Market Sentiment 05 (Nov 17 - Dec 25)

[behappyalways]

'AI Bubble' Canary Meets Coalmine - CoreWeave Reportedly Drastically Downsizes IPO Size
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/ai ... s-ipo-size

[behappyalways]

Hold on tight, folks.
https://x.com/leadlagreport/status/1909305307802579090

[behappyalways]

This is exactly how you f**k retail.
https://x.com/leadlagreport/status/1911181229094818026

[behappyalways]

There really is no fear. Retail has been buying aggressively during the recent volatility. Don't think that the lows are anywhere near in over the intermediate term.
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1912316426695684380

[winston]

Investor Sentiment Hits 30-Year Low as Recession Fears Rise

by Parth Sanghvi

Investor confidence is nearing historic lows, with sentiment levels in April falling to the most bearish reading in three decades, according to the latest BofA Global Fund Manager Survey (FMS). The survey reflects a wave of pessimism that has reshaped asset allocation strategies across global markets.

Key Findings from the April FMS

82% of respondents expect global growth to weaken — the worst reading in the survey's 30-year history.

42% see a recession as likely.

49% expect a “hard landing”, up sharply from 11% last month.

Cash holdings surged to 4.8%, marking the biggest 2-month spike since the 2020 COVID crash.

U.S. equities saw a record 53 percentage point drop in allocation since late February, leaving investors 36% net underweight.

Source: FMP

https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/ ... fears-rise

[behappyalways]

As
@Chartfest1
has been pointing out, the surge in penny stocks ("sub-dollar" as Goldman calls it) has seemed unusually large. Goldman confirmed that Monday noting that they have "climbed since 2021 and were the highest EVER on June 12th at 47.4% of total market volume".
https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1934935052548292938

[winston]

BoA Fund Manager Survey Says Sentiment Indicator Returns to ‘Goldilocks Bull’ Lv.

The Bank of America (BoA)'s latest global fund manager survey shows that the sentiment indicator, which reflects investors' growth expectations, cash levels and equity allocations, climbed to 5.4 in June, the highest since the announcement of the US reciprocal tariffs on 2 April.

Investor sentiment has returned to pre-reciprocal tariff ‘Goldilocks bull’ levels, but is not worryingly bullish, according to the BoA. 66% of respondents said they believe in a ‘soft landing’.

Related: NewsCore Inflation Rate YoY for May in United States is 2.8%, unchanged from its last period. The forecast was 2.9%.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[behappyalways]

Retail investor purchases in the first half of 2025 have exceeded the speculative mania of the first half of 2021
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1942052649790062676

[winston]

BofA says 'toppy' sentiment to spark stocks rotation, not retreat

By Danilo Masoni & Amanda Cooper

Biggest jump in profit optimism in five years and a record surge in risk appetite.

Cash levels fell to 3.9% in July, a low that triggered an in-house "sell signal".

The survey showed sentiment was getting somewhat exuberant, or "toppy", but fund managers' overweight positioning in stocks was not yet at extreme levels and bond market volatility remained low.

Home
BofA says 'toppy' sentiment to spark stocks rotation, not retreat
US Stocks
BofA says 'toppy' sentiment to spark stocks rotation, not retreat
By Danilo Masoni & Amanda Cooper / Reuters
15 Jul 2025, 04:49 pm
main news image
MILAN/LONDON (July 15): Investor sentiment surged in July to its most bullish since February, driven by the biggest jump in profit optimism in five years and a record surge in risk appetite, Bank of America's latest global fund manager survey showed.

Cash levels fell to 3.9% in July, a low that triggered an in-house "sell signal" from the investment bank's strategists.

In a note published on Tuesday, BofA said the survey showed sentiment was getting somewhat exuberant, or "toppy", but fund managers' overweight positioning in stocks was not yet at extreme levels and bond market volatility remained low.


"Greed (is) always much harder to reverse than fear" adding that investors were more likely to stick to a "summer of hedging and rotation" rather than laying on big short bets or retreating from the market altogether.

Volatility measures for stocks, bonds and currencies remained muted, suggesting there is little sense of panic to hedge or shift positions.

The bond market has seen pressure particularly in long-dated debt, as investors prepare for a rise in government borrowing and spending.

In currencies, the survey showed fund managers were holding their biggest overweight position in the euro since January 2005.

The euro has been a major beneficiary of investor flows out of the US dollar this year, having gained nearly 13% this year to around its highest in almost four years.

Source: Reuters

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/762683

[behappyalways]

Oh boy. Retail trading activity has surged to the highest level since at least 2018.
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1945816876744851704