HK - Housing 04 (Apr 16 - Jun 24)

[winston]

JPM: HK Home Price May Jump Over 10% This Yr; Real Estate Top-pick SHK PPT

JPMorgan believed the home price momentum in Hong Kong would be moderating despite a record high price, adding concerns over potential market tightening steps could alleviate as the monthly price hike was below 1%.

In absence of policy risk uncertainty, the broker expected this year's residential price hike to surpass its prior forecast of 10%, helped by the reviving money supply growth.

HSBC Research Sees Slower HK Home Price Uptick in 2H; Upbeat on SHKP, Sino Land for Developers

SHK PPT (00016.HK) was the top-pick among developers, on the ride of the recent launch of new properties and enormous land reserves.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

With tighter grip, Beijing sends message to Hong Kong tycoons: Fall in line

Pour resources and influence into backing Beijing’s interests, and help solve a potentially destabilising housing shortage.

Beijing is no longer willing to tolerate “monopoly behaviour".

The companies have long exerted outsized power under the city’s hybrid political system, helping to choose its leaders, shaping government policies, and reaping the benefits of a land auction system that kept supply tight and property prices among the world’s highest.

Source: Reuters

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wi ... l-in-line/

[winston]

CLSA: Policy Concern May Trigger HK Developer Sell-off; Risk Lies in Govt's Potential Policy Change

Hong Kong developers were informed last Friday, to not only protect national interests using their resources and influence but also to give back to society and help resolve housing shortage, CLSA citing foreign media.

This triggered a sell-off among local developers today.

However, there is little developers can do under the current supply mechanism. The risks indeed lie in the HKSAR government's potential policy changes, of which CLSA has seen no signs yet.

Related News: JPM Urges Investors to Dump CN Developers on Rebound; Downgrades Sunac, Logan, Jinmao, Aoyuan, Evergrande Property to UW, Country Garden to Neutral

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

Hong Kong developers plunged into turmoil amid concerns Beijing targeting property firms, six firms lose US$11 billion in market value

Reuters report that Chinese officials have told Hong Kong developers they should use their resources and influence to champion state interests prompts sell-off

Although no policies have been announced, we suggest maintaining a defensive stance on Hong Kong developers: Citi analyst

by Cheryl Heng & Sandy Li

Home prices nearing all-time highs were driving policy risk concerns amid a potential change in the city’s leadership.

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/business/markets/a ... ns-beijing

[winston]

Developers say they have not heard about "tycoon meetings"

Developers said they have not heard about Beijing officials meeting property tycoons in order to ask them to do more to solve the housing problem.

In a Reuters last week, it was said that the central government met with local tycoons, asking them to do more to help solve the financial hub's potentially destabilizing housing shortage.

Beijing officials delivered the message in closed meetings this year, Reuters reported, quoting three major developers and a Hong Kong government adviser. During the meetings, Beijing reportedly told the tycoons it will no longer tolerate “monopolizing behavior”.

Stewart Leung Chi-kin, chairman of The Real Estate Developers Association of Hong Kong, said he never heard about Beijing meeting members of the association.

He said members maintained communications with the government to discuss how to solve the problem of high property prices. But it is difficult to solve the problem in the short term, he said.

Sun Hung Kai Properties also said it did not receive any information about such meetings between Beijing and property tycoons.

Separately, a Morgan Stanley report estimated that property price could plunge 20 percent by 2022 if the government dramatically increases annual housing supply from 35,000 to 100,000.

Without such increase, it projected that property price to go up nine percent and five percent respectively this year and next.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking ... eetings%22

[winston]

Hong Kong Real Estate/Property - Taking a Defensive Stance on HK Developers

Pecking order: Retail > Office > Residential

HK property stocks, especially developers, have declined sharply following a REUTERS news report quoting Chinese officials delivering a message to HK property tycoons to pour resources and influence into backing Beijing's interests, and help solve the housing shortage.

Although no policies have been announced, we suggest maintaining a defensive stance on HK developers.

We view retail landlords as having minimal policy risks and see upside on potential border re-opening.

Top Picks: Hang Lung, Wharf REIC. Among developers, we expect cheap landbank low gearing play, SHKP, will relatively outperform.

Source: Citi

[winston]

2022 property outlook: Super-size mansions, nano flats, and home offices round out the most important trends in Hong Kong’s housing market

Mansions which cost at least HK$100 million each will become even larger in the new year, as developers aim to catch the eyes of the ultra rich from mainland China

Micro-apartments will shrink even further in Hong Kong as these diminutive abodes are the first rung of the property ladder for many first-home buyers

by Sandy Li

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3 ... me-offices

[winston]

Hong Kong’s lived-in home prices will drop 5 per cent in 2022 as people, capital head for the exit, UBS says

UBS is the second investment bank to forecast a decrease in the world’s most expensive property market, after Morgan Stanley

An emigration wave and an exit of capital because of tightened mainland regulations will contribute to the drop, says the Swiss bank

by Xinlu Liang

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/business/money/art ... le-capital

[behappyalways]

More Than a Story: More Than Just a Housing Crisis | South China Morning Post
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zUs3nkN_QAk

[winston]

Hong Kong home prices could nosedive 30 per cent through 2023 as interest rates repel buyers, Goldman Sachs forecasts

The American investment bank issues a pessimistic revision of an earlier forecast that predicted a 20 per cent decline

High mortgage rates will continue to reduce affordability and keep investors away without better economic conditions or more policy support, the bank says

by Lam Ka-sing

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3 ... 264fdfa25f