Yen Plunges After BOJ's Ueda Admits It's "Difficult To Exit Negative Rates", Shattering Normalization Hopes
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yen-p ... shattering
Traders of overnight indexed swaps — who last year were certain that the central bank would end its negative-interest-rate policy by the March 18-19 gathering — now see the chances around 34%.
By contrast, economists who previously considered a move next month as unlikely are now talking about the meeting as a “live” event.
Overall, the economists still forecast April as the most likely time for a policy shift.
“If negative interest rates are lifted in March, bond yields may jump unexpectedly.”
This is in turn would probably strengthen the yen, which until recently has supported the Japanese stock market, in part because its weakness helped exporters.
Higher yields in Japan would also encourage the nation’s institutional investors, who are among the biggest players in global bond markets, to keep more money at home.
When will the Bank of Japan (BoJ) exit negative interest rates? The country’s biggest bank expects the move to come in two weeks.
BoJ will likely make an additional hike to take the policy rate to 0.25% by October at the latest “to secure future policy flexibility” after raising rates at its next meeting on March 19 for the first time since 2007.
There will be “structural changes” in the Japanese government bond (JGB) market once the BoJ ends negative rates and starts paying 0.1% interest rates on reserves. This will likely trigger a fall in demand for JGBs, pushing down their prices and driving up yields.
Wages and exports increasing.
Higher rates may curb growth and tame the stock market rally.
Growth-oriented companies in particular may face challenges if higher rates lead to the yen appreciating because that would make their goods more expensive abroad.
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