GCL-Poly Energy 3800

[winston]

Not vested.

DJ MARKET TALK:GCL-Poly Energy +12.6%; CIC Investment Adds Allure
November 19

1057 [Dow Jones] GCL-Poly Energy (3800.HK) +12.6% at HK$2.60 on resuming trade, as investors chasing shares higher on news China Investment Corp. will buy 20% stake, more than mitigating dilution impact via issuing 3.11 billion new shares at HK$1.79 each to China's sovereign fund, profit warning earlier in week.

CIC investment may be based on long-term view; prior to CIC announcement, Shenyin Wanguo Research starts stock at Buy, tips GCL-Poly has become polysilicon cost leader in China with total cost of USD38/kg in 2Q; forecasts net profit to surge by 420.3% in 2010 to CNY2.56 billion, 24.2% in 2011 to CNY3.18 billion.

Adds, current P/E of 8.1X FY10, 6.6X FY11 (pre-dilution) at "substantial discount" vs global peers' 18X FY10 P/E; pegs 6-month target price at HK$3.70

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[winston]

Not vested

DJ MARKET TALK: Market Overlooking Risks On GCL-Poly -MS
November 2


1543 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Morgan Stanley assumes coverage of GCL-Poly Energy (3800.HK) at Equalweight with HK$2.00 target price. Says company likely to enter global top-five in terms of scale of polysilicon production next year, but is also a global top-10 cash cost producer of polysilicon and top-five total cost producer of polysilicon.

"In a globally competitive oversupplied market, this is a respectable but not a compelling position. We find the current P/E valuation of 19.7X and P/B valuation of 3.7X full."
Adds, consensus view optimistic, factoring in "optimistic" FY10 polysilicon average selling price of $60 or more per kg, resulting in high FY10 margin forecast. Adds, consensus also overlooking risk GCL may not be able to sell all its FY10 polysilicon production, and risk of capital raising due to high leverage, negative FY09-10 free cash flow.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[winston]

Not vested.

DJ MARKET TALK: Buy GCL-Poly At HK$2.35, HK$2.70 Target - Phillip

1548 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Phillip Securities suggests buy-in price for GCL-Poly Energy (3800.HK) at HK$2.35, target at HK$2.70, with easing concern on overproduction capacity of poly-silicon, as profit of photovoltaic energy industry would be greatly improved with accommodative policy for renewable energy and increased global awareness toward low-carbon clean energy.

House doesn't provide a rating in the note. Stock down 0.4% at HK$2.39.


Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[winston]

Not vested.

DJ MARKET TALK: GCL-Poly +0.9%; Konca Buy Price Reasonable-Yuanta

1141 [Dow Jones] GCL-Poly Energy (3800.HK) +0.9% at HK$2.37, after news it has agreed to buy 70.19% of solar-cell parts maker for total consideration of CNY854.1 million.

Yuanta Securities notes acquisition valued at US$0.6/watt, 20% higher vs GCL's own poly plant capex of US$0.5/watt. "The price GCL paid is reasonable as Konca's tech know-how, customer base should well justify the 20% premium over pure capex."

Adds, event should be viewed as a positive sign for GCL's push to full downstream vertical integration. But adds, GCL's aggressive push to wafer business will bring more competition to the wafer sector, which is already at thin margin.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[winston]

Not vested.

DJ MARKET TALK: UBS Starts GCL Poly Energy At Buy, HK$2.75 Target

1153 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS starts GCL Poly Energy (3800.HK) at Buy with target price of HK$2.75. Says with its large scale, competitive cost structure and strong customer profile, house believes GCL will survive current oversupply situation and be well positioned to capture strong secular growth of the solar industry.

Tips revenue growth of 83% for 2010, 26% for 2011 because of capacity expansion to 21,000MT by end-2010. Expects GCL's production cost will continue to improve to offset price erosion.

House forecasts EPS growth of 232% in 2010, 51% in 2011. "A solid balance sheet and strong cash flow should enable GCL to survive market volatility and expand aggressively when market conditions improve," says house. It last +2.1% at HK$1.92.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[winston]

Vested.

*DJ GCL-Poly Energy Target Raised To HK$2.40 From HK$2.20 By HSBC

Feb 5, 2010

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[winston]

Vested.

AMERICAN DEPOSITARY RECEIPT FACILITY
January 8, 2010

The Board wishes to announce that the Company has established an American Depositary Receipt facility, which has become effective on 4 January 2010.

The board of the directors (the “Board”) of GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited (the “Company”) wishes to inform the shareholders of the Company and investors that the Company has established a sponsored, unlisted American Depositary Receipt (“ADR”) facility, which has become effective on 4 January 2010.

An ADR is a negotiable receipt, resembling a stock certificate, that is issued by a United States (“U.S.”) depositary bank appointed by the Company to evidence one or more American Depositary Shares (“ADSs”), each of which represents twenty (20) ordinary shares of the Company.

In the form of facility adopted by the Company, the ADRs will be issued against ordinary shares trading on the Main Board of The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited that have been deposited with a custodian bank under the facility. The ADRs will be traded in the U.S. over-the-counter market at a later date after the depositary has opened the facility for trading.

The registration statement includes the form of deposit agreement (the “Deposit Agreement”) entered into by and among JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as the depositary, the Company and the holders of ADRs and does not include information about the Company or its business which is not publicly available in Hong Kong.

The number of ADSs registered by the Company under the ADR facility is 50,000,000. The establishment of the ADR facility by the Company is not a new offering of shares and the ADRs are based on the shares of the Company currently in issue. Therefore, the Company receives no proceed from the establishment of the ADR facility.

By order of the Board
GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited
Zhu Gong Shan
Chairman

[lithium]

Winston, do you think this company can pay it's bank borrowings?

[winston]

Ha Ha .. Ah Gong cant pay their bank borrowings ? Ah Gong's price at 1.79.

[winston]

Vested. From Phillips:-


Risk
The price of polysilicon falls down out of expectation;
Thin film solar cells squeeze the room of polysilicon largely because of the cost advantage;
The preferential tax will be cut half in 2010 for Jiangsu Zhongneng( its tax rate will be adjusted upwards to 12.5%).


Share price after dipping becomes attractive

Generally speaking, the increased capacity will make the PV business contribute mainly to GCL-POLY`s revenues, although the polysilicon has kept declining. In 2009, the huge goodwill impairment by the acquisition bring about a huge loss for the Company, its net loss may be as high as RMB5.6 billion. However, its main business will contribute profit in 2010, we expect the revenue/net profit of the Company will be RMB11.4/2 billion. The EPS will be RMB 0.43.

Regarding valuation, the Company`s new energy business will grow significantly. Referring to its international peers, the average leading P/E for electric enterprises listed in HK is over 10X, and that for international polysilicon and wafer manufacturer is mainly between 15X and 20X. By the sub-segment valuation, we conservatively give its old electric and new energy businesses 10X and 15X 2010 EPS, and the 12-month TP will be HK$2.36. We reiterate it buy rating.

GCL-POLY`s share price has maintained at above HK$1.8 after dipping for over half a year, which is also close to the subscription price of HK$1.79 by China Investment Corporation. Technically speaking, the price is around the 61.8% golden point position after the booming cycle since March 2009. We think there is little possibility of further slide, the share price may be in a bottomed stage.