TOL as of February 28, 2010:-The Tug-of-War continuesThe tug-of-war between the Bulls and Bears is not only in Equities but also in Oil, Gold, USD Index etc.
Intuitively, the bears should win in the medium term. However, it's anybody's guess in the short term. Hence, I've stopped all short-term bets eg. stagging on IPOs, scalping, warrants etc.
Instead, I'm doing some Swing Trading whenever there's a strong catalyst. In addition, I have also initiated some Position Trading, in view of the coming NPC Meeting in early March.
The week in review:-1)
Oil - US$79.66 from US$79.81. The cold weather will be over soon. US$68 may be the entry point but some short term traders are expecting US83 first.
2)
Gold - US$1118 from US$1121 last week. Who will buy the IMF gold ?
3)
Other Commodities - correcting as well. Still waiting for the 50% retracement.
4)
Shanghai Equities - 3052 from 3018 last week. Strong Support @ 2750. I may add to my A50 ETF. Not expecting a sharp correction before the NPC meeting and I think that there's a lot of Cash on the sidelines.
5)
HK Equities - 20609 from 19894 last week. Low volume. Strong Support at 19500 and thereafter, 19000 . Positions in AMVIG, Fosun, GCL-Poly, Asia Cassava and initiated new positions on China High Speed Transmission, China Longyuan and A50 ETF.
6)
HK IPO - No new IPOs.
7)
Spore Equities - 2751 from 2757 last week. Support at 2625. Added to Capital Malls Asia and initiated a position on Jardine Matheson.
8)
US Equities - 1105 from 1109 last week. A lot of fire-power on the sidelines. Support at 1035 and then 995. Still sitting on my S&P Inverse ETF.
9)
Japan Equities - 10126 from 10124 last week. Support @ 9850, 9075.
10)
Emerging Markets - Small inflows.
11)
Properties ( HK, China & Singapore )- How's the volume recently ?
12)
Iran - When will sanctions starts ?
13)
US & Japanese Interest Rates - When will the sudden spike happen ?
..
14)
USD - 80.51 from 80.72 last week. Getting close to the 50% retracement of 82
15)
Risk Management - My portfolio is too concentrated on Green Energy, Commercial Properties, USD(HK$) and SGD.
16)
NPC Meeting - Am expecting good news for Pharmaceuticals, Green Energy, Rural Consumption, Agriculture, Xinjiang and Tibet. Buy on rumor, sell on news ?
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.
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