TOL as of April 22, 2012 :-

Confused ?

If you are confused as to what to do next, I dont really blame you.

I’ve had that same feeling for the past few weeks too.

And I’m still waiting for that breakout to reduce my position further. Or that breakdown to go shopping.

But didnt the “momentum experts” said that you should be buying breakouts and selling breakdowns ?

The week in review :-

Commodities

1. Oil – Flat. US$103 from US$103 last week from US$103 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ?

2. Gold – Weaker. US$11643 from US$1658 last week from US$1629 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested in Maple Leaf Coins, Zhaojin & Real Gold.

3. Silver – Flat. US$31.66 from US$31.49 last week from US$31.66 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.19; Resistance at US$38 ? Vested in Silver ETF HK 10072

Equities

1. US Equities – Stronger. 1379 from 1370 last week from 1398 the previous week. Support at 1343 ? Resistance at 1420 ?

2. HK Equities – Stronger. 21011 from 20701 last week from 20593 the previous week. Resistance at 21050 then 21350 ? Support at 20150 ? Traded Rexlot

3. Shanghai Equities – Stronger. 2407 from 2359 last week from 2307 the previous week. Support at 2285 ? Resistance at 2410 then 2460 ? Vested in A50 China ETF

4. Spore Equities – Stronger. 2995 from 2988 last week from 2986 the previous week. No trade

5. Japan Equities – Weaker. 9561 from 9638 last week from 9689 the previous week. Support at 9575 taken out. Next support at 9465 ? Resistance at 10130 ? Nikkei was weaker des[ite the weak JPY.

Currencies

1. JPY – Weaker. 81.52 from 80.93 last week from 81.63 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. MYR to SGD – Weaker. 2.4547 from 2.4433 last week from 2.4328 the previous week. Bought some MYR. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD – Flat. 1.0379 from 1.0378 last week from 1.0311 the previous week. Vested

4. EUR – Stronger. 1.322 from 1.3078 last week from 1.3096 the previous week.

5. HKD – Weaker. 7.7609 from 7.7605 last week from 7.7645 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7521-7.7972

6. Dollar Index – Weaker. 79.14 from 79.88 last week from 79.83 the previous week. Vested thru HKD.

Interest Rates

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds – Higher; 5.66% from 5.52% last week from 5.45% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - 5.96%. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries – 1.96%

4. Others – India cut the repo rate, the rate at which the central bank lends to commercial banks, by 50 basis points, to 8 per cent.

Risk-On / Risk-Off

1. Emerging Markets – Inflows from Outflows last week from Outflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX – Weaker. HK$51b from HK$54b last week from HK$53b the previous week.

3. Hedge Funds – No major redemptions

4. Deleveraging – Why deleverage when you can borrow at close to zero percent ?

5. Sentiment – Mixed.  Friends and relatives are now telling me that they need to do something with their cash.

6. Headwinds – European Contagion, Weak Economies of the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran

7. Tailwinds – Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

8. Risk Management – Peter Lynch once mentioned before that the market drops 10% every year and 25% every 4 years. And if a correction does come along, why would you be surprised ?

Others

1. Properties – Do you really see the property market turning around next year ? If not, why are you thinking of buying an investment property ?

2. Short-Selling & Buying Puts – No new positions. No fear in the air.

3. US Market Direction – Mixed

Earnings season is in full swing and there are surprises everyday.

My gut feel is that people will soon be quite fed up. And thereafter, they will not really care whether earnings are coming in better or worst than expectation.
‘Sell in May & Go Away”, could be just around the corner.

BTW, it was options expiration last Friday so it would be interesting to see whether the market would correct some time next week.

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It’s not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

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Second Opinion – Please see the “Second Opinion” thread in the “Services for InvestIdeas Members” section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

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TOL as of April 15, 2012:-

Lemmings running around

Just when you thought that the market was going to drop, someone spread the news that China will have better-than-expected GDP numbers.

The market then went up, only to see a steep drop the next day, when the actual numbers came out below expectation.

It seems so easy to manipulate the market, as there’s a bunch of lemmings that are so afraid to be left out of any rally, while there’s another bunch of lemmings, who are so jittery.

Or could it be that there’s only a bunch of lemmings, running round and round ?

The week in review:-

1. Oil – Flat. US$103 from US$103 last week from US$103 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ?

2. Gold – Stronger. US$1658 from US$1629 last week from US$1668 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested in Maple Leaf Coins, Zhaojin & Real Gold.

3. Silver – Flat. US$31.49 from US$31.66 last week from US$32.22 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.19; Resistance at US$38 ? Vested in Silver ETF HK 10072

4. Sugar – Sugar traders are bearish for a seventh consecutive week, the longest stretch since at least 2007, on prospects for the first supply glut in four years.

5. Shanghai Equities – Stronger. 2359 from 2307 last week from 2263 the previous week. Support at 2285 ? Resistance at 2410 ? Vested in A50 China ETF 2823.

6. HK Equities – Stronger. 20701 from 20593 last week from 20556 the previous week. Resistance at 21050 ? Support at 20150 ? Traded Rexlot.

7. Spore Equities – Flat. 2988 from 2986 last week from 3010 the previous week. No trade

8. US Equities – Weaker. 1370 from 1398 last week from 1408 the previous week. Support at 1343 ? Resistance at 1420 then 1440 ?

9. Japan Equities – Weaker. 9638 from 9689 last week from 10084 the previous week. Support at 9575 ? Resistance at 10130 ?

