Japan 01 (May 08 - Dec 09)

[kennynah]

i go to tokyo...sell them waterproof cardboard boxes...complete with assembly instructions to build into shelters....same concept as ikea furniture

[winston]

Japan to launch 'fresh stimulus package'

TOKYO (AFP) - - Japan is to launch a fresh stimulus package as the world's second largest economy faces a sizeable contraction, a ruling party official and local media said.

Prime Minister Aso Taro will "shortly" announce a plan to compile the fresh economic package, Yoshihide Suga, a senior official of Aso's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), told reporters.

Some LDP members already suggested that the package should be worth 20 trillion yen to 30 trillion yen (217 billion yen to 326 billion yen), Suga said, adding: "I think we need such a size."

Earlier in the day, the close aide to Aso also told a television interview: "We must take action as a matter of course. We have to do something drastic."

In December, Aso announced a stimulus package worth 23 trillion yen, in addition to a 26.9 trillion yen package unveiled in October, as Japan has been in recession in the wake of the global economic crisis.

The Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper and Japan's public broadcaster NHK reported on Sunday that Aso would order the LDP as early as Monday to start working out details of the planned package.

The government will aim at submitting an extra budget to parliament in April to finance the third stimulus since the global economic crisis deepened late last year, the Yomiuri said.

The planned package is likely to feature public projects such as reconstruction of airports, harbours, highways and school buildings, the mass-circulation daily said.

It may also cover measures to expand Japan's environmentally friendly businesses to counter the twin threats of climate change and the economic downturn, the newspaper said.

The move comes with the government scheduled to announce figures on Monday for gross domestic product for the October-December quarter, which some analysts say could show the first double-digit contraction since the mid-1970s.

"The current economic situations are severe," Bank of Japan governor Masaaki Shirakawa told reporters after this weekend's meeting of the Group of Seven financial chiefs in Rome.

Shirakawa signalled the central bank would maintain its easy monetary policy and consider measures to tackle a credit crunch when its policymakers are to hold a regular meeting on Thursday.

Aso has pledged that Japan will be the first developed country to move out of recession, but Economics Minister Kaoru Yosano has warned it is impossible to say when Asia's biggest economy will bottom out.

[millionairemind]

Feb 16, 2009
Japan economy shrinks 12.7%
Worst since 1974

TOKYO - JAPAN'S economy shrank at an annualised pace of 12.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2008 - its worst performance since 1974 - as the recession deepened, official figures showed on Monday.

Asia's largest economy contracted by 3.3 per cent in the three months to December from the previous quarter as exports and factory output slumped due to the global economic crisis, the government said.

It was a third straight quarter of negative economic growth for Japan, which is in the midst of its first recession in seven years.

Exports plunged 13.9 per cent from the previous quarter as demand for Japanese cars, electronics and other goods slumped in recession-hit overseas economies.

Business investment in factories and equipment dropped 5.3 per cent as companies scrambled to reduce their costs to cope with the recession.

Household spending slipped 0.4 per cent as consumers tightened their belts following a wave of job cuts by Japanese companies.

The figures were even worse than the average analyst forecast for an annualised contraction of 11.6 per cent.

The pace of the contraction also picked up sharply compared with the three months to September, when the economy shrank 0.6 per cent from the previous quarter. -- AFP

[millionairemind]

February 16, 2009, 12.37 pm (Singapore time)

Japan revised Dec industrial output -9.8%

TOKYO - Japan's industrial production fell 9.8 per cent in December from a month earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis, revised government data showed on Monday.

That was a bigger fall than the preliminary reading of a 9.6 per cent drop and was the biggest fall on record.

The capacity utilisation index fell 11.8 per cent from a month earlier. -- REUTERS

[iam802]

Japanese seems to be continuing their rounds of musical chairs.... ministers keep resigning.
------
Nakagawa to Resign After Slurring Speech at G-7

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa said he would resign after the opposition party claimed he appeared drunk at a Group of Seven press conference in Rome.

“I deeply apologize to the prime minister, the people and members of parliament for the significant trouble I caused,” Nakagawa told reporters in Tokyo today. Nakagawa said that a medical examination today diagnosed that he was exhausted, in addition to suffering from back pain and a cold.

The resignation is a setback to Prime Minister Taro Aso, whose approval rating has plunged to the second lowest on record for a leader. Nakagawa’s vacancy will leave the nation without a finance minister and banking regulator as the nation grapples with the fastest economic deterioration in more than 30 years.

“This will be a big blow to Aso, who has already become a lame duck,” said Hirotada Asakawa, an independent political analyst in Tokyo. Elections due by September will need to be called under a new leader, Asakawa said.

