Meat - Hog, Cattle, Poultry etc.

[LenaHuat]

I'm sure you never ever thought you would go this far . Congratulations

[b0rderc0llie]

Thanks... no cattle and poultry yet though... see if can expand my farm in the future

[kennynah]

Am long 1 contract of Lean Hog Dec 2009 (LHZ9). Become a farmer liao ...

congrats...it's up a little today... again...i am curious on margin requirements and delta...thanks.

[b0rderc0llie]

Initial margin $1,418.00, maintenance margin $1,050.00.

Each contract size is 40,000 lbs. Each $1 movement in Lean Hog will mean a $400 movement in each contract.

[kennynah]

well...looks like you've profited handsomely tonight

thanks for the info...

[winston]

Top Doug Casey investment that has nothing to do with gold, stocks, or real estate... From Doug Casey in Conversations with Casey:

Doug, we talk a lot about metals and energy, but you’ve also made money in agriculture, as have our subscribers who got in early on corn and potash. In the February 2008 issue of the International Speculator, you made the case for speculating on rising cattle prices. Would you explain your rationale for that and give us an update?

Doug: Sure. There is such a thing as a cattle cycle, and right now, all over the world, cattle are in liquidation. Farmers and ranchers just can’t make any money on cattle. Nobody has made any money on cattle in North America or Europe for years, and it’s especially serious now. So worldwide, cattle herds are being slaughtered, and that’s depressing the prices.

The interesting thing is that even as prices are being depressed by all the selling, counter-intuitively, cattle herds are collapsing. That means the number of cattle and the price of cattle are going down at the same time. That obviously can’t go on forever; at some point, the relative number of cattle is going to be quite small, and prices are going to explode upwards.

Why? Because people in China, the rest of the Orient, and across the developing world are going to want more beef -- in addition to the traditional consumers. And the numbers of cattle are going to be very low.

I think that cattle is an excellent place to be.

[winston]

Doug Casey: How I'm playing this commodity set to explode in price
From Conversations With Casey:

[To capitalize on a bull market in cattle,] I’m buying land in northwest Argentina, which to me is the most attractive part of that country – and the country itself is very attractive indeed.

We’ve bought a number of large, dormant farms where we clear the land, fence it, put in wells, and plant in grasses the cows like. We bought Braford females – heifers – and they calf every year. We now have about fifteen hundred cows. Every year we get about twelve hundred new babies, and then the babies have babies. We sell the male calves for current income, to finance the clearing and fencing of more land and putting in more wells. And we let the heifers grow and reproduce. It’s a form of compound interest. Plus, the land is worth considerably more after we improve it -- a big bonus.

And since our cattle are all grass-fed, and we own the land for cash, and the Gauchos earn roughly two hundred and fifty dollars a month, we don’t have much in the way of costs.

I’m a big fan of grass-fed beef. Most cattle spend the best part of their adult lives in feed lots. They’re packed chock-a-block next to each other (moving burns calories and takes off weight). They’re fed things cows don’t naturally eat. And they’re pumped full of growth hormones and antibiotics. The end product is okay for a mass market that wants cheap beef, but it isn’t what I want.

… I picked Argentina because out of the hundred and seventy-five countries I’ve been to, the fact of the matter is: I just like Argentina more than any other place I can think of.

[winston]

Forget gold... One of America's favorite commodities is headed to all-time highs
The U.S. cattle herd probably shrunk to the smallest size since 1958, and the drop in beef supplies may boost prices to a record, analysts said.

Ranchers held 92.211 million head of cattle as of Jan. 1, down 1.6 percent from a year ago, according to the average estimate of seven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

That would be the smallest herd in 53 years, said Ron Plain, a livestock economist at the University of Missouri in Columbia. The government releases its semiannual report on the cattle herd at 3 p.m. today in Washington.

"Cattle producers are being squeezed by tough finances and a soft economy," Plain said. "The supply is just shrinking. Beef prices are likely to be record high in 2011, and it should be a record that will last."

Wholesale choice beef has jumped 23 percent in the past year to $1.731 a pound, and costlier meat may spur restaurants and grocery stores to pass along costs to consumers. The highest price was $2.0118 on Oct. 16, 2003, according to Bloomberg data from the government dating back to 2001. Shoppers may pay as much as 3.5 percent more for beef this year, the government has forecast.

McDonald's Corp. said this week that the company's U.S. commodity costs may rise as much as 2.5 percent this year, including a "substantial increase" in beef. Earlier this month, Texas Roadhouse Inc. said it plans to boost menu prices.

'Multiyear Process'

Cattle ranchers in the southern Plains made an estimated $52 per cow last year, following losses of about $32 in 2009, said Jim Robb, the director of the Livestock Marketing Information Center, a researcher funded by the industry and government.

Producers aren't ready to expand because most of the profit wasn't made until the fourth quarter, he said.

"It's a multiyear process," Robb said in a telephone interview from Denver. "Just one year's return in the cattle business does not necessarily lay the foundation to increase the number of breeding animals."

Calves have nine-month gestation periods and take 20 months to reach slaughter weight, according to Plain of the University of Missouri.

U.S. beef production may be 26 billion pounds (11.8 million metric tons) this year and drop to 25.2 billion pounds in 2012, Robb said. Both would be the smallest since 2005, he said.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts output at 25.66 billion pounds this year. Consumer beef prices will be the highest ever this year and probably will climb further in 2012, Robb said.

Surging prices for corn, the main ingredient in cattle feed, discouraged livestock producers from expanding. The grain has jumped 82 percent in the past year.

Retail prices for ground beef were 8.8 percent more expensive in December than a year ago, government data show. The cost of meat this year will rise faster than total food inflation, the USDA projects.


Source: Bloomberg

[winston]

When Pigs Fly!

Although Lean Hog futures prices are at record highs, the potential increase in export business, primarily to South Korea, is expected to be completed in the first half of the year.

Some traders looking for Hog prices to stay robust in early 2011 may wish to consider the purchase of a bull spread in Lean Hog futures.

http://www.dailymarkets.com/economy/201 ... -pigs-fly/

[winston]

DJ UPDATE: China To Release Pork From Reserves As Prices Soar

-- China to release pork reserves amid rising prices
-- China plans to build up reserves gradually over longer term
-- Current stock levels 200,000 tons, far below 50-million-ton consumption level
-- Pork reserve measures add to state efforts to grow hog population

BEIJING (Dow Jones)--Aiming to blunt a sharp rise in pork prices, China's Ministry of Commerce said Friday that it will release some pork reserves onto the market.

It also plans to boost stocks from current levels around 200,000 metric tons at a gradual pace, likely so that releases of pork from its reserves will have a greater impact on price levels in future.

At the current level, China's pork reserves, set up four years ago, are equivalent to a tiny fraction--about 0.4%--of annual pork consumption of 50 million tons, underscoring the difficulties the government faces in using such stockpiles to manage demand.

The moves come after pork prices reached record levels last month, rising 57% from a year earlier and far outpacing a rise in the country's consumer price index of 6.4%, itself the quickest pace of increase in more than three years.


Source: Dow Jones Newswire