US - Economic Slowdown 07 (Aug 22 - Dec 25)

[winston]

Economic wobble

The U.S. unemployment rate is currently hovering near 50-year lows, and the Fed broadly sees an overheated labor market with demand for employees exceeding the supply of labor market participants.

But that could change as the Fed continues to raise rates.

“The last piece of the puzzle is that the economy falters, and you see real data in the economy, the labor market, inflation comes down, that things are actually contracting”.

The bright spot for investors would be that by the time the economic data stumbles, the stock market may already be in recovery mode as equities tend to bottom well before the conclusion of a recession.

According to historical data from JPMorgan, on average, the S&P 500 sees a bottom three months after the beginning of a recession and reaches a cyclical low 10 months before the end of a recession.

"A recession is pretty likely at this point — doesn’t mean it has to be bad, doesn’t mean it has to be armageddon".

"Recessions reset the business cycle, and that might be a positive in this environment."

Source: Yahoo Finance

[winston]

The number of actual working Americans hasn’t changed a great deal since March 2022

But what has changed is the number of people losing their full-time employment, having to take lower-paying, part-time jobs.

And within that group, about 25% are working two jobs to make ends meet.

Source: Investor Place

[winston]

60 days delinquent auto loans

TransUnion, which tracks more than 81 million auto loans in the U.S., said Tuesday the percentage of loans that are at least 60 days delinquent hit 1.65% in the third quarter, the highest rate for 60-day delinquencies in more than a decade.

Source: CNBC

[behappyalways]

"Organized Crime" Looters Steal Astounding $400 Million In Goods From Target Stores
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/targe ... oot-stores

[winston]

60% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck heading into the peak shopping season

Source: CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/18/60perce ... liday.html

As of October, 60% of Americans were living paycheck to paycheck, according to a recent LendingClub report. A year ago, the number of adults who felt stretched too thin was closer to 56%.

[behappyalways]

Wealthier Shoppers Flocking To Walmart As Inflation Bites
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-fina ... tion-bites

[winston]

Personal Saving Rate

The personal saving rate — meaning personal saving as a percentage of disposable income, or the share of income left after paying taxes and spending money — fell to 3.3% in the third quarter...

That is the lowest level since the Great Recession and the eighth-lowest quarterly rate on record (since 1947).

Source: Investor Place

[winston]

Massive number job cuts taking place right now in the tech industry

Twitter is cutting 50% of its workforce (about 3,700 jobs).
Facebook is cutting 11,000 jobs--its largest round of layoffs ever.
Snap is cutting 20% of its workforce (1,200 jobs).
Shopify is cutting 10% of its workforce (1,000 jobs).
Netflix cut 450 jobs.
Microsoft and Salesforce are each cutting 1,000 jobs.
Robinhood is cutting 31% of its workforce.
Tesla is cutting 10% of salaried workers.
Lyft is cutting 13% of its workforce (700 jobs).
Redfin is cutting 13% of its workforce.
Coinbase is cutting 18% of its workforce (1,100 jobs).
Stripe is cutting 14% of its workforce (1,000 jobs).

And in addition to these massive cuts, Amazon has announced a hiring freeze, Apple has paused almost all hiring, and Google is reducing new hiring by 50%.

Source: Stansberry Research

[behappyalways]

Holiday Hardship: 1 In 4 Americans Skipping Thanksgiving Entirely To Save Money
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-fina ... save-money

[winston]

Black Friday & Cyber Monday Sales

Despite the record online spending this Black Friday, consumers' concerns about the economy are at the highest level since the Great Recession in 2008-2009.

More than 60% of Americans said the state of the economy was impacting their holiday spending plans, according to the NRF…

Americans are turning to buy now, pay later orders, which allow shoppers to pay through interest-free installments.

Buy now, pay later orders spiked 78% this week compared to the previous week, according to Adobe. Revenue from these orders is also up 81% in the same period.

The above data refer to shopping last week. As to yesterday’s Cyber Monday results, buy-now-pay-later orders were up 85% over last week, with revenues up 88%.

Source: Investor Place