Tag Archives: Trading Quote

Winston’s Investment Blog: TOL as of Nov 27, 2011

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TOL as of November 27, 2011:-

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Santa Claus Rally ?

The traditional Santa Claus rally will supposedly start in about two weeks.

Is your portfolio ready for that rally ?

And what happens if Santa Claus does not show up this year, as in 2008 ?

The week in review:-

1. Oil – Flat. US$97 from US$97 last week from US$99 the previous week. Still expecting Oil to fall.

2. Gold – Weaker. US$1686 from US$1726 last week from US$1789 the previous week. Record US$1920.

3. Silver – Weaker. US$31.08 from US$32.31 last week from US$ 34.65 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$29.84; Resistance at US$38 ? Still watching.

4. Commodities – A brewing La Nina weather could worsen the monsoon rains and limit production of some soft commodities.

5. Shanghai Equities – Weaker. 2380 from 2417 last week from 2481 the previous week. Support at 2320 ? Resistance at 2570 ? Will the soft landing morph into a hard planding ? When will the NPLs appear ?

6. HK Equities- Weaker. 17689 from 18491 last week from 19137 the previous week. Resistance at 20,500 ? Support at 16250 ? No Trade.

7. Spore Equities- Weaker. 2644 from 2730 last week from 2791 the previous week. Bought Hutch Port. Added to China Mingzhong.

8. US Equities- Weaker. 1159 from 1216 last week from 1264 the previous week. Support at 1120 ? Resistance at 1285 ?

9. Japan Equities – Weaker. 8160 from 8375 last week from 8514 the previous week. Support at 8100.? Resistance at 9100 ? And why would you want to invest in this country ?

10. JPY – Weaker. 77.745 from 76.91 last week from 77.19 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 79.50. When will they intervene again ?

11. Emerging Markets – Outflows;  http://www.epfr.com

12. AUD – Weaker. 0.9714 from 1.001 last week from 1.0279 the previous week. Vested

13. EUR – Weaker. 1.323 from 1.3524 last week from 1.375 the previous week.

14. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds – Higher; 7.26% from 6.64% last week from 6.335% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

15. USD – Stronger. 79.63 from 78.07 last week from 76.90 the previous week. Vested thru HKD.

16. Properties – HK & China is weaker. However, Singapore is still quite strong.

17. Liquidity – Weaker. HKD 7.7966 from 7.7881 last week from 7.7778 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7605 – 7.7972.

Daily Turnover on HKSE also dropped to HK$51b from HK$59b last week from HK$ 60b last week.

18. Sentiment – Weaker. Can you feel the anger and frustrations on TV and in the blogsphere ?

19. Risk Management - How fast can you run, if Santa Claus does not materialize this year ?

20. Economies of the Developed Markets – Can the festive shopping save US, Europe & Japan ?

21. Hedge Funds – No news on any major redemption

22. Deleveraging – MF Global was leveraged at 100 to 1. Taunus ( of DB ) is leveraged at 80 to 1. What about the rest of the players ?

23. Interest Rates – Yields are rising on the European Bonds. When will they also spike up for the US and Japan ?

24. Headwinds – European Contagion, Weak DMs Economies, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices in HK & China, Tighter Credit Requirements

25. Tailwinds – Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Fair Equities Valuation, Cash – Sideline, Corporations & Bonds, Buybacks, Money Printing, Twist & QE

26. Market Direction – Weaker

It will probably be “opportunistic trading”, for the next two weeks.

Am not expecting any major movement .

Alternatively, it may be time to take a “trading break” to recharge before the expected Santa Claus rally.

And if Santa does not show up by around December 20th, I may have to sell some Equities by December 31st. Or I may have to buy some Puts to protect the portfolio.

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It’s not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

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Second Opinion – Please see the “Second Opinion” thread in the “Services for InvestIdeas Members” section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

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For similar articles and discussions, please do visit the forum:-http://investideas.net/forum/index.php

Winston’s Investment Blog: TOL as of Sept 18, 2011

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TOL as of Sep 18, 2011:-

Christmas Window Dressing?

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If you are an American or European Long Fund Manager, it’s that time of the year, where the closing price of your portfolio on Sept 30, would determine the amount of your Christmas Bonus, if any.

In view of this, what would you be doing ?

And in the past, you the Long Fund Manager, have been trimming your lousy positions and adding to your better performing positions, at this time of the year..

The week in review:-

1. Oil – Flat. US$88 from US$87 last week from US$87 the previous week.
Watching Petrochina. Hurricane season is now here.

2. Gold – Weaker. US$1813 from US$1855 last week from US$1882 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested

3. Silver – Weaker. US$40.66 from US$41.44 last week from US$43.21 the previous week. High: $48.58; Low: US$33.49;

4. Other Commodities – When will the high USD and global slowdown hurt Commodities?

5. Shanghai Equities – Weaker. 2482 from 2498 last week from 2528 the previous week. Support at 2350 then 2300 ? Will they actually decrease the RRR for the smaller banks ?