Since returning from Rome, Nakagawa has said a combination of medications and jet lag caused him to slur his words and nod off at the Feb. 14 press briefing. He said he would step down after fiscal 2009 budget bills are passed by the lower house of parliament.

[LenaHuat]

With those idiotic politicians in charge, with the world's largest greying population, with a bashed up pension system, and worse with no brain streaks of technical innovation in sight .................they will slump in comatose for a long time.

If they are lucky, Japan will recover in 3 years at the fastest.

[Poles]

i think they difference is in the Japanese people...irregardless of how crabby their political leader maybe ....i think we cannot doubt the efficiency & resilience of the Japanese pple on the street.....i feel the potential of their man on the street is way way above ours.

[winston]

Rare deficit raises fears for Japanese economy

Japan has announced a record monthly current account deficit and the first in 13 years, as the global economic downturn choked exports and sent the economy deeper into recession.

The economy has been hammered by a worldwide drop in demand for the cars, high-tech goods and machinery in which it excels, putting the country on course for the worst recession since World War II.

Japan logged a deficit of 172.8 billion yen (HK$14.04 billion) in January in its current account, the broadest measure of trade in goods and services, as exports almost halved from a year earlier, official data showed.

The deficit was the largest since comparable records began in January 1985 and marked a dramatic turnaround from the surplus of 1.164 trillion yen a year earlier.

Historically, Japan has run a large surplus in its current account thanks to brisk foreign demand.

There are fears Japan will report this week the economy shrank even more in the fourth quarter of last year than an initial estimate of a 12.7 percent annualized drop.

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

[winston]

Nikkei ends at new 26-year low AGENCIES

Japan's Nikkei stock index closed down 0.44 percent at a fresh 26-year low after another selloff on Wall Street sparked by bad news from the financial sector.

The index slipped 31.05 points to 7,054.98, ending at the lowest level since October 1982 for a second straight day. The broader Topix fell 7.03 points, or 0.99 percent, to 703.50.

[winston]

A Clear Sign This Market Is Set to Triple By Tom Dyson

In 2003, Morgan Stanley closed its Asian Equity Fund.

When Asia was a popular investment in the mid-1990s, this fund managed over $350 million. But by 2003, the Asian stock markets had fallen in half. The public didn't care about Asia. Morgan Stanley's fund had shrunk to less than $10 million in assets. The management fees couldn't cover the costs, so Morgan Stanley made a business decision and closed the fund.

Between 2003 and 2007, Asian markets soared. Hong Kong's stock market tripled, for example. Singapore's market tripled. Korea's market quadrupled.

In 2000, Morgan Stanley's investment management business "heavily" promoted aggressive technology funds. Even though the market had already started to collapse, the public still wanted to pour their money into technology stocks. So Morgan Stanley's salespeople raised as much money as they could.

Two years later, these aggressive technology investments were worthless.

I took these examples from one of my favorite investment books, Hedgehogging by Barton Biggs. Biggs uses these examples to show why you should always do the opposite of what Wall Street salespeople do. If they're selling out and moving on, you should be getting ready to buy. If they're moving in, you should set a tight stop loss. (Don't sell immediately or you could miss the "mania" stage.)

Wall Street firms are in the business of selling products to the public. They aren't investors. "The public never learns," Biggs says, "and the mutual fund industry can never pass up a money making opportunity."

Right now, Wall Street firms are abandoning Japan.

The Nikkei 225 stock average touched its lowest level in 26 years last week. And according to Bloomberg, Goldman recently cut 200 positions in Tokyo. Nomura is eliminating at least 100 jobs. Citigroup's Japanese brokerage is shedding about 1,000 workers. Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, and Deutsche Bank are also cutting jobs in Japan.

"Demand for equity analysis is dwindling as overseas investors abandon Japanese stocks, with $13 billion sold in the first seven weeks of this year" says Bloomberg.

In last week's DailyWealth, I showed you that the Japanese government is the most bankrupt entity in the world. As a result, I expect the yen and Japanese government bonds are about to enter a massive bear market.

The paradox is, this could be good for Japanese stocks. The Japanese stock market is one of the cheapest stock markets in the world, with a price-to-book ratio of one and a dividend yield of 3%

A lower exchange rate will be just the ticket to spark a rally in the Japanese stock market. But the real boost comes when savers realize their government is broke... For years, the Japanese have piled their money into government bonds yielding 1% and ignored Japanese stocks. But when the yen starts to falter, they'll dump their bonds and pile into stocks for protection.

I'm not saying Japan is due for a big recovery. But stocks don't need a booming economy to rally. Stocks rally when everyone hates them... when they get so depressed that they simply can't fall anymore.

Wall Street firms are abandoning their Japanese stock market businesses. Now is the time to buy. U.S. investors can own a basket of Japanese stocks through the iShares Japan fund (EWJ).