Winston's Investment Ideas 01 (Nov 08 - Apr 10)

[winston]

TOL:-

1) Oil @ US$69.50: Strong resistance. Why would one buy Oil at this price, in view of rising inventories etc ?

2) Gold @ US$954: Resistance at US$965; Jewellers are not buying. Why would one buy gold at this price ?

3) Commodity ETFs. Gone up too much, too fast. I will wait for the correction before buying some shares in the Commodity companies

4) China: Consumers, Fast Food, Internet, Infrastructure, Green Energy - Too expensive. The dear can get dearer though ..

5) Shanghai & HK - The 8% drop in the SSE was a wake-up call that markets dont go up in a straight line. Confidence is broken and it will take some time before people forget the fall. If there's a "M" forming, it will be fast & furious on the downside. Not vested in any HK stocks.
Chinese companies will be reporting end August.

6) HK IPO - Stagged on BBMG. Cost HK$6.38. High on first day HK$10.50; Bring on the IPOs !

7) Spore - Still no good investment ideas. Rumors of General Election. GLCs in play ? Weren't they not in play for a few months already ?

8) US Equities - What's going to happen after earnings season? Expecting the US economy to be weak for a few years..

9) Swine Flu - Looks like it's not currently a threat. Anyway, Subprime was also not a big threat when HSBC first reported it.

10) US Dollar - What is the alternative? Expecting the USD to depreciate against the Commodity Currencies, RMB over the next few years

11) Taiwan, Korea, Vietnam, Russia & India - Will have to wait for a better entry point

12) Hedge Fund - Aug 15 Deadline for Oct 1 Redemption

The above is to help me crystalize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use the info above at your own risk. Also, please do feel free to comment. I would like to also hear your kind thoughts and comments..

[kennynah]

2) Gold @ US$954: Resistance at US$965; Jewellers are not buying. Why would one buy gold at this price ?

may i know how you arrived at this resistance price level? tx...

[winston]

Hi K,

I had that figure on my watchlist for a long time. Dont know where I got it from.

Maybe it was from an article or a TA expert on TV. Tried to search for the article but couldn't find it so maybe it's from a TA expert on TV.

Take care,
Winston

[Aspellian]

TOL:-

1) Oil @ US$69.50: Strong resistance. Why would one buy Oil at this price, in view of rising inventories etc ?

2) Gold @ US$954: Resistance at US$965; Jewellers are not buying. Why would one buy gold at this price ?

10) US Dollar - What is the alternative? Expecting the USD to depreciate against the Commodity Currencies, RMB over the next few years

a contributing factor to oil price dramatic rise last year (other than speculative hot $), was the depreciation of USD. likely scenario to happen again.

USD strengthen early of this year as funds pull out from europe and asia and converted back to USD (prob to meet fund redemptions). now US funds are pouring $ into asia again - likely to see foreign currencies strengthen and USD weaken - oil price & commodities may increase because of this.

[winston]

TOL as of Aug 16, 2009:-

1) Commodities. I think China has supposedly slowed down it's purchases. I will wait for the correction before buying some shares in the Commodity companies

2) Shanghai & HK - I think there's a "M" forming on the SSE. It's also reporting season for the Chinese companies. Will the correction on the SSE escalate into something bigger and affect the other countries ?

3) HK IPO - Did not apply for Sundart. Not comfortable with the prospect of the company as well as what's happening on the SSE

4) Spore Equities- Still no good investment ideas

5) US Equities - Expecting the US economy to be weak for a few years but there seems to be a lot of liquidity floating around ..

6) Swine Flu - Looks like it's not currently a threat. Winter will be here in a few months ..

7) Hedge Fund - Aug 15 Deadline for Oct 1 Redemption. Have not seen any articles highlightning any major redemptions..

8) Mutual Funds - Mid to End September Window Dressing for 3Q 2009

The above is to help me crystalize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use the info above at your own risk. Also, please do feel free to comment. I would like to also hear your kind thoughts and comments..

[kennynah]

you are one consistently hardworking trader... it is no wonder you are able to sustain in this business for so long...

in my books, you are a champ

[winston]

Ha Ha ... you are always kind with your words ...