6. HK Equities- Weaker. 19455 from 19867 last week from 20213 the previous week. Resistance at 20050. Support at 18,600 then 17,250 ? No Equities trade, only Warrants.

7. Spore Equities- Weaker. 2789 from 2825 last week from 2843 the previous week. Sold Wilmar. Added to OUE.

8. US Equities- Stronger. 1216 from 1154 last week from 1174 the previous week. Support at 1120 ? Resistance at 1220 ?

9. Japan Equities – Stronger. 8864 from 8738 last week from 8951 the previous week. Range Low 8650. Time to buy ? And why are you buying ? Hated, Cheap, and now, uptrend ?

10. JPY – Stronger. 76.80 last week from 77.77 last week from 77.09 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.96 to 85.93. And when will the high JPY affect the Nikkei ?

11. Emerging Markets – Outflows again; http://www.epfr.com/

12. EUR – Stronger. EUR @ 1.3794 from 1.3651 last week from 1.4205 the previous week. Do you dare to short, when the Central Banks of the world, are trying to provide liquidity to Europe ?

13. USD – Weaker. 76.60 from 77.15 last week from 74.74 the previous week.

14. Properties – Have you been receiving a lot of SMS and cold calls lately, from your friendly neighbourhood real estate agent ? And a few “experts” are now calling for a correction in HK & China, within 12 to 18 months.

15. Liquidity – Stronger, towards the end of the week. HKD @ 7.7922 from 7.7962 last week from 7.7881 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7500 – 7.8113.

16. QE / Twist: I dont see the Feds doing anything for the time being, unless there’s a big drop in the market. They only have US$1.6t left and Operation Twist could easily cost US$1t.

17. Sentiment – Stronger, in view of the perceived support for Europe by the Central Banks of the world.

18. Economies of Developed Markets – How useful are those US weekly data ?

19. Risk Management - What have you missed in your analysis ?

20. Euribor / OIS Spread: The difference between the three- month euro interbank offered rate and overnight index swaps, was at 77.2 basis points on Sept 15, down from 79.6 Sept 14 and 84.6 on Sept. 12, which was the highest level since March 2009.

21. Window Dressing – 2 more weeks

22. Hedge Funds – GS just closed one of their Quant Funds. Arent the Quants supposed to be the Masters of the Universe ? :P

23. Market Direction – Stronger

How long can this rally go on ?

Is Europe a non-event now, especially with the Central banks of the world, providing them with the required Liquidity ?

Will you be using the rally to sell or will you be buying high and trying to sell higher ?

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It’s not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.

Please Note:-

Support the forum button – If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) – Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion – Please see the “Second Opinion” thread in the “Services for InvestIdeas Members” section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics – Do you know that there’s an “Active Topics” button? It’s located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

For similar articles and discussions, please do visit our forum:-http://investideas.net/forum/index.php

Trading and Investing Like a Business

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Trading and Investing Like a Business

Trading and investing are businesses. We need to treat them that way. If you were going to open a retail store or a medical practice or an oil exploration company you’d certainly have a business plan, wouldn’t you?

Emotion is the enemy of the trader and the investor. If that investor doesn’t have and abide by a plan, don’t you think the chances are high that his trading will be controlled by emotion?

Fear and greed take over and generally seem to lead to poor decision making. The undisciplined often enter at exactly the wrong place and exit just as badly. One of the ways to avoid the dangerously undisciplined approach is to have a plan.

Here are some of the elements of a business plan that I suggest to my students:

1. Will I trade full or part time?

2. How much risk money will I assign to the business? (I define risk money as money you can lose that will not affect your life or lifestyle. It does NOT include mortgage payment money, rent money, grocery money, car payments, insurance premiums, clothing money, or any other money you absolutely can’t afford to lose).

3. What will be the size of my trades? (Equal dollar amounts, or equal percentage amounts).

4. How will I make my trading decisions?

5. When will I make my trading decisions? (In the evening? Only on weekends? Once a month? It depends on what is going on in your own life).

6. How will I enter?

7. How and when will I exit?

8. What strategies will I employ?

9. What are my business hours? (In my view, this is very important. If we had a store, we would be open certain hours. If we assign business hours to ourselves, they should be treated as exactly that — business hours. It is not a time to play with the dog or have non-essential interruptions. The business needs to be treated like a business).

10. What is the maximum number of trades I’ll have in place at any one time?

11. What type of stops or alerts will I use?

12. What are my specific trading expectations?

13. What will I do to increase my trading knowledge? (Reading, seminars, paper trading, DVD’s, etc.).

The critical point is that you do develop a business plan of your own for your own trading and investing.

Completing the plan will give you a foundation for better trading. Abiding by the plan once you have completed it will put you in a rare class of trader and investor.

Source: MarketFN.com