Winston's Investment Ideas 01 (Nov 08 - Apr 10)

[winston]

Dear poland, cif5000, mojo, kenny, MM, San, lithium, MW & peter, eauyong & OE2008,

Thanks for your kind wishes !

cif5000 - I was actually at an English bookstore this afternoon. Unfortunately, they dont have that book. I did google it but would need some time to digest the info. Thxs !

mojo - Thanks for the kind article. Again, I needed some time to digest it. Thanks !

Thanks all and take care,
Winston

[LenaHuat]

Hi Winston

A very happy BELATED birthday. I wish I had logged in over the weekend.

Here's a great song for you. Look out for the clip at 3:13

Ambassadors of Harmony - Barbershop Chorus Champion

[Aspellian]

Hi Winston Tua Towkay,

A very HAPPY BIRTHDAY to you ! (belated now or be-early for the next)


I'm sure by seeking and praying to GOD (creator etc), your spiritual wish is already granted.

Put aside one's pride, ego, intellect, skeptiscm, ability to rationalise, fears and insecurity... just believe with faith and sincerity, be as innocent as a child (which is a real and interesting challenge to adults' minds) - and listen to that calming presence of the inner voice - a new life chapter simply appears before you. Keep things simple.

[winston]

TOL as of October 10, 2009:-

1) Commodities - Will not be chasing any Commodity stocks now

2) Shanghai - Rebounded 9% from bottom. Will not chase the A50 2823. Economic Data for September, would be released soon.

3) HK Equities - Positions in Zhongwang, AMVIG, China Mobile and BBMG. Need to be a bit careful, as FPK mentioned recently, that the HK market is now being dominated by the BBs.

4) HK IPO - Applied for Shenguan Holdings

5) Spore Equities - Watching the laggards and some fallen angels

6) US Equities - Expecting it to be range-bound with a negative bias. Would earnings be coming in better-than-expected again ?

7) Swine Flu - Winter is on it's way

8) Emerging Markets - No news about any huge redemption

9) Iran - Looks like there will not be any sanction for the time being.

10) Hedge Funds - Oct 15 deadline for redemptions for Jan 1, 2010

11) US Interest Rates - What will cause an unexpected spike upwards ?

12) USD - What will cause an unexpected spike upwards ?

13) AUD - Getting strong. Will sit on my existing AUD fixed deposits for the time being

My view of things have not really changed over the past few weeks. I still think that:-
1) the US Economy will be weak for the next two years
2) this is not the time to take aggresive positions
3) it's better to invest in the bigger companies (with strong fundamentals and min debt)
4) it's better to have a bigger position in Cash
5) it's better to take any reasonable profits, as it's a range-bound market
6) it's better to focus on "Return OF Capital" than "Return ON Capital"

I also think that it's better to be patient and to wait for the next opportunity, to present itself. I can feel a big explosion coming but I dont know how big is that explosion nor where it is going to come from.

All I know is that everything has gone up a bit too high and too fast ie Equities, Commodities and Properties. And when something has gone up a bit too high and too fast, it does not take much to spark a stampede ...

The above is to help me crystalize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please do use the above at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments ...

[Poles]

hi Winston,
what makes you want to watch S'pore stocks now?
p/s: are you watching or already in the game?

[winston]

Hi poland,

I have been always watching Singapore stocks. It's just that I have never been able to find something that I really considered a Conviction Buy. And since HK has been doing much better, I have been focussing my attention there...

Take care,
Winston

[winston]

TOL as of October 24, 2009:-

1) Commodities - Will not be chasing any Commodity stocks now. I think the Chinese are moderating their stock-piling and I'm also afraid of a short-squeeze on the USD.

2) Shanghai - Rebounded from bottom. Will not chase the A50 2823 in HK. Something similar to the A50, will be launched on the SGX very soon.

3) HK Equities - Have been trading Zhongwang, AMVIG and BBMG.

4) HK IPO - Shenghuan: > 30% return . Already applied for Comtec Solar and Yu Zhou. Have not decided on Excellence, Trinity, Ming Fa and Evergrande.

5) Spore Equities - Watching the laggards and some fallen angels. Reminds me of the period after the AFC, where I was out of the market for > two years..

6) US Equities - Expecting it to be range-bound between 8000 to 10,000. People are now also looking at the Top-Line, in addition to the Bottom-line, as profits from cost-cutting is not sustainable. I think it will be trendless until late Dec, where Window-Dressing activities may surface again. Wall Street bonuses have now been finalized so there's no more incentive to trade or to take additional risk.

7) Swine Flu - Winter is on it's way in the Northern Hemisphere

8) Emerging Markets - No news about any huge redemption. Will not be chasing the Emerging Markets now. If the Americans, Europeans and Japanese are not consuming, the Brazillians, Russians, Indians, Indonesians and Chinese, will not be able to replace them.

9) Iran - Looks like there will not be any sanction for the time being. The Russians came out with a face-saving proposal yesterday.

10) Hedge Funds - No news about any major redemptions for Jan 1, 2010. I dont think the winding up of the Galleon Funds, will have much impact on the other Hedge Funds. The next deadline for redemption is Feb 15, 2010 for Apr 1, 2010.

11) US Interest Rates - What will cause an unexpected spike upwards ? Will the Chinese continue to buy a piece of paper that will pay very low interest ? ( I think the Chinese will continue to use their USD to buy physical assets eg. the IMF Gold, commodity companies, physical commodities, physical real estate etc. ).

12)USD - What will cause an unexpected short squeeze ? Crash in the Yen ? Crash in Eastern Europe ? Crash in Emerging Markets ?

13) Signature - I have changed my signature to:-
a) Look at each stock you own and ask yourself if you'd rather see it rise in price so you can sell... or fall in price so you can buy more.
b) If you'd rather see it rise in price, you should consider trimming the position or selling it out entirely.

14) Complacency - I'm feeling very uncomfortable as there's a feeling of complacency out there. Maybe the complacency is from the fact that buying on dips have worked over the past 7 months. Maybe the complacency is arising from the fact that there's about US$3.5t on the sidelines, which could support any crash. However, at the peak of the crash, money on the sidelines did ballooned to about US$8.8t.

15) Cash - I've started to increase my cash position. It's now at 88%. I would continue to sit on Cash and utilize it to stag on any "fairly-priced" HK IPO. I may also trade a stock if there's a good story or catalyst. However, I think the risk vs reward now, does not justify me sitting on a big position in Equities over an extended period of time. I think it's more of a "hit & run" situation.

16) Short-Selling & Buying Puts - I'll wait for a "M" to form before I buy any puts or initiate any short-selling activity. "Markets can be irrational longer than I can be solvent".

The above is to help me crystalize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please do use the above at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments ...

[winston]

TOL as of November 1, 2009:-

1) Commodities - What will cause a sharp correction on Commodities ?

2) Shanghai - What will cause a sharp correction on Shanghai ?

3) HK Equities - Positions in Zhongwang, AMVIG, BBMG, China Mobile & Rexlot.

4) HK IPO - Breakeven on Comtec Solar. Yu Zhou to be listed tomorrow. Applied for Excellence, Trinity, Evergrande and Greens. Did not apply for Ming Fa.

5) Spore Equities - Researched Hsu Fu Chi after Barings bought a stake in them.

6) US Equities - Expecting it to be range-bound between 8000 to 10,000. Not expecting a crash. Strong catalyst for a steep drop is still not present.

7) Properties - HK, China and Singapore: Are we close to the peak ?

8) Swine Flu - Winter is on it's way in the Northern Hemisphere

9) Emerging Markets - What would trigger an outflow ?

10) Iran - Even if there's a sanction, the impact would be minimal. There are many porous areas, where things can be smuggled into Iran.

11) Hedge Funds - Next deadline for redemption is Feb 15, 2010 for Apr 1, 2010.

12) US Interest Rates - What will cause an unexpected spike upwards ?

13) USD - USD is moving upwards on no specific news. What will cause the shorts to be squeezed tightly ? Crash in the Yen ? Crash in Eastern Europe ?

14) Signature - I have changed my signature to:-
Always have a good reason when you buy and sell

15) Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Identifying some candidates to short. When you see me posting a lot of articles on a certain stock, it does not necessarily mean that I intend to go long on the stock

16) Liquid Portfolio: Equities 15%; Inverse ETF 1%; Gold Coins 4%; Cash 80%
a) The Cash are in Sin$, HK$, US$, AUD, EUR, CDN
b) To make it simple, I did not include stuff like Real Estate, Jewellery, Insurance Policies, Watches etc.

The above is to help me crystalize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please do use the above at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments ...

[millionairemind]

Just some tots on your tots.. lazy Sunday morning.. going to fish shop soon with a friend

TOL as of October 24, 2009:-

1) Commodities - Will not be chasing any Commodity stocks now. I think the Chinese are moderating their stock-piling and I'm also afraid of a short-squeeze on the USD.

MM: When market crashS or starts going down big time, USD will rally as investors seeks safe haven. This will cause commodities to start tumbling... Gold will go down too. Call it conspiracy theory.. but I think they are prepping for a downward violent swing.. so that the BIG INVESTMENT BANKS with major trading arms can start making money this quarter as the upside is now limited. The PPIP plan has fallen apart.. the PPT wants the big firms to earn their way to financial health again.


2) Shanghai - Rebounded from bottom. Will not chase the A50 2823 in HK. Something similar to the A50, will be launched on the SGX very soon.

MM: If they tightened the bank loans... BJ knows about the stimulus money flooding into the stock market and property market.. they will do something about it...


7) Swine Flu - Winter is on it's way in the Northern Hemisphere

MM: Seems to be getting more and more serious in the US.


12)USD - What will cause an unexpected short squeeze ? Crash in the Yen ? Crash in Eastern Europe ? Crash in Emerging Markets ?

MM: Crash in global stock market will cause USD to strengthen.


14) Complacency - I'm feeling very uncomfortable as there's a feeling of complacency out there. Maybe the complacency is from the fact that buying on dips have worked over the past 7 months. Maybe the complacency is arising from the fact that there's about US$3.5t on the sidelines, which could support any crash. However, at the peak of the crash, money on the sidelines did ballooned to about US$8.8t.

MM: Buying on dips keep working till it doesn't ...

[Helium]

Winston must be an avid watch collector ... ... Rolexs?