Warning Signs 03 (Jun 19 - Jun 23)

[winston]

Why the falling use of cardboard boxes is a bad sign for the global economy

North American companies that make the raw material for corrugated boxes shut down nearly 1 million tons of capacity in the third quarter

WestRock and Packaging Corporation of America have announced mill closures or idled machines amid falling demand

US prices fell in November for the first time in two years and the US, the world’s biggest exporter, reported 21 per cent lower volumes sent overseas in October versus the previous year.

The meteoric growth of e-commerce – an avid user of cardboard boxes – has receded.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3 ... gn=3204351

[behappyalways]

Good chart of #CAPE with events. #Stocks still are not cheap.

https://mobile.twitter.com/LanceRoberts ... 2831411203

[behappyalways]

IMF Head Warns Third Of World In Recession This Year
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/imf-h ... ssion-year

[winston]

Equities Market Is Flashing Warning Signs

By Michele Schneider

The 52-week New High / New Low ratio for the Nasdaq Composite has begun to deteriorate, a clear Risk-Off indication for the short term.

And, despite the improvement in the market, the Yield Curve has continued to invert further.

Regional Banks KRE has not had a golden cross (the 50 daily moving average clears above the 200-DMA).

Another member of the Economic Modern Family, Transportation, is also flashing a warning on the weekly chart.

Transportation and Regional Banks make up nearly 1/3 of the Economic Modern Family.

Source: investing.com

https://www.investing.com/analysis/equi ... s_headline

[winston]

This Leading Indicator Shows The Stock Market is on Shaky Ground

by Jeff Clark

When junk is rallying, it’s a “risk-on” environment – and stocks tend to do well.

But when junk bonds are falling in price, investors are reducing their risks. And in this sort of “risk-off” environment, stocks tend to fall.

HYG peaked about two weeks ago. Yet the broad stock market has managed to push higher.

However, since high-yield bonds tend to lead stocks, the recent rally in the S&P 500 is on shaky ground.

Source: Jeff Clark Trader

https://dailytradealert.com/2023/02/01/ ... ky-ground/

[behappyalways]

Why did the sirens in Hong Kong blare when something happened to Credit Suisse?

23.03.21【豐富│東南西北龍鳳配】Pt.1 為什麼瑞士信貸出事，香港的警報器就大叫？

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vLU-9Yp_svc

[behappyalways]

South Korea's real estate collapse: the first shadow banking crisis in history

韩国房地产爆崩：史上第一次影子银行危机，哪条小龙下一个渡劫？

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FsEVUwRzQ_Q&t=1s

[behappyalways]

"Credit Tightening" Mentions In Earnings Calls By Execs Soars Past 2008 Levels
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/credi ... 008-levels

[behappyalways]

Bankruptcies are expected to surge sadly, if SLOOS is any indication. Leads by 6-9 mos.
https://twitter.com/SamanthaLaDuc/statu ... 2854474752

[winston]

This Recession Indicator Hasn’t Been Wrong in 57 Years, and It Has a Very Clear Message for Wall Street

by Sean Williams

A yield-curve inversion doesn’t guarantee the U.S. will fall into a recession; but it is worth noting that every recession after World War II has been preceded by a yield-curve inversion.

From the NY Fed’s recession-probability indicator, there’s a 68.22% chance the U.S. will enter a recession over the next 12 months. That’s the highest probability of a recession occurring in the next 12 months in 41 years. Not coincidentally, we’re also witnessing the largest yield-curve inversion between the three-month and 10-year note in more than four decades.

As of March 2023, M2 money supply had declined 4.1% year-over-year, which marks its largest drop in 90 years.

Though it’s possible the next couple of months or quarters could be turbulent for stocks, the future for equities remains as bright as ever.

Source: The Motley Fool

https://dailytradealert.com/2023/05/16/ ... ll-street/