (although I get why they aren't releasing this stuff — it could be an ugly headline and draw ire from the president).

This has all the makings of investors being let down on corporate profits this year, among other disappointments.

Source: Yahoo Finance

[winston]

4Q Earnings

According to FactSet, around a quarter of S&P 500 companies have released results so far.

And of these companies, 80% have exceeded analysts’ earnings estimates.

The S&P 500 has posted 12.7% average earnings growth so far, up from forecasts for 11.8% at the end of the quarter.

Source: Market 360

[winston]

4Q Earnings

Over the past few weeks, companies across America have been reporting fourth-quarter earnings results. So far, those numbers have been very strong.

About 80% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings so far this season. More than 75% have beaten Wall Street’s profit estimates, meaning they made more money last quarter than analysts expected.

Meanwhile, the blended earnings growth rate is nearly 17%, which marks the index’s highest profit growth rate since 2021.

This has been an absolutely fantastic earnings season.

More importantly, trends are expected to stay strong for the foreseeable future.

That is, next quarter, earnings are projected to rise about 8%, then another 9% in Q2. They are expected to rise almost 15% in the third quarter and about 13% in the fourth.

In other words, earnings should keep rising for the rest of the year.

Source: Hypergrowth Investing