10. JPY – Stronger. 80.93 from 81.63 last week from 82.87 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

11. Emerging Markets – Outflows;  http://www.epfr.com

12. MYR to SGD – Weaker. 2.4433 from 2.4328 last week from 2.4362 the previous week. Buying MYR on dips. Upcoming GE a concern.

13. AUD – Flat. 1.0378 from 1.0311 last week from 1.0343 the previous week. Vested

14. EUR – Flat. 1.3078 from 1.3096 last week from 1.334 the previous week.

15. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds – Higher; 5.52% from 5.45% last week from 5.12% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

16. USD – Flat. 79.88 from 79.83 last week from 78.94 the previous week. Vested thru HKD.

17. Properties – Why would you now want to buy an investment property in HK, Singapore or China at this point in time ?

18. Liquidity – Stronger

a. HKD – Stronger. 7.7605 from 7.7645 last week from 7.766 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7521 – 7.7972.

b. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX weaker at HK$54b from HK$53b last week from HK$57b the previous week.

19. Sentiment – Mixed

20. Risk Management – Are you prepared for a 10% – 15% correction ?

21. Hedge Funds – No major redemptions

22. Deleveraging – If not now, then when ?

23. Interest Rates – Do you really believe that interest rates will continue to be so low until 2014 ?

24. Headwinds – European Contagion, Weak Economies of the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran

25. Tailwinds – Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

26. Short-Selling & Buying Puts – No new position. No fear yet, which means that any correction, may be just a dip.

27. US Market Direction – Weaker

Earnings season is now in full force.

And are you really that smart, to be able to predict Market Direction, when there are results announcement, all over the place ?

If the “experts” cannot even get Alcoa correct, what chance do you really have ?

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It’s not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button – If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) – Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion – Please see the “Second Opinion” thread in the “Services for InvestIdeas Members” section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics – Do you know that there’s an “Active Topics” button? It’s located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

For similar articles and discussions, please do visit the forum:-http://investideas.net/forum/index.php

TOL as of April 08, 2012:-

The Last Few Puffs ?

The markets are weaker than expected, triggered by the FOMC minutes.

And if there was any underlying strength, the market would have bounced back immediately.

Anyway, it’s a long week-end, so market participants may be afraid to buy.

Let’s see whether we would get that technical rebound on Tuesday.

The week in review:-

1. Oil – Flat. US$103 from US$103 last week from US$107 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ?

2. Gold – Weaker. US$1629 from US$1668 last week from US$1664 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested. Indian Jewelers end 3 week strike

3. Silver – Weaker. US$31.66 from US$32.22 last week from US$32.11 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.19; Resistance at US$38 ? Bought Silver ETF

4. Palm Oil – Advanced to highest in 13 Months, as Soybean Supply dwindles

5. Shanghai Equities – Stronger. 2307 from 2263 last week from 2350 the previous week. Support at 2150 ? Resistance at 2460 ? Bought A50 China ETF

6. HK Equities – Flat. 20593 from 20556 last week from 20669 the previous week. Resistance at 21350 ? Support at 19000 ? Bought Zhaojin Mining and Rexlot.

7. Spore Equities – Weaker. 2986 from 3010 last week from 2990 the previous week. No trade

8. US Equities – Weaker. 1398 from 1408 last week from 1397 the previous week. Support at 1343 ? Resistance at 1420 then 1440 ?

9. Japan Equities – Weaker. 9689 from 10084 last week from 10011 the previous week. Support at 9575 ? Resistance at 10130 ?

10. JPY – Stronger. 81.63 from 82.87 last week from 82.35 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

11. Emerging Markets – Outflows;  http://www.epfr.com

12. MYR to SGD – Stronger. 2.4328 from 2.4362 last week from 2.4382 the previous week. Buying MYR on dips. Upcoming GE a concern.

13. AUD – Weaker. 1.0311 from 1.0343 last week from 1.0472 the previous week. Vested

14. EUR – Weaker. 1.3096 from 1.334 last week from 1.3271 the previous week.

15.Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds – Higher.  5.45% from 5.12% last week from 5.04% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

16. USD – Stronger. 79.83 from 78.94 last week from 79.29 the previous week. Vested thru HKD.

17. Properties – Small dip in HK & Spore rather than a crash ?

18. Liquidity – Mixed

a. HKD – Stronger. 7.7645 from 7.766 last week from 7.7679 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7521 – 7.7972.

b. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX weaker at HK$53b from HK$57b last week from HK$57b the previous week.

19. Sentiment – Cautious

20. Risk Management – Have you been thinking about your Upside Risk ?

21. Hedge Funds – No major redemptions

22. Deleveraging – Orderly or disorderly ? And will the Ratings Agencies make use of the rally to downgrade the IBs ? ( as they cant really downgrade when there’s a downdraft ).

23. Interest Rates – When will interest rate spike up ?

24. Headwinds – European Contagion, Weak Economies of the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran

25. Tailwinds – Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

26. Short-Selling & Buying Puts – No new positions.

27. US Market Direction – Weaker

Do you see a small dip or a sharp correction ?

And if it’s a small dip, is it worth the risk of shorting the market, on an uptrend ?

However, isn’t that a “M” forming on the charts ?

And will US Earnings be the catalyst that will drive the market lower ?

Finally, before you start shorting, you may want to note that the ‘expert” Analysts have been lowering US earning estimates over the past few months. It’s now a very low bar to exceed expectation …

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It’s not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button – If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) – Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion – Please see the “Second Opinion” thread in the “Services for InvestIdeas Members” section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics – Do you know that there’s an “Active Topics” button? It’s located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

For similar aricles and discussions, please do visit the forum:-http://investideas.net/forum/index.php