Not vested. From CIMB:-
• Leading integrated global supply chain manager. Noble supplies agricultural commodities, energy products, metals, minerals and ore globally, along with logistics and financial services. It has supply chain infrastructure and production capabilities, sourcing products from low-cost producing countries and supplying to high demand growth markets.
• Ability to make profits in all markets, as the company is price-hedged. Besides making small spreads from supplying commodities, Noble also earns a return from hard assets (processing, production, storage etc.) and makes arbitrage profits from pricing inefficiencies in various markets.
• Rosy long-term fundamentals. Noble is likely to be one of the first stocks to rebound on any hint of economic stability/recovery. Moreover, with a strong balance sheet and proven business model, it is likely to emerge stronger as competitors fall prey to challenging near-term conditions.
• Initiate with Outperform and target price of S$1.50. We have a target price of S$1.50, set at 5.5x EV/EBITDA, a 15% discount to its historical average of 6.5x on account of challenging near-term conditions and high risk aversion, translating to 8.4x CY10 P/E. Management has proposed a dividend of US$0.044 for FY08, representing a yield of 6.6%.
