Tag Archives: Investments

Winston’s Investment Blog: TOL as of Feb 19, 2012

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TOL as of February 19 2012:-

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Resistance

We are now approaching the 8th week of the rally.

And we are also reaching the top end of the resistance on the S&P, at 1364.

Would there be a break-out or would there be a reversal ?

How would everyone be reacting and more importantly, how would the machines be reacting ?

The week in review:-

1. Oil – Stronger. US$104 from US$99 last week from US$98 the previous week.

2. Gold – Flat. US$1723 from US$1717 last week from US$1727 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested

3. Silver – Flat. US$33.25 from US$33.51 last week from US$33.62 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.19; Resistance at US$38 ?

4. Cattle – Record. Cattle futures rose to an all-time high for the 10th time this year as rising demand for U.S. beef tightens supply.

5. Shanghai Equities – Flat. 2357 from 2352 last week from 2330 the previous week. Support at 2150 ? Resistance at 2400 ? RRR cut by 50bps yesterday.

6. HK Equities – Stronger. 21492 from 20784 last week from 20757 the previous week. Resistance at 22600 ? Support at 19000 ? No trade

7. Spore Equities – Stronger. 3001 from 2960 last week from 2918 the previous week. No Trade

8. US Equities – Stronger. 1361 from 1343 last week from 1344 the previous week. Support at 1205 ? At Resistance. Will there be a break-out ?

9. Japan Equities – Stronger. 9384 from 8947 last week from 8832 the previous week. Support at 8300 ? Resistance at 9965 ?

10. JPY – Weaker. 79.09 from 77.59 last year from 76.61 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 79.50.

11. Emerging Markets – Inflows; http://www.epfr.com 12. MYR to SGD – Weaker. 2.4221 from 2.4026 last week from 2.4246 the previous week. Buying MYR on dips. Am concern out the upcoming GE.

13. AUD – Stronger. 1.0721 from 1.0673 last week from 1.0761 the previous week. Vested

14. EUR – Flat. 1.3147 from 1.3187 last week from 1.3160 the previous week.

15. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds – Lower; 5.576 from 6.61% last week from 5.70% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

16. USD – Stronger. 79.38 from 79.11 last week from 78.97 the previous week. Vested thru HKD.

17. Properties – The fall may take longer than expected, as the developers still have a lot of holding power except the smaller ones in China

18. Liquidity – Stronger. HKD 7.7539 from 7.7564 last week from 7.7529 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7521 – 7.7972. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX at HK$66b from HK$75b last week from HK$68b the previous week. The second LTRO is scheduled for Feb. 29, with estimates that it may be two or three times the size of the first.

19. Sentiment – Bulls are still charging

20. Risk Management – Can you feel the fear in the air ?

21. Economies of the Developed Markets – Dont think there would be much changes over the next 9 months.

22. Hedge Funds – No major redemptions

23. Deleveraging – Will the downgrade of the Investment Banks, lead to some selling of existing positions ?

24. Interest Rates – Indonesia reduced interest rates by 25bps against market expectation

25. Headwinds – European Contagion, Weak Economies of the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices in HK & China, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran

26. Tailwinds – Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Fair Equities Valuation, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

27. Market Direction – Stronger I think we are close to the “show-time”.

Will it be a “horror show” or just an “action-movie” ?

How would this show end ?

And do you know where’s the emergency exit ?

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It’s not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

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The insiders are selling heavily

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Commentary: July was the last time insiders were equally as bearish

By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Corporate insiders are now selling their companies’ stock at a rate not seen since late last July.

That’s a scary parallel indeed, since that late-July spike in selling came just days before one of the more painful two-week periods in the stock market in years.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-insiders-are-selling-heavily-2012-02-09?

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Winston’s Investment Blog: TOL as of Feb 12, 2012

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TOL as of February 12 2012:-

The Bursting of the Balloon ?

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We are now touching the 7th week of the rally.

Is the balloon starting to burst now ?

Friday’s action in HK and the US is a bit of a concern.

The week in review:-

1. Oil – Stronger. US$99 from US$98 last week from US$100 the previous week.

2. Gold – Weaker. US$1717 from US$1727 last week from US$1732 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested

3. Silver – Flat. US$33.51 from US$33.62 last week from US$33.86 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.19; Resistance at US$38 ?

4. Commodities – Who is stronger ? “Long Term EM Demand” or “Short Term Speculation” ?

5. Shanghai Equities – Stronger. 2352 from 2330 last week from 2319 the previous week. Support at 2150 ? Resistance at 2400 ?

6. HK Equities- Flat. 20784 from 20757 last week from 20502 the previous week. Resistance at 20600 then 22600 ? Support at 19000 ? Sold 1/3 Rexlot

7. Spore Equities- Stronger. 2960 from 2918 last week from 2916 the previous week. Sold 1/3 Global Investments

8. US Equities- Flat. 1343 from 1344 last week from 1316 the previous week. Support at 1205 ? At Resistance of 1345 – 1365

9. Japan Equities – Stronger. 8947 from 8832 last week from 8841 the previous week. Support at 8300 ? Resistance at 9050 – 9100 ?

10. JPY – Weaker. 77.59 from 76.61 last week from 76.68 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 79.50. The currency traders are afraid of being whacked by the Japanese government :D

11. Emerging Markets – Inflows; http://www.epfr.com

12. MYR to SGD – Stronger. 2.4026 from 2.4246 last week from 2.4325 the previous week. Being buying some MYR regularly.

13. AUD – Weaker. 1.0673 from 1.0761 last week from 1.0659 the previous week. Vested

14. EUR – Stronger. 1.3187 from 1.316 last week from 1.3220 the previous week.

15. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds – Higher; 6.61% from 5.70% last week from 5.90% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

16. USD – Stronger. 79.11 from 78.97 last week from 78.79 the previous week. Vested thru HKD. Not good for Commodities.

17. Properties – HK residential site, sold recently at at less than surveyors’ estimates

18. Liquidity – Mixed. HKD 7.7564 from 7.7529 last week from 7.7561 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7521 – 7.7972.

Average Daily Turnover on HKEX, at HK$75b from HK$68b last week from HK$60b the previous week.

Bank of England pumped another GBP 80b into their QE program, for a total of GBP 325b

19. Sentiment – Cautious. Greece is the word, that you heard. It’s got groove it’s got meaning. Greece is the time, is the place is the motion;  Greece is the way we are feeling …
20. Risk Management – There is always something to worry about :?

21. Economies of the Developed Markets- High Oil prices would not be too good for the DMs.

22. Hedge Funds- No major redemption

23. Deleveraging -  Isn’t this a good time to do some deleveraging ?

24. Interest Rates - Can you go below zero percent ?

25. Headwinds – European Contagion, Weak Economies of the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices in HK & China, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran

26. Tailwinds – Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Fair Equities Valuation, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

27. Market Direction – Flat

Is the bursting of the balloon in process ?

Intuitively, I’m still expecting the formation of the “M” or “Triple Top”, so there could be an uptick or two, before the burst.

A strong catalyst still has not appeared yet. And the additional requirement for Greece is peanuts in the whole scheme of things.

Maybe if Iran halt their Oil export to Europe and drive prices to US$140, then the bursting of the ballooon will occur.

And I need to remind myself that whenever a balloon burst, it’s never a controlled situation.

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It’s not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button – If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) – Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion – Please see the “Second Opinion” thread in the “Services for InvestIdeas Members” section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics – Do you know that there’s an “Active Topics” button? It’s located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

For similar articles and discussions, please do visit the forum at:-http://investideas.net/forum/index.php