AAR & TOL 03 (Aug 09 - Dec 13)

[helios]

Yo. Winston.

Thank you for your kind thoughts.

What do i meant as 'next skillset'? I am thinking of (i) diversification/ opportunity to own some physical businesses, e.g. local SMEs or (ii) just simply to test my insights/ acumen in picking up pharmaceutical/ biotech stocks ... ...

[winston]

I am thinking of (i) diversification/ opportunity to own some physical businesses, e.g. local SMEs or
(ii) just simply to test my insights/ acumen in picking up pharmaceutical/ biotech stocks ... ...

Hi San,

1) I have looked at various businesses over the past 25 years but nothing materialized. Maybe you have better liuck than me.

2) Peter Lynch did say that you should only invest in things that you know. With your background, you would be miles ahead of the Analysts, in the Healthcare, Pharma and Biotech sector ...

Take care,
Winston

[helios]

What shall we do during Sept-Oct period? Is this going to be the lull period?

Do you remember we'd the same uncertainty [experience] last year 2008?

Link: viewtopic.php?f=66&t=633&start=180

[winston]

What shall we do during Sept-Oct period? Is this going to be the lull period? Do you remember we'd the same uncertainty [experience] last year 2008?

Ha Ha .. if you are prepared to sit out for 3 years, then you could be pleasantly surprized with some trading opportunities later.

[Aspellian]

Ha Ha ... maybe I can open a fish shop. I can look at the fishes all day

I can join you as a partner and also sit there whole day staring at fishes with laptops to do occasional trades! hahahha!!

[helios]

I can join you as a partner and also sit there whole day staring at fishes with laptops to do occasional trades!

Yo. Aspellian bro gonna to sit around for 3 years? ... ... what a way ...

[winston]

TOL:-

SSE is now down > 20%. Need to remind myself to be patient and to wait for it to drop further. It has been on a tear since March.

This has been only a 3 week drop with a 8% rise in between. Markets dont go down and then up immediately after confidence has been destroyed.

There's still no panic. There's also no anger yet ie. furnitures being destroyed at the stock-brokers etc. Those who bought on dips are just only starting to regret..

[kennynah]

i was just reflecting a moment ago....

given that some of us believe the extended rally may come to an abrupt and rude stop, followed by the potential disastrous downslide...it is all a question of timing...

classically, rallies move in "phases"...there are usually 3 distinct upward rallies...corresponding to "early institutional investment buying", "laggard institutional and astute retail buyings" and the final phase of "retail sucker buyings"....

each phase representing roughly about the same gains...

as i stare at SPX....i am indeed seeing the 2nd phase in progress...i clearly cannot yet identify the 3rd phase having begun...

to mark the end of phase 2, one must see a meaningful correction but not below phase 1's high, which in this case is at about 950....

so..in my mind.... the correction that some of us are anticipating now, could well only be a pause in this last 6 month's rally, only to see market swing upwards again, for one final time; ie. the 3rd and last phase...

i am just registering that the art of this...is in the timing of an opinion...not just anticipation of the technical up or down ... in this regard, the 1st phase lasted some 3 months...the 2nd phase in progess is into the 2nd month... and if we believe that the span of time is rather similar, then we might just have to wait for almost another 1 month from henceforth (well in Sept09), before we see the exhausion of phase 2....

what do you guys think?

[winston]

The retail players were burnt two years ago and have been buying Mutual Funds or ETFs instead ..

So there's only two phase now, early Insitutional and Late Institutional. And we are at the end of Phase 2

Having said that, there seems to be alot of cash on the sidelines. If there's a steep drop, those cash will be motivated to come into the market very quickly. If not, they would also be quite happy sitting on the sidelines ..

I dont see a huge crash, maybe a drip downwards over an extended period, say two years ...

Stock-picking skills would be more valuable than Market Direction skills in this scenario ..

[kennynah]

So there's only two phase now, early Insitutional and Late Institutional. And we are at the end of Phase 2

it appears to me that phase 2...has a possible extension to ~1070 region for spx...

Stock-picking skills would be more valuable than Market Direction skills in this scenario ..

i agree that stock picking skills is important...but it always has been important.... i am unable to agree that getting the general market direction is unimportant, since usually, not many individual stocks will move against and defy the general market direction....

..So there's only two phase now, early Insitutional and Late Institutional. And we are at the end of Phase 2

noted...i shall keep this in mind... to see if indeed, this time around, the classic chart pattern does not repeat...