[kennynah]

Ha Ha ... you are always kind with your words ...

but only selectively...

in fact, you will notice that i can be rather caustic with my remarks....much like concentrated hydrochloric acid...it burns....mwahahahahaha....again...only selectively...

[winston]

TOL as of Aug 23, 2009:-

1) Oil - Stronger than expected. I will wait for a better entry point on CNOOC. However, I'm also a bit uncomfortable with one of their recent acquisition that may burnt off a lot of their cash.

2) Commodities - China has slowed down it's purchases. Will wait for the correction.

3) Shanghai & HK - The sentiment on the SSE is very weak. The invinsible hands may try to support things but the people will use any opportunity to sell. It's also reporting season for the Chinese companies. Will SSE affect the other countries? Not vested in any HK stocks anymore

4) HK IPO - Weak debut for Sundart. Did not apply. No current IPO on the horizon.

5) Spore Equities- Still no good investment ideas

6) US Equities - Expecting the US economy to be weak for a few years but there seems to be a lot of liquidity floating around. Would the liquidity remain in the stock-markets or would they flow somewhere else ? There was an article that mentioned that the big funds are reducing their exposure to US equities. Maybe it will flow to Distressed Assets? Technology? Corporate Bonds? Residential Properties? Commercial Properties?

7) Swine Flu - The daily numbers are getting worst and winter will be here in a few months. Am worried.

8) Mutual Funds - Mid to End September Window Dressing for 3Q 2009

9) Emerging Markets - there seems to be some outflow. Will it continue to be a trickle or will it result in a flood ?

The above is to help me crystalize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use the info above at your own risk. Also, please do feel free to comment. I would like to also hear your kind thoughts and comments..

[winston]

TOL as of Sept 06, 2009:-

1) Oil - Expecting Oil to go lower. I will wait for a better entry point on CNOOC, maybe closer to HK$9. However, I'm also worried that they may have burnt off a lot of cash on their recent acquisitions. There was also a bearish analyst on CNBC recently, that said that CNOOC has a fair price of only HK$5

2) Gold - Getting close to US$1000. Why are people buying physical gold ? Zhaojin and Zijin (50% Copper) has gone up > 12% in the last few days. Will not chase.

3) Commodities - China has slowed down it's purchases. Will wait for the correction.

4) Shanghai & HK - I think the correction on the SSE was a bit over done. I have initiated positions on the A50 China Tracker, BBMG, Ajisen and China Mobile.

5) China Economic News - Overcapacity in the following Industries: Steel, Cement, Wind Power, Coal,Chemical, Flat Glass and Polycrystal Silicon

6) Macau - this is back on my radar after they reported an increase in gambling revenue eventhough there's still a restriction on Chinese Visas. Still cant find any good counters at at a fair price.

7) Japan - With a new government, where are the investment opportunities ?

8) HK IPO - Will probably stag on SinoPharm and Metallurgical Corp of China.

9) Spore Equities - Still no good investment ideas. I would also be careful about chasing some of the S-Chips just because they say that they want to list in HK. Look at their recent results and see whether they merit investment at the Current Price and Fundamentals. People are not stupid. If there's a great company, people will buy them whether they list in SGX, HK, SSE or the US. And why did they list in SGX in the first place and not HKSE ?

10) US Equities - Expecting the US economy to be weak for at least two years but there seems to be a lot of liquidity around. Am not expecting a big drop or a big rise either.

11) Swine Flu - Winter will be here in a few months. Am worried.

12) Mutual Funds - End Sept Window Dressing for 3Q 2009. Will this time be different ?

13) Emerging Markets - Watching the SSE. No news about any huge redemption

14) Stop Loss - Bill Kraft has a good article that I have filed in the "Stop Loss" thread

15) Catching a Falling Knife ( or Falling Safe ) - I just filed an article in that thread to remind myself not to catch a falling knife ( or falling safe ). However, it's very hard to teach new tricks to an old dog. So I'll probably be catching falling knives and safes again but will try to control my risks through Position Sizing

16) Need to remind myself and just changed my signature:- "Whoever that the gods want to destroy, they first make him confident"

17) WB: Buy Good Companies at Fair Prices NOT Fair Companies at Good Prices

The above is to help me crystalize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use the info above at your own risk. Also, please do feel free to comment. I would like to also hear your kind thoughts and comments..