Warning Signs 03 (Jun 19 - Jun 23)

[winston]

This Indicator Warns of Tough Times Ahead

by Jeff Clark

When high yield bonds are rallying, it’s a “risk-on” environment. That tends to be bullish for stock prices.

When high yield bonds are falling, investors are in a “risk-off” mode. That’s bearish.

For the past six weeks, the junk bond market has been stuck in a tight trading range, which is neither risk-on, nor risk-off.

But, the high yield bond market broke down on Tuesday. If it doesn’t recover right away, then the stock market is in for a tough time.

The action in HYG tends to lead the action in the stock market by anywhere from two days to two weeks. So, if HYG continues lower – towards its March low – then the stock market is vulnerable to a decline towards its March low as well.

That implies a drop towards 3850 on the S&P 500. That’s more than 6% below the current level.

Source: Jeff Clark Trader

https://dailytradealert.com/2023/05/19/ ... mes-ahead/

[behappyalways]

CRE Warning Sign: Goldman Might Sell Ireland's Largest Mall At Loss
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cre-w ... -mall-loss

[behappyalways]

Treasury issuance is heating up next week, with a whopping $296B of US debt on auction!
https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/stat ... 4990076934

[winston]

This Top-Notch Stock is a Great Bargain Right Now

by Adam Galas

Warning Sign #1: The Government Is Trying to “Redefine” a Recession
Warning Sign #2: Potentially Soaring Job Losses
Warning Sign #3: The Worst Productivity Collapse in History
Warning Sign #4: Falling National Income

Pacer US Cash Cows 100 ETF (COWZ). This ETF holds the 100 biggest cash cow companies in America, companies that make lots of free cash. And this cash can be used to pay dividends to investors.

Source: Wide Moat Research

https://dailytradealert.com/2023/06/11/ ... right-now/

[winston]

S&P 500 to Gold Ratio Suggests Caution Ahead for Equities

By Steve Saville

If the SPX/gold ratio is in a multi-year upward trend, then the SPX is in a bull market, and gold is not, whereas if the SPX/gold ratio is in a multi-year downward trend, then gold is in a bull market and the SPX is not.

The idea is that when the SPX/gold ratio is above its 200-week moving average, it means that the SPX is in a bull market and gold is not.

Since peaking in late-2021, the SPX/gold ratio has dropped back to its 200-week MA but is yet to make a sustained break to the downside.

Our view is that a multi-year equity bear market is in progress. However, if the SPX/gold ratio fails to break below its March-2023 low within the next few months and instead makes its way upward, then what transpired during 2022 was an intermediate-term stock market correction within a bull market.

Source: investing.com

https://www.investing.com/analysis/sp-5 ... s_headline

[behappyalways]

Taiwan's exports have been falling for 9 months - a warning sign for global growth

The country's top two exports are:
1) Electrical machinery, equipment: US$245.8 billion (51.4% of total exports)
2) Machinery including computers: $62.9 billion (13.2%)

https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/stat ... 4822888448

[behappyalways]

NVIDIA has now higher Price/Sales ratio (41) than Cisco had (38) in March, 2000.
Cisco revenues $16.8 bln in 03/2000
NVIDIA revenues $25.9 bln in 03/2023

https://twitter.com/hkeskiva/status/1670773171740643330

[winston]

The cardboard box indicator

US supply chains are recovering from their pandemic-induced kinks — just in time for a potential recession and falling demand for goods.

One key indicator of that demand is flashing warning signs: cardboard box sales are falling.

"Sales of cardboard boxes have been declining over the past year, reflecting the ongoing weakness in the goods part of the economy," wrote Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management.

His research shows that sales of boxes dropped by more than 10% in December of 2022 over the same period the year prior.

Nearly every package Americans order to their door shows up encased in cardboard. If there's less demand for those boxes, it could mean that retailers are preparing for fewer sales.

Source: CNN

[winston]

Lofty valuations of US stocks a growing worry for investors

By Lewis Krauskopf

The S&P 500 now trades at 19 times its expected 12-months earnings, well above its historic average of 15.6 times.

Similar valuation levels have preceded periods of rocky performance. Historically, the S&P 500 has experienced a median drawdown of 14% over the next 12 months, when valuations stand at current levels or above, compared with a 5% drawdown over a typical 12-month period,

Valuations are even more stretched for the Nasdaq 100, whose 36% rally this year has dwarfed that of the S&P 500. The index trades at nearly 27 times forward earnings estimates, compared with its historical average of 19.3 times.

Source: Reuters

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/672418

[behappyalways]

Watch: 'Thermonator' Robot Dog Shoots Flames As 'Skynet Moment' Nears
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/wa ... ment-nears