Only a fool tries to survive by acting like a vegetable, staying rooted in one place, when the political and economic climate changes for the worse.
— Doug Casey
When I’m looking for stocks that hold their own in a crash or snap back for big gains when the dust settles, I zero in on three things:
1. hefty discounts,
2. share buybacks and
3. quick dividend growth.
Brian Hunter – the trader that single-handedly accounted for the largest hedge-fund meltdown since records began – ignored one of the most important lessons you can learn as an investor – Proper position sizing.
To save ourselves from the same costly mistake as Mr. Hunter, we can do three things:
1. Know Your Risk on Every Investment or Trade. This may sound simple, but many investors enter a trade without knowing their precise exit point should the trade move against them. This is typically called a protective stop. If any of your trades or investments don’t have a protective stop, drop everything and add one!
2. Only Risk a Small Amount on Any One Position or Idea. As a useful guideline, you should risk a maximum of 1% – 2% of your equity on any one position or idea, especially if we’re talking about your “nest egg” money.
3. Understand All of the Risks. Not many of us will trade natural gas contracts far into the future. However, there are other instruments that suffer from similar “lack of liquidity” problems. If you trade penny stocks or options that are out of the mainstream, make sure you adjust your position size to account for increased slippage.
On March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 hit an intraday low of 666.79. In the eight years since, it has steadily climbed roughly 280 percent to above 2,500 for the first time, without a single decline of at least 20 percent along the way.
Not only is the S&P 500 now more than 63 percent higher than its previous all-time high before the 2008 financial crisis, it is the second-longest bull market in U.S. history.
The longest bull market ever lasted almost 10 years, from Oct. 11, 1990, to March 24, 2000. During that bull market, the S&P 500 gained a total of 417 percent.
One of the best indicators of the health of a bull market is investor skepticism.
Total domestic short interest in stocks has climbed from $767.5 billion at the end of 2015 to more than $929.2 billion as of Sept. 30, 2017. "
1. Hold Cash; I like the idea of holding at least 10%-20% of your wealth in cash.
2. Hold Physical Precious Metals; The S&P 500 plummeted 38% in 2008… But gold rose 6%. I like the idea of holding at least 5%-10% of your wealth in physical precious metals.
3. Hold Real Estate and Commodities
4. Use Stop Losses
5. Use Intelligent Position Sizing
1. How bad will things get?
2. Will emerging markets outperform the U.S.?
3. Will actively managed funds outperform index funds?
4. Will managed futures provide positive performance in a down market again?
5. Will commodities provide diversification benefits?
6. How will cryptocurrencies react?
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