Risks Out There 07 (May 23 - Dec 26)

[behappyalways]

If the Japanese carry trade was the true driver of the manic melt up in tech stocks (and not “AI”), then watch out below if the worlds largest carry trade blows up.
https://twitter.com/Porter_and_Co/statu ... 6390775818

[winston]

A 'Black Swan' investor warns of an epic debt bubble - and says stocks are overvalued and set to plunge

by Theron Mohamed

Mark Spitznagel flagged a huge credit bubble, slammed the Fed, and endorsed Warren Buffett's advice.

The Universa Investments boss warned stocks and debt levels are too high and will end in disaster.

Retail investors should buy an index fund, not dump stocks for gold or trade options, he said.

We're "living in an age of leverage, an age of credit, and it will have consequences.

He predicted steeper borrowing costs would hinder economic growth, force governments to restrict their spending and lead to central banks keeping interest rates lower then they'd like.

Source: Business Insider

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/black-sw ... 19554.html

[behappyalways]

Zhon-gone: the 7 scariest words in all finance
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/16 ... 4670716105

[winston]

Investors are forgetting the 'pain before the pivot' - and failing to see the debt disaster ahead, expert warns

by Theron Mohamed

Investors are forgetting how brutal the period before Fed rate cuts can be, Stephanie Pomboy warns.

Rate hikes caused delayed damage, and rate cuts don't work instantly, the Macro Mavens founder says.

Pomboy expects the delayed impacts of higher interest rates to hammer households and businesses.

In response to inflation hitting 40-year highs last year, the Fed has lifted its benchmark interest rate from almost zero to over 5% within the last 18 months.

"After the housing bubble bust, they refused to even borrow on their credit cards for a long, long, long time after, they were so chastened by that experience," she noted. "We will definitely go through a period like that."

Source: Business Insider

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investor ... 49490.html

[behappyalways]

It probably isn't anything to be too concerned about
https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/stat ... 2936969456

[behappyalways]

Stress in the financial system is rising: The value of global bonds dropped another $428bn this week as the interest rate world keeps repricing for a higher for longer. In past quarter, bonds lost ~$1.8tn in value and everyone is puzzling over who has the losses on their books.
https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/sta ... 7402602534

[behappyalways]

"US banks held $5.436 trillion in debt securities... these securities lost $140bn in value during the quarter... Cumulative unrealized losses were $558.4bn in Q2 and have now surpassed the previous peak of $689.9bn in Q3 2022."

[behappyalways]

Rising debt, rising oil prices, government shutdowns and waves of strikes, are all compounding challenges facing the global economic market!
Risk awareness needs to be improved!

債務高漲、油價上漲、政府關門、罷工潮 全球經濟市場面臨複合式挑戰！ 風險意識要提升！【Yahoo TV】

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=B2Olp8TYgWY

[winston]

2024 risk outlook

By B.K. SIDHU

https://cdn.thestar.com.my/Content/Imag ... 102023.jpg

Source: the Star

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... sk-outlook

[behappyalways]

World's Oldest Central Bank Seeking $7 Billion Bailout After Massive Bond Losses
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/world ... ond-